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强化科技基础推进气象现代化——第29届中国气象学会年会

作者： Zheng Xiangdong 1 ,Shen Chengde 2,Wan Guojiang 3,Tang Jie 4,Liu Kexin 5 1.chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences,beijing,100081,p.r.china 2.State Key Laboratory of Isotope Geochronology and Geochemistry,Guanzhou Institute of Geochemistry,chinese Academy of Sciences,Guanzhou 510640,p.r.china3.3.State Key Laboratory of Environment Geochemistry,Institute of Geochemistry,chinese Academy of Sciences,Guiyang,550002 p.r.china 4.center of meteorological sounding,chinese meteorological administration,beijing,100081 5.State Key laboratory of Nuclear physics and Technology & Institute of Heavy Ion physics,peking University,beijing 100871,china

Mass concentration,13 C pDB(13 δC) of water-insoluble and refractory carbon(WIrC)as the proxy for black carbon(BC) chemically extracted from total suspended particles(TSp) samples collected from December 2002 to January 2004(50 samples) and from October 2005 to May 2006(29 samples) at Waliguan(36.287oN 100.898oE,3810 m) are *** concentration of WIrC was 1183 ± 120 ng/m 3,with the highest values in spring-winter,and its variation was in agreement with the optical BC concentration measured by aethalometer-but WIrC have higher values,especially in winter-spring with factor of *** seasonal mass concentration difference between WIrC and optical BC perhaps indicates that water soluble / insoluble carbon aerosols dominate the fraction of summer-autumn/winter-spring carbonaceous aerosols at the *** 13 δC of-25.3 ± 0.8‰ revealed that C3 plant burning was the major source of the WIrC.14 C pMC for the later 29 samples revealed that the overall mean fraction of contemporary-derived carbon(f C) of BC was 67.2 ± 7.7%(n = 29).The f C and BC concentration was strongly associated with air parcel *** f C accompanying moist air-parcels were transported from eastern Waliguan in autumn and early winter,but the continuous fossil combustion heating in the region decreased f C in late winter and ***-storm transport through the remote areas of western may have caused high f C even though mass concentrations of TSp and BC were abnormally ***-to-week variations of 210 pb activity concentration in TSp and percentage of fossil-derived carbon(f f) were in agreement,providing some evidence that coal combustion was the dominant fossil source of BC at Waliguan.

关键词： water-insoluble and refractory carbon(WIrC) mass concentration 13δC 14C Mt.Waliguan

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relationship between the Asian-pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North pacific

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第3期51卷 380-385页

作者： ZHOU BoTao1, CUI Xuan2 & ZHAO ping3 1 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2 National meteorological center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 3 chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China National meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between the Asian-pacific oscillation (ApO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North pacific (WNp) in summer is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of ob- served data. The result has shown clearly that ApO is significantly and positively correlated to the tropical cyclone frequency in the WNp. If ApO is above (below) the normal in summer, more (less) tropical cyclones will tend to appear in the WNp. The present study also addresses the large-scale at- mospheric general circulation changes underlying the linkage between ApO and the WNp tropical cy- clone frequency. It follows that a positive phase of summer ApO is concurrent with weakened as well as northward and eastward located western pacific subtropical high (WpSH), low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and reduced vertical zonal wind shear in the WNp, providing favorable envi- ronment for the tropical cyclone genesis, and thus more tropical cyclones will come into being, and vice versa.

关键词： Asian-pacific oscillation western North pacific tropical cyclone atmospheric circulation

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Climatic change and urbanization effect in china

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 1993年第1期5卷 23-29页

作者： Zhao Zongci Academy of meteorological Science, State meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Academy of meteorological Science State Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China. China

Climatic change and urbanization effect in china during the last 39 years were investigated. It is found that a warming of about 0.23℃ for the annual temperature has been noticed from 1951 to 1989. The warmings of about 0.78 ℃ in winter and 0.34 3℃ in spring have been shown. It is also presented that a cooling of about -0.27℃ in summer has been indicated. The bigger cities are warmer than smaller cities in china. The dried trends in the annual precipitation during the last 39 years were presented. The precipitation decreased obviously in summer all over china. The bigger cities were drier than smaller cities.

关键词： climatic change urbanization effect global warming.

