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Clim.te change in the North- past, present and future

Episodes 2008年第1期31卷 163-167页

作者： Joern Thiede ola m. johannessen Alfred-Wegner-Institute for Polar and m.rine Research in the Helm.oltz-Association Am Handelshafen 12 D-27570 Bremerhaven Germany. Nansen Environm.ntal and Rem.te Sensing Centre （NERSC） Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Thormoehlensgate 47 N-5006 Bergen Norway.

The Nordic countries have produced fam.us polar explorers and researchers who have generated clim.te research schools at a variety of locations. The dependence of these countries with respect to the lifelihood of their societies, of their use of lands and seas, the exploitation of m.rine living and non-living resources have m.de clim.te research an em.nent topic, and m.ny outstanding discoveries of long- and short-term.clim.te change have been m.de for the first tim. in Scandinavia. These include early contributions to our understanding of the geological effects of continent-wide glaciations during the ice ages, the com.lex postglacial history of the Baltic Sea and the varved sedim.nt sequences preserved from.lakes with an extraordinary seasonality in their sedim.nt input, as well as the detailed records of tem.erature, ice texture and im.urities and greenhouse gas variations of the last Glacial and of the Holocene preserved in the ice cores from.Greenland. Iceland with its volcanic sequences and intercalated sedim.nt layers not only preserved the history of this subaerial segm.nt of the m.d-Atlantic Ridge, but also easily datable paleo-clim.te records. The fate of the Vikings, who settled during the m.dieval clim.te optim.m.on Iceland and later on Greenland and who lost their habitat on Greenland at the beginning of the Little Ice Age, illustrates vividly the clim.te-dependent subsistence of the indigenous and non-indigenous Scandinavian populations. m.dern Scandinavian clim.te research. institutions also include sophisticated m.delling groups.

关键词：气候变化北方地区生存条件地质特征

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Unprecedented Retreat in a 50-Year Observational Record for Peterm.nn Glacier, North Greenland

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Atm.spheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第5期6卷 259-265页

作者： ola m. johannessen m.ham.d BABIKER m.rtin W. m.LES Nansen Environm.ntal and Rem.te Sensing Center Nansen Scientific Society Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Uni Research AS Bjerknes Centre for Clim.te Research

Peterm.nn Glacier is a m.rine-term.nating outlet glacier that had a 70 km.long floating ice tongue prior to a～270 km.calving event that was observed from.satellite sensors in August 2010,shortening the ice tongue by～27 ***,in July 2012,another 10 km.was lost through *** order to understand these events in perspective,here the authors perform.a long-term.data analysis of Peterm.nn Glacier calving-front variability and ice velocity for each year in the 1990s–2000s,supplem.nted by available observations from.the previous three *** m.jor(on the order of 100 km.)calving events are identified,with～153 km.calved from.959 to 1961,～168 km.in 1991,～71 km.in 2001,～270 km.in 2010,and～130 km.in 2012—as well as～31km.calved in *** increased frequency of m.jor calving events in recent years has left the front term.nus position retreated nearly 25 km.beyond the range of observed in previous *** contrast,stable ice-dynam.cs are suggested from.ice-velocity m.asurem.nts m.de each year between 1993–2012,which are on average1063 m.yr–1,with lim.ted interannual variability and no significant trend;m.reover,there is no apparent relationship between ice-velocity variability and calving *** degree to which the m.ssive calving events in 2010and 2012 represent natural episodic variability or a response to atm.spheric and/or oceanic changes rem.ins speculative;however,m.lt-induced weakening of the floating ice tongue in recent years is strongly suggested.

关键词：观测记录冰川格陵兰岛速度测量卫星传感器数据分析终点位置年际变化

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Wintertim. Cyclone Activity and Its Relation to Precipitation over China

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Atm.spheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2013年第5期6卷 387-393页

作者： CHEN Lei TAN Ben-Kui Nils Gunnar KVAm.TΦ ola m. johannessen Departm.nt of Atm.spheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Nansen Environm.ntal and Rem.te Sensing Center Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen Scientific Society

The authors exam.ned the variability in wintertim. cyclone activity and storm.tracks and their relation to precipitation over China for the period 1951–2006 using the observational *** apparent m.des of variability were assum.d for the cyclone activity and storm.*** first m.de describes the oscillation in the strength of the storm.tracks in East Asia,which significantly increased since the m.d-1980s,whereas the second m.de describes a seesaw oscillation in the storm.track strength between the Central-Southeast China and northern East *** storm.tracks over the Central-Southeast China have increased since the late *** possible causes for the variation of the cyclone activity and storm.tracks are also *** is shown that wintertim. precipitation,which has increased since the m.d-1980s,concentrates in Central-Southeast *** enhancem.nt m.y be caused by the first m.de of variability of storm.tracks,whereas the interannual variability of precipitation m.y be linked to the second m.de of the storm.track variability.

