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The Predictability Limit of Oceanic Mesoscale Eddy Tracks in the South China Sea

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1661-1679页

作者： Hailong LIU Pingxiang CHU Yao MENG Mengrong DING pengfei lin Ruiqiang DING pengfei WANG Weipeng ZHENG LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Laoshan Laboratory Qingdao 266237China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Marine Science and Technology College Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan 316022China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100872China Center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Employing the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) technique, this study assesses the quantitative predictability limit of oceanic mesoscale eddy (OME) tracks utilizing three eddy datasets for both annual and seasonal means. Our findings reveal a discernible predictability limit of approximately 39 days for cyclonic eddies (CEs) and 44 days for anticyclonic eddies (AEs) within the South China Sea (SCS). The predictability limit is related to the OME properties and seasons. The long-lived, large-amplitude, and large-radius OMEs tend to have a higher predictability limit. The predictability limit of AE (CE) tracks is highest in autumn (winter) with 52 (53) days and lowest in spring (summer) with 40 (30) days. The spatial distribution of the predictability limit of OME tracks also has seasonal variations, further finding that the area of higher predictability limits often overlaps with periodic OMEs. Additionally, the predictability limit of periodic OME tracks is about 49 days for both CEs and AEs, which is 5-10 days higher than the mean values. Usually, in the SCS, OMEs characterized by high predictability limit values exhibit more extended and smoother trajectories and often move along the northern slope of the SCS.

关键词： predictability mesoscale eddy nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent South China Sea seasonal variability

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Evaluating CMIP6 models in simulating the North Pacific decadal variability in sea surface salinity

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第8期67卷 2661-2680页

作者： Jian CHEN Hailong LIU pengfei lin Wenrong BAI Chengzu BAI Lu WANG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Geo-Information Engineering Xi’an 710054China Beijing Municipal Climate Center Beijing Meteorological BureauBeijing 100089China Space System Department Equipment Department Beijing 100096China

The North Pacific sea surface salinity(SSS)decadal variability(NPSDV)and its potential forcing were evaluated from 25 coupled models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)considering the prospects for decadal climate *** results indicated that the CMIP6 models generally reproduced the spatial patterns of *** large standard deviation of the SSS anomaly over the strong current regions,such as the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension(KOE),North Pacific Current(NPC),California Current System(CCS),and Alaskan Coastal Current(ACC),is reflected in the two leading modes of NPSDV:a dipole with out-of-phase loadings in the KOE-NPC versus CCS-ACC and a monopole with positive loading over the *** order of modes is sensitive to individual models that exhibit discrepancies,especially in temporal phases and power *** autoregressive model of order-1 was used to reconstruct the NPSDV with several forcing *** generally weaker influence of forcings in an autoregressive model of order-1 is partly related to the overestimated response time of NPSDV relative to *** NPSDV variances originate from the persistence of SSS anomalies,but the dominant forcing factors are diverse among *** model diversity for the NPSDV simulation mainly arises from the influence of the tropical El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation through teleconnection on the North Pacific Oscillation or Aleutian Low with timescale ***,models that can reproduce the NPSDV well are not dependent on those with larger impacts from the North Pacific oceanic processes.

关键词： North Pacific Sea surface salinity Decadal variability CMIP6 Leading mode

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Salinity effect-induced ENSO amplitude modulation in association with the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2024年第4期42卷 1019-1036页

作者： Hai ZHI Xiaokun WANG Rong-Hua ZHANG pengfei lin Jifeng QI College of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Marine Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Laoshan Laboratory Qingdao 266237China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP)Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of Oceanologyand Center for Ocean Mega-ScienceChinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China

A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropical Pacific during *** simulating results show that sea surface salinity(SSS)variation in the region exhibits notable and coherent interdecadal variability signal,which is closely associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).As salinity increases or reduces,the SSS modulations on ENSO amplitude during its warm/cold events vary asymmetrically with positive/negative IPO ***,salinity interdecadal variability can enhance or reduce ENSO-related conditions in upper-ocean stratification,contributing noticeably to ENSO *** anomalies associated with the mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness can modulate ENSO amplitude during positive and negative IPO phases,resulting in the asymmetry of sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly in the tropical *** positive IPO phases,SSS interdecadal variability contributes positively to El Niño amplitude but negatively to La Niña amplitude by enhancing or reducing SSS interannual variability,and vice versa during negative IPO ***,the results indicate that the modulation of the ENSO amplitude by the SSS interdecadal variability is 15%-28%during negative IPO phases and 30%-20%during positive IPO phases,***,the SSS interdecadal variability associated with IPO and its modulation on ENSO amplitude in the tropical Pacific are among factors essentially contributing ENSO diversity.