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Simulation of 1991-2005 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_regCM 1.0

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chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2,3& DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china meteorological administration, Guangzhou 510080, china 2 Guangdong Climate center, Guangzhou 510080, china 3 chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 4 National Climate center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou China Guangdong Climate center Guangzhou China chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China National Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

By using BCC_regCM 1.0 (regCM for short) from beijing Climate center (BCC), china meteorological administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2005 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) regCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, regCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3) In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13, respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 32 d, 3 d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, regCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

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predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

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progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 129-135页

作者： Hongli ren Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction,a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction(prEC)is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical ***- yses show that the prEC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction ***,the prEC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of china meteorological Admin- istration/National Climate center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Ninflo3 region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate *** is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the prEC can improve predictive skills to some *** the prEC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.

关键词： Short-term climate prediction Seasonal prediction predictor Error correction

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Sensitivity experiments and assessment of climatic changes in china induced by greenhouse effect

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 1990年第4期2卷 73-84页

作者： Zhao Zongci and Ding YihuiAcademy of meteorological Science,State meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china

Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in china .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3-6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in china as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in china due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in china, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.

关键词： greenhouse effect climatic changes global warming.

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Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North pacific?

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chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2 & CUI Xuan 3 1 National Climate center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china 2 Nansen-Zhu International research center,Institute of Atmospheric physics,chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 100029,china 3 National meteorological center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china National Climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China National meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North pacific (WNpTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNpTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNpTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

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A comparative analysis on two solar proton events

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chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第1期52卷 47-51页

作者： LE GuiMing1,2,3,4, HAN YanBen2 & ZHANG YiJun3 1 Key Laboratory of radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2 National Astronomical Observatories, chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100012, china 3 chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 4 National center for Space Weather, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Key Laboratory of radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites China Meteorological Administration Beijing China National Astronomical Observatoires Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar proton Events (SpE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 r⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 58r⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 355 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SpE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.

关键词：太阳质子 CME 太阳耀斑太阳系

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An integrated decision method for prediction of tropical cyclone movement by using genetic algorithm

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第3期48卷 429-440页

作者： YANG Yuanqin1 & WANG Jizhi2 1. National meteorological center, beijing 100081,china 2. chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china National meteorological center Beijing China chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China

In this study an integrated decision method for the multi-prediction results of tropical cyclone movements by using genetic algorithm (GA) has been adopted. A genetic learning artifi- cial neural network (GLANN) as a learning mechanism for track prediction was developed through training with the huge samples of typhoon tracks from 1884 to 2002. The prediction of typhoon motion is to consider how to suit the dynamic change of environment, where typhoon passed through. The neural network structure is described by GA. A fitness function for choice of GA is given to approach the maximum of fitness (the minimum of the errors). parallel comparing analyses for prediction abilities of unusual typhoon tracks in recent years by GLANN with multi-forecast methods were conducted. More types of cases were employed in the comparing analyses, which consist of the typhoon, Winnie, No.11, in 1997, characterized by a long life over the ocean and in the mainland with severe effect on china, the 10 unusual typhoon tracks in the 1990s, the tracks with landfall and affected action in 1998 and the typhoons born in the Northwestern pacific and the South china Sea in 2000, including the 24—48 h forecast, etc. The results indicated that for prediction ability of typhoon tracks, specially for unusual typhoons, GA decision-making developed in this study is superior to the others.

关键词： genetic algorithm, integrated decision, prediction of tropical cyclone.

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Numerical experiments for the impacts of temperature and precipitation variation on the growth and development of winter wheat

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 1993年第2期5卷 194-200页

作者： Zhang YuAgrometeorological research center, chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china Agrometeorological research center Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 10081 China. China

The growth process of winter wheat was simulated by CErES-wheat model assuming the daily temperature increase -1, 0,1, 2℃ and daily precipitation increase -20, -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, and 20 percent, respectively. The case study site is Zhenjiang City of Jiangsu province in the east china. Simulation results show that the impacts of temperature variation on winter wheat is stronger than that of precipitation. Climate warming would speed development rate and shorten phonological period. In general, the adverse effect of climate change on grain yield is greater than that of its beneficial effect, especially when the climate becoming cooler and dryer. The increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation would reduce the plant extractablc soil water content.

关键词： climate change winter wheat CErES-wheat model.

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