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Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration in the Brazilian Earth System Model Simulations

Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2023年第9期11卷 1-19页

作者： Fernanda Casagrande Elisângela Finotti Ronald Buss de Souza Regiane Moura noeli franchi leonardo Earth System Numerical Modeling Division (DIMNT) National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Cachoeira Paulista Brazil School of Meteorology Santa Maria Federal University (UFSM) Santa Maria Brazil Nuclear and Energy Research Institute (IPEN) S&#227o Paulo Brazil

Sea ice is an important and complex component of the Earth’s system, acting as both an indicator and an amplifier of climate change. Here, we investigated the ability of the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5) and four state-of-the-art climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Version 5 (CMIP5) to represent the Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) seasonal cycle. We validated the sea ice model’s performance using satellite data from 1980 to 2005 and calculated the skill and RMSE of each model. BESM-OA2.5 results for melt-freeze transitions in the Southern Ocean are consistent with CMIP5 models and satellite data. In February, when the sea ice reaches its annual minimum, the BESM-OA2.5 has the best fit among the models. However, in September, when the Antarctic sea ice reaches its annual maximum, the SIC simulated by BESM-OA2.5 indicated the largest area covered by ice compared to satellite, particularly on the Polar Front. Similar results were found in the CMIP5 models evaluated here. We suggest that the large bias simulated in the Polar Front is related to the inability of the sea ice model to represent the complex ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. The subject is considered a hot topic in climate change studies and lacks conclusive answers.

关键词： Southern Ocean Climate Models Satellite CMIP5 Simulations Climate Validation

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