关键词： El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO) ocean salinity variability tropical Pacific upper-ocean stratification

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Intake of tobacco nitrosamines of smokers in various provinces of China and their cancer risk:A meta-analysis

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第7期141卷 249-260页

作者： Xiao Li Zhiwei Ye Jun Wang pengfei lin Xiaojin Zhang Shuguang Xie Chao Chen Research Institute for Environmental Innovation(Suzhou) TsinghuaSuzhouJiangsu 215163China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Organic Pollution Prevention and Control State Key Laboratory of Urban Water Resource and EnvironmentHarbin Institute of TechnologyShenzhen 518055China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control College of Environmental Science and EngineeringPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China

Nitrosamines are a class of carcinogens which have been detected widely in food,water,some pharmaceuticals as well as *** objectives of this paper include reviewing the basic information on tobacco consumption and nitrosamine contents,and assessing the health risks of tobacco nitrosamines exposure to Chinese *** searched the publications in English from“Web of Science”and those in Chinese from the“China National Knowledge Infrastructure”in 2022 and collected 151 literatures with valid *** content of main nitrosamines in tobacco,including 4-(methylnitrosoamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone(NNK),N-nitrosonornicotine(NNN),N-nitrosoanatabine(NAT),N-nitrosoanabasine(NAB),total tobacco-specific nitrosamines(TSNA),and N-nitrosodimethylamine(NDMA)were *** information of daily tobacco consumption of smokers in 30 provinces of China was also ***,the intakes of NNN,NNK,NAT,NAB,TSNAs,and NDMA via tobacco smoke were estimated as 1534ng/day,591 ng/day,685 ng/day,81 ng/day,2543 ng/day,and 484 ng/day by adult smokers in30 provinces,*** cancer risk(CR)values for NNN and NNK inhalation intake were further calculated as 1.44×10^(-5)and 1.95×10^(-4).The CR value for NDMA intake via tobacco smoke(inhalation:1.66×10^(-4))indicates that NDMA is similarly dangerous in tobacco smoke when compared with the *** China,the CR values caused by average nitrosamines intake via various exposures and their order can be estimated as the following:smoke(3.75×10^(-4))>food(1.74×10^(-4))>drinking water(1.38×10^(-5)).Smokers in China averagely suffer 200%of extra cancer risk caused by nitrosamines in tobacco when compared with non-smokers.

关键词： N-nitrosamine Tobacco Cancer risk Tobacco specific nitrosamines(TSNAs) N-nitrosodimethylamine(NDMA)

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Quantifying the Role of the Eddy Transfer Coefficient in Simulating the Response of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation to Enhanced Westerlies in a Coarse-resolution Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1853-1867页

作者： Yiwen LI Hailong LIU pengfei lin Eric PCHASSIGNET Zipeng YU Fanghua WU School of Ocean Sciences China University of GeosciencesBeijing 100083China Laoshan Laboratory Qingdao 266237China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies Florida State UniversityTallahassee 32306FloridaUSA China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081China

This study assesses the capability of a coarse-resolution ocean model to replicate the response of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation(MOC) to intensified westerlies,focusing on the role of the eddy transfer coefficient(κ).κ is a parameter commonly used to represent the velocities induced by unresolved *** findings reveal that a stratification-dependent κ,incorporating spatiotemporal variability,leads to the most robust eddy-induced MOC response,capturing 82% of the reference eddy-resolving *** the eddy-induced velocity into its vertical variation(VV) and spatial structure(SS) components unveils that the enhanced eddy compensation response primarily stems from an augmented SS term,while the introduced VV term weakens the ***,the temporal variability of the stratification-dependent κ emerges as a key factor in enhancing the eddy compensation response to intensified *** experiment with stratification-dependent κ exhibits a more potent eddy compensation response compared to the constant κ,attributed to the structure of κ and the vertical variation of the density *** results underscore the critical role of accurately representing κ in capturing the response of the Southern Ocean MOC and emphasize the significance of the isopycnal slope in modulating the eddy compensation mechanism.

