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Analysis of Nigerian electricity Generation Multi Year Tariff Order Pricing Model

energy and Power engineering 2017年第10期9卷 541-554页

作者： nnamdi b. anosike.jude.e. dara Ugochukwu C. Ngwaka Frances O. enemuoh Mechanical engineering Department Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka Nigeria Mechanical engineering Department Enugu State University of Science and Technology Enugu Nigeria electrical engineering Department Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka Nigeria

The Multi Year Tariff Order (MYTO) is the Nigerian electricity Regulatory Commission (NeRC) pricing framework for determining the Nigerian electricity Supply Industry (NeSI) pricing model. One of the ob.ectives of the NeRC’s MYTO pricing model is to ensure regulated electricity end user tariff without compromising return on investment. Achieving this ob.ective is imperative to attract investors in the growing Nigerian electricity market. However, NeSI has hitherto b.en faced with challenges ranging from its inab.lity to provide sufficient power to its customers to not b.ing viab.e enough to provide return on capital invested. In this paper, sensitivity analysis of power plant operation and performance parameters on the cost of electricity (Coe) generation using MYTO (power generation) pricing model were evaluated. Thermodynamic modeling and simulation of an open cycle gas turb.ne (OCGT) was carried out to augment scarce data on power plant performance and operation in Nigeria. Sensitivity analysis was carried out using prob.b.listic method b.sed on Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) implemented in commercial software (@ Risk®). The result highlighted sensitivity of the model input parameters to cost of electricity generation b.sed on technical and financial assumptions of MYTO model. Seven most influential parameters affecting generation cost were identified. These parameters and their correlation coefficients are given as: 1) foreign exchange rate, 0.76;2) cost of fuel, 0.51;3) thermal efficiency, -0.23;4) variab.e operation and maintenance cost, 0.22;5) fixed operating and maintenance cost, -0.03;6) capacity factor, -0.02;and 7) average capacity degradation, 0.01. b.sed on the gas turb.ne engine and input parameter distrib.tions statistics for this study, the generation cost lies b.tween 9.84 to 15.45 N/kWh and the prob.b.lities of Coe within these values were estab.ished.

关键词： Nigerian electricity Market Generation Multi Year Tariff Order (MYTO) Comb.stion Turb.ne electricity Price Uncertainty Government Interventions

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