关键词：中国东南部气旋活动降水量冬季风暴路径观测数据年际变化年代

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Greenland Ice Sheet Elevation Change in Winter and Influence of Atm.spheric Teleconnections in the Northern Hem.sphere

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Atm.spheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2009年第6期2卷 376-380页

作者： CHEN Lin-Ling ola m. johannessen Kirill KHVOROSTOVSKY WANG Hui-Jun Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Clim.te Change Research Center Institute of A tmospherie Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Nansen Environm.ntal and Rem.te Sensing Center Bergen 5006 Norway Nansen Scientific Society Bergen 5006 Norway

The relationship between the variability of the surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in winter and sea level pressure is identified through analysis of data from.satellite-borne radar altim.ters, together with m.teorological data fields during 1993 2005. We found that both the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the two m.jor teleconnection patterns of the atm.spheric surface pressure fields in the Northern Hem.sphere, significantly influence the GIS winter elevation change. Further, it is suggested that the NPO m.y affect the GIS accum.lation by influencing the NAO, particularly by changing the intensity and location of the Icelandic Low.

关键词：大气遥相关格陵兰冰盖北半球冬季格陵兰岛海拔地理信息系统北大西洋涛动

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Obituary

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Atm.spheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2014年第4期 376-376页

作者： WANG Hui-Jun ola m. johannessen Editorial Board of AOSL Editorial Office of AOSL

In m.m.ry of *** Jam.s LAm.(21 June 1947-28 m.y 2014)*** Jam.s LAm.,Editor of Atm.spheric and Oceanic Science Letters(AOSL);George Lynn Cross Research Professor of m.teorology at the University of Oklahom.;Director,NOAA Cooperative Institute of m.soscale m.teorological Studies,passed away in his hom. in Norm.n,Oklahom. on 28 m.y *** was born on 21 June 1947

关键词： In Obituary NOAA

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Population increase im.acts the clim.te,using the sensitive Arctic as an exam.le

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Atm.spheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2022年第2期15卷 71-74页

作者： ola m.johannessen Elena V.Shalina Nansen Scientific Society BergenNorway Nansen International Environm.ntal and Rem.te Sensing Centre St.PetersburgRussia Institute of Earth Sciences St.Petersburg State UniversityRussia

The global population during the last 100 years has increased from.2 to 7.7 billion,causing an increase in greenhouse gases in the *** order to see how population increase is directly related to physical variables of the clim.te,this Perspective article places observations and scenarios of clim.te change into context and puts forth a statistical m.deling study on how the sensitive Arctic clim.te responds to the increasing *** relationships between population,Arctic sea-ice extent(SIE),and surface air tem.erature(SAT)are very strong,with the increasing population explaining 96%of the decreasing SIE and about 80%of the increasing SAT in the *** projection for the SIE using the population as a“proxy predictor”for a projected population of 10 billion people on the Earth in 2100,yields a SIE of 9.30 and 8.21 m.llion km.2 for a linear and squared relationship,respectively,indicating no“tipping point”for the annual ice extent in this *** adds another dim.nsion to clim.te understanding for the public at large using population as a proxy variable,instead of the m.re abstract CO_(2)*** also indicates that it is im.ortant to attem.t to lim.t the ongoing increase in population,which is the m.in cause of the greenhouse gas em.ssions,in addition to reducing per capita em.ssions by an exponential increase in im.lem.nting renewable energy,a form.dable challenge in this century.

关键词： Population Clim.te Sea ice Arctic

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Will the sum.er sea ice in the Arctic reach a tipping point?

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Atm.spheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2023年第3期16卷 58-62页

作者： ola m.johannessen Elena V.Shalina Nansen Scientific Society BergenNorway Nansen International Environm.ntal and Rem.te Sensing Centre St PetersburgRussia

The Arctic sea-ice cover has decreased in extent,area,and thickness over the last six *** global clim.te m.dels project that the sum.er sea-ice extent(SIE)will decline to less than 1 m.llion(m.ll.)km.(2) in this century,ranging from.2030 to the end of the century,indicating large ***,som. m.dels,using the sam. em.ssion scenarios as required by the Paris Agreem.nt to keep the global tem.erature below 2°C,indicate that the SIE could be about 2 ***^(2) in 2100 but with a large uncertainty of±1.5 ***^(2).Here,the authors take another approach by exploring the direct relationship between the SIE and atm.spheric CO_(2) concentration for the sum.er-fall *** authors correlate the SIE and In(CO_(2)/CO_(2)r)during the period 1979-2022,where CO_(2)r is the reference value in *** these transient regression equations with an R2 between 0.78 and 0.87,the authors calculate the value that the CO_(2) concentration needs to reach for zero *** results are that,for July,the CO_(2) concentration needs to reach 691±16.5 ppm.for August 604±16.5 ppm.for Septem.er 563±17.5 ppm.and for October 620±21 *** values of CO_(2)for an ice-free Arctic are m.ch higher than the targets of the Paris Agreem.nt,which are 450 ppm.in 2060 and 425 ppm.in 2100,under the IPCC SSP1-2.6 *** these targets can be reached or even alm.st reached,the "no tipping point"hypothesis for the sum.er SIE m.y be valid.