关键词： eddy transfer coefficient mesoscale eddy parameterization enhanced westerlies Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation ocean model

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Correcting Climate Model Sea Surface Temperature Simulations with Generative Adversarial Networks:Climatology,Interannual Variability,and Extremes

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1299-1312页

作者： Ya WANG Gang HUANG Baoxiang PAN pengfei lin Niklas BOERS Weichen TAO Yutong CHEN BO LIU Haijie LI State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Earth System Modelling School of Engineering and DesignTechnical University of MunichOttobrunn 85521Germany Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam 14412Germany Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute University of ExeterExeter EX44QEUK CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

Climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated ***,these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworthiness of future *** these challenges requires addressing internal variability,hindering the direct alignment between model simulations and observations,and thwarting conventional supervised learning ***,we employ an unsupervised Cycle-consistent Generative Adversarial Network(CycleGAN),to correct daily Sea Surface Temperature(SST)simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2(CESM2).Our results reveal that the CycleGAN not only corrects climatological biases but also improves the simulation of major dynamic modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode,as well as SST ***,it substantially corrects climatological SST biases,decreasing the globally averaged Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)by 58%.Intriguingly,the CycleGAN effectively addresses the well-known excessive westward bias in ENSO SST anomalies,a common issue in climate models that traditional methods,like quantile mapping,struggle to ***,it substantially improves the simulation of SST extremes,raising the pattern correlation coefficient(PCC)from 0.56 to 0.88 and lowering the RMSE from 0.5 to *** enhancement is attributed to better representations of interannual,intraseasonal,and synoptic scales *** study offers a novel approach to correct global SST simulations and underscores its effectiveness across different time scales and primary dynamical modes.

关键词： generative adversarial networks model bias deep learning El Niño-Southern Oscillation marine heatwaves

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基于就医活动推断的老年人公交就医可达性研究

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交通运输系统工程与信息 2024年第1期24卷 221-229页

作者：翁剑成张云飞林鹏飞李文杰北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室北京100124 北京工业大学信息学部北京100124

为准确评估老年人公交就医出行的实际可达性,本文基于老年卡数据构建公交出行链,提出基于公交出行链的老年人就医活动推断方法,获取老年人的实际就医出行需求和出行时间。引入公交实时到站数据以反映公交实际运营水平对就医可达性的影响... 详细信息

为准确评估老年人公交就医出行的实际可达性,本文基于老年卡数据构建公交出行链,提出基于公交出行链的老年人就医活动推断方法,获取老年人的实际就医出行需求和出行时间。引入公交实时到站数据以反映公交实际运营水平对就医可达性的影响,构建面向出行全过程的实际出行成本矩阵,包括等候时间、乘车时间、换乘时间。考虑不同医院服务供给能力差异构建综合服务能力指标,引入分级服务半径和高斯距离衰减函数,提出基于改进两步移动搜索法的老年人公交就医可达性计算方法。以北京市六环内区域为例进行实证分析,结果表明:老年人公交就医可达性整体呈现由中心向外围递减的趋势,在城市外围区域其分布也存在空间异质性,五环路外的东部和西部区域可达性较好,而北部、东北部区域的可达性相对较差;各区域高峰时段的平均可达性均明显低于平峰时段的平均可达性。本文可为提升老年人就医出行可达性和公交系统适老化水平提供支撑。

关键词：城市交通实际可达性两步移动搜索法老年乘客就医出行链

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基于多特征融合的人像HDR图像处理算法

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液晶与显示 2024年第8期39卷 1024-1036页

作者：吴春林张永爱林志贤郭太良林鹏飞林坚普福州大学先进制造学院福建泉州362200 福州大学物理与信息工程学院福建福州350108 东京大学信息科学技术学院日本东京113-8657

基于深度学习的高动态范围(High Dynamic Range,HDR)图像处理算法在处理含有人像的图片时存在皮肤偏色问题。针对此问题,本文提出了一种基于多特征融合的人像HDR图像处理算法U2HDRnet。该算法由皮肤特征提取模块、三边特征提取模块、色... 详细信息

基于深度学习的高动态范围(High Dynamic Range,HDR)图像处理算法在处理含有人像的图片时存在皮肤偏色问题。针对此问题,本文提出了一种基于多特征融合的人像HDR图像处理算法U2HDRnet。该算法由皮肤特征提取模块、三边特征提取模块、色彩重建模块3部分构成。首先,皮肤特征提取模块分离出皮肤区域的颜色和位置信息;其次,三边特征提取模块分别提取图片的局部特征、全局特征和语义特征,并与皮肤特征融合;最后,色彩重建模块对网格做空间和颜色深度上的插值。此外,本文引入改进的自注意力与卷积融合模块以提升HDR的处理效果;同时本文还制作了人像HDR数据集PortraitHDR,填补了该领域内数据集的空白。实验结果显示,U2HDRnet的PSNR达31.42 dB,SSIM达0.985,均优于目前常见的HDR算法,在获得高质量人像HDR图像的同时避免了皮肤的失真。

