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Wind Clima.ology for a.a.ka. Historica. a.d Future

a.mospheric a.d Clima.e Sciences 2019年第4期9卷 683-702页

作者： Kyle Redilla.Sa.a. T. Pea.l peter a. bieniek John E. Wa.sh a.a.ka.Center for Clima.e a.sessment a.d Policy University of Alaska Fairbanks AK USA Da.tmouth College Hanover NH USA Interna.iona. a.ctic Resea.ch Center University of Alaska Fairbanks AK USA

Wind is a.clima.e va.ia.le with ma.or impa.ts on huma.s, ecosystems a.d infra.tructure, especia.ly in coa.ta. regions with cold clima.es. Clima.e-rela.ed cha.ges in high-wind events therefore ha.e ma.or implica.ions for high-la.itude residents, yet there ha. heretofore been no systema.ic eva.ua.ion of such cha.ges in a.fra.ework spa.ning historica. a.d future timefra.es. In this study, hourly winds from surfa.e sta.ion reports a.d from dyna.ica. downsca.ing of winds simula.ed by two different globa. clima.e models ha.e been synthesized into historica. a.d future wind clima.ologies for a.a.ka. Qua.tile ma.ping procedures a.e used to ca.ibra.e wind simula.ions driven by a. a.mospheric rea.a.ysis, a.d the ca.ibra.ed winds a.e then used to bia.-a.just the full distributions of historica. a.d future winds downsca.ed from the globa. clima.e models. In the resulting clima.ologies, winds a.e genera.ly stronger a. coa.ta. a.d offshore (isla.d) loca.ions tha. a. interior sites, where ca.m conditions a.e frequent in winter. The sea.on of pea. wind speed va.ies from winter in the coa.ta. a.d offshore loca.ions to summer in interior a.ea.. High-wind events determined from the hourly da.a.a.e most frequent during winter a. coa.ta. loca.ions. Projected cha.ges for the la.e 21st century a.e sta.istica.ly significa.t a. ma.y loca.ions, a.d they show a.qua.ita.ively simila. sea.ona.ity in the output from the two models: a. increa.e of mea. wind speeds in the cold sea.on a.d a.decrea.e of mea. wind speeds in the wa.m sea.on. High-wind events a.e projected by both models to become more frequent in the northern a.d western a.a.ka.coa.ta. regions, which a.e precisely the regions in which the protective sea.ice cover ha. decrea.ed (a.d is projected to decrea.e further), pointing to increa.ed risks of coa.ta. flooding a.d erosion.

关键词： Wind Clima.ology a.a.ka Clima.e Impa.ts

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Regiona. Clima.e Model Simula.ion of Surfa.e Moisture Flux Va.ia.ions in Northern Terrestria. Regions

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a.mospheric a.d Clima.e Sciences 2018年第1期8卷 29-54页

作者： Ross Fischer John E. Wa.sh Eugénie S. Euskirchen peter a. bieniek University of Colora.o Boulder USA Interna.iona. a.ctic Resea.ch Center University of Alaska Fairbanks USA Institute of a.ctic Biology University of Alaska Fairbanks USA

The wetness of high-la.itude la.d surfa.es is strongly dependent on the difference between precipita.ion (P) a.d eva.otra.spira.ion (ET). If clima.e models a.e to ca.ture the tra.ectory of surfa.e wetness in high la.itudes, they must be a.le to simula.e the sea.ona.ity a.d va.ia.ions of the surfa.e moisture fluxes, a. well a. the sensitivities to the va.ia.ions to the drivers. In this study, a.combina.ion of regiona. clima.e model output a.d eddy cova.ia.ce mea.urements from flux tower loca.ions in a.a.ka.is used to eva.ua.e model simula.ions of the surfa.e moisture fluxes a.d their va.ia.ions. In pa.ticula., we use the model output a.d the field mea.urements to test the hypothesis tha. tempera.ure (T) is the key driver of va.ia.ions of ET in tundra.regions underla.n by perma.rost, while precipita.ion pla.s a.grea.er role in borea. forest a.ea.. a.though the model’s hydrologic cycle is stronger (la.ger P, la.ger ET) rela.ive to the in situ mea.urements a. a.l the sites, the prominent sea.ona. cycles of P, T, a.d ET a.e ca.tured by the model. The tower mea.urements from a.l sites show a.short period (one or two months) of nega.ive P-ET during summer, indica.ive of surfa.e drying, a.though the model does not show this period of drying a. the inla.d tundra.site. a. a.l the tundra.sites, both the flux tower da.a.a.d the model simula.ions show tha. da.ly a.d wa.m-sea.on tota.s of ET a.e la.gely tempera.ure-driven. Da.ly ET shows a.wea. nega.ive correla.ion with precipita.ion in the mea.urements a.d in the model results for a.l the sites. Precipita.ion is the ma.n driver of yea.-to-yea. va.ia.ions of the sea.ona.ly integra.ed net moisture flux a. a.l the sites, implying tha. precipita.ion will be a. lea.t a. importa.t a. tempera.ure in the future tra.ectory of surfa.e wetness.

关键词： Eva.otra.spira.ion Precipita.ion a.ctic Tundra Borea. Forest Moisture Budget

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