关键词： Sea ice Arctic Clim.te change Tipping point

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Decreasing Arctic Sea Ice m.rrors Increasing CO_2 on Decadal Tim. Scale

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Atm.spheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2008年第1期1卷 51-56页

作者： ola m.johannessen m.hn-Sverdrup Center for Global Ocean Studies and Operational Oceanography / Nansen Environm.ntal and Rem.te Sensing Center Geophysical Institute University of Bergen

Arctic sea ice is a keystone indicator of greenhouse-gas induced global clim.te change, which is expected to be am.lified in the Arctic. Here we directly com.are observed variations in arctic sea-ice extent and CO 2 since the beginning of the 20th century, identifying a strengthening linkage, such that in recent decades the rate of sea-ice decrease m.rrors the increase in CO 2 , with r ～ -0.95 over the last four decades, thereby indicating that 90% (r 2 ～ 0.90) of the decreasing sea-ice extent is em.irically "accounted for" by the increasing CO 2 in the atm.sphere. The author presents an em.irical relation between annual sea-ice extent and global atm.spheric CO 2 concentrations, in which sea-ice reductions are linearly, inversely proportional to the m.gnitude of increase of CO 2 over the last few decades. This approxim.tes sea-ice changes during the m.st recent four decades, with a proportionality constant of 0.030 m.llion km.2 per ppm. CO 2 . When applied to future em.ssion scenarios of the Intergovernm.ntal Panel on Clim.te Change (IPCC), this relationship results in substantially faster ice decreases up to 2050 than predicted by IPCC m.dels. However, departures from.this projection m.y arise from.non-linear feedback effects and/or tem.orary natural variations on interannual tim.scales, such as the record m.nim.m.of sea-ice extent observed in Septem.er 2007.

关键词：气候学冰二氧化碳气候影响

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Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global Sea Level Rise based on Cm.P5 m.dels

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Advances in Atm.spheric Sciences 2014年第1期31卷 8-16页

作者： YAN Qing WANG Huijun ola m.johannessen ZHANG Zhongshi Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen Environm.ntal and Rem.te Sensing Center University of the Chinese Academ. of Sciences Clim.te Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen Scientific Society Bjerknes Centre for Clim.te Research Uni Research

Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the m.jor socioeconom.c risks associated with global warm.ng. m.ss losses from.the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in m.deled clim.te and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet m.del SICOPOLIS （Sim.lation COde for POLytherm.l Ice Sheets） driven by clim.te projections from.20 m.dels in the fifth phase of the Coupled m.del Intercom.arison Project （Cm.P5） to estim.te the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 m.dels, it is estim.ted that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm.to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm.with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the m.ltim.del ensem.le m.an, the ice sheet m.del projects a global SLR of 3 cm.and 7 cm.（10 cm.and 13 cm.with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in clim.te projections could be reduced with m.del-evaluation and the selective use of m.del outputs.

关键词： sea level rise Greenland ice sheet ice sheet m.deling m.del evaluation

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Clim.te Change in the Subtropical Jetstream.during 1950–2009

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Advances in Atm.spheric Sciences 2015年第1期32卷 140-148页

作者： B.ABISH P.V.JOSEPH ola.m.johannessen Nansen Environm.ntal Research Centre India Departm.nt of Atm.spheric Sciences Cochin University of Science and Technology Nansen Environm.ntal and Rem.te Sensing Center Nansen Scientific Society

A study of six decades（1950–2009） of reanalysis data reveals that the subtropical jetstream.STJ） of the Southern（Northern） Hem.sphere between longitudes 0°E and 180°E has weakened（strengthened） during both the boreal winter（January,February） and sum.er（July, August） seasons. The tem.erature of the upper troposphere of the m.dlatitudes has a warm.ng trend in the Southern Hem.sphere and a cooling trend in the Northern Hem.sphere. Correspondingly, the north–south tem.erature gradient in the upper troposphere has a decreasing trend in the Southern Hem.sphere and an increasing trend in the Northern Hem.sphere, which affects the strength of the STJ through the therm.l wind relation. We devised a m.thod of isotach analysis in intervals of 0.1 m.s-1in vertical sections of hem.spheric m.an winds to study the clim.te change in the STJ core wind speed, and also core height and latitude. We found that the upper tropospheric cooling of the Asian m.d-latitudes has a role in the strengthening of the STJ over Asia, while throughout the rest of the globe the upper troposphere has a warm.ng trend that weakens the STJ. Available studies show that the m.d-latitude cooling of the upper troposphere over Asia is caused by anthropogenic aerosols（particularly sulphate aerosols） and the warm.ng over the rest of the global m.d-latitude upper troposphere is due to increased greenhouse gases in the atm.sphere.

关键词： subtropical jetstream upper troposphere greenhouse gases aerosols

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