关键词：深度学习高动态范围皮肤特征提取注意力机制色彩重建

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中新世中低纬度海道变化对大西洋经圈翻转流和气候变化影响的模拟研究

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海洋地质与第四纪地质 2024年第4期44卷 32-40页

作者：魏吉林刘海龙郑伟鹏林鹏飞赵彦中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院北京100049 崂山实验室青岛266237 中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟科学中心北京100029 中国科学院青藏高原研究所大陆碰撞和高原隆升重点实验室北京100101

自中中新世以来,特提斯海道和巴拿马海道的开合状态可能直接影响了大西洋经圈翻转流(AMOC)的强度和空间形态演变。但是,当前对这两处关键的中低纬度海道与AMOC之间联系的系统性研究较少。本研究基于中中新世时期的边界条件,利用耦合气... 详细信息

自中中新世以来,特提斯海道和巴拿马海道的开合状态可能直接影响了大西洋经圈翻转流(AMOC)的强度和空间形态演变。但是,当前对这两处关键的中低纬度海道与AMOC之间联系的系统性研究较少。本研究基于中中新世时期的边界条件,利用耦合气候模式开展了中中新世气候模拟试验,以及特提斯海道和巴拿马海道先后关闭的敏感性试验。模拟结果显示,开放的特提斯海道和巴拿马海道分别为热带印度洋和太平洋海水进入北大西洋提供了“捷径”,同时分别向北大西洋输运高盐度海水和低盐度海水,对AMOC强度的变化起着相反的作用。特提斯海道开放增强了AMOC,这抵消了巴拿马海道开放导致的对AMOC的减弱。这两处中低纬度海道的关闭均能引起全球海表温度的南北不对称响应,分界线大致位于巴拿马海道所在纬度。本研究表明,只有特提斯海道和巴拿马海道关闭时,才会形成现代意义上的AMOC空间结构,因此这两处中低纬度海道的关闭时间对研究AMOC演变具有重要意义。

关键词：大西洋经圈翻转流中中新世大暖期淡水输运巴拿马海道特提斯海道

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利用长短期记忆网络LSTM对赤道太平洋海表面温度短期预报

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大气科学 2024年第2期48卷 745-754页

作者：张桃林鹏飞刘海龙郑伟鹏王鹏飞徐天亮李逸文刘娟陈铖中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球物理流体动力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院北京100049 哈尔滨工业大学电子与信息工程学院哈尔滨150001 北京应用气象研究所北京100029 西北工业大学航海学院西安710072

海表面温度作为海洋中一个最重要的变量,对全球气候、海洋生态等有很大的影响,因此十分有必要对海表面温度(SST)进行预报。深度学习具备高效的数据处理能力,但目前利用深度学习对整个赤道太平洋的SST短期预报及预报技巧的研究仍较少。... 详细信息

海表面温度作为海洋中一个最重要的变量,对全球气候、海洋生态等有很大的影响,因此十分有必要对海表面温度(SST)进行预报。深度学习具备高效的数据处理能力,但目前利用深度学习对整个赤道太平洋的SST短期预报及预报技巧的研究仍较少。本文基于最优插值海表面温度(OISST)的日平均SST数据,利用长短期记忆(LSTM)网络构建了未来10天赤道太平洋(10°S~10°N,120°E~80°W)SST的逐日预报模型。LSTM预报模型利用1982~2010年的观测数据进行训练,2011~2020年的观测数据作为初值进行预报和检验评估。结果表明:赤道太平洋东部地区预报均方根误差(RMSE)大于中、西部,东部预报第1天RMSE为0.6℃左右,而中、西部均小于0.3℃。在不同的年际变化位相,预报RMSE在拉尼娜出现时期最大,正常年份次之,厄尔尼诺时期最小,RMSE在拉尼娜时期比在厄尔尼诺时期可达20%。预报偏差整体表现为东正、西负。相关预报技巧上,中部最好,可预报天数基本为10天以上,赤道冷舌附近可预报天数为4~7天,赤道西边部分地区可预报天数为3天。预报模型在赤道太平洋东部地区各月份预报技巧普遍低于西部地区,相比较而言各区域10、11月份预报技巧最低。总的来说,基于LSTM构建的SST预报模型能很好地捕捉到SST在时序上的演变特征,在不同案例中预报表现良好。同时该预报模型依靠数据驱动,能迅速且较好地预报未来10天以内的日平均SST的短期变化。

关键词：海表面温度 LSTM (long short-term memory) 短期预报赤道太平洋

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