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易贡藏布冰川边缘地带暴雨泥石流与冰川融雪泥石流特征差异分析

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成都理工大学学报（自然科学版） 2024年第2期51卷 345-360页

作者：张瀛玉龙陈宁生彭泰鑫侯儒宁李志杜鹏西藏大学工学院拉萨850000 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所成都610041 高原科学与可持续发展研究院西宁810016 中国科学院大学工程科学学院北京100049

本文为探究冰川边缘地带暴雨泥石流与冰川融雪泥石流的特征差异,以易贡藏布流域中下游的64条泥石流沟为研究对象,在实地考察的基础上,通过遥感解译、建立Matrix Laboratory数学模型等方法,得到了两者在形成发育条件上和下游段威胁范围... 详细信息

本文为探究冰川边缘地带暴雨泥石流与冰川融雪泥石流的特征差异,以易贡藏布流域中下游的64条泥石流沟为研究对象,在实地考察的基础上,通过遥感解译、建立Matrix Laboratory数学模型等方法,得到了两者在形成发育条件上和下游段威胁范围的差异。结果表明:(1)在地形地貌上,冰川融雪泥石流和暴雨泥石流在相对高差、纵向剖面形状指数等地形因子上有不同或相似的峰值数量分布。(2)在物源上,冰川融雪泥石流单沟最大、最小物源储量分别为6740×10^(4)m^(3),253×10^(4)m^(3),暴雨泥石流单沟最大、最小物源储量分别为228×10^(4)m^(3),1.5×10^(4)m^(3)。(3)在流量上,冰川融雪泥石流最大、最小流量分别为1498.2 m^(3)/s,105.4 m^(3)/s,暴雨泥石流最大、最小流量分别为126.7 m^(3)/s,2.0 m^(3)/s。两者在流量上有明显差异的原因,除了汇水面积相差大,还因冰川融雪泥石流有冰川融水与积雪融水的补给。其百年一遇重现期的冰川融水峰值流量最大、最小值分别为79.7 m^(3)/s,0.6 m^(3)/s,融雪当量为32.52 mm/d。(4)冰川融雪泥石流堆积区固体松散物质冲出距离远大于暴雨泥石流,冰川融雪泥石流单沟最大冲出距离为414.3 m,暴雨泥石流单沟最大冲出距离为43.6 m。对该区域内不同泥石流之间的发育机制差异进行研究,可为类似地区的泥石流防治提供一定的参考。

关键词：易贡藏布发育特征暴雨泥石流冰川融雪泥石流

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Effects of Tectonic Setting and Hydraulic Properties on Silent Large-Scale Landslides:A Case Study of the Zhaobishan Landslide,China

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第4期14卷 600-617页

作者： Shufeng Tian Guisheng Hu ningsheng chen Mahfuzur Rahman Huayong Ni Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela Key Lab of Mountain Hazards and Surface Processes Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability Kathmandu Center for Research and Education Chinese Academy of Sciences-Tribhuvan University Department of Civil Engineering International University of Business Agriculture and Technology(IUBAT) Department of Civil Engineering Kunsan National University Institute of Exploration Technology China Geological Survey Department of Forest Sciences Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental SciencesUniversidad de La Frontera

Unlike strong earthquake-triggered or heavy rainfall-triggered landslides,silent large-scale landslides(SLL) occur without significant triggering factors and cause unexpected significant disaster risks and mass *** the initiation mechanism of SLLs is crucial for risk *** this study,the mechanism of the Zhaobishan SLL was investigated,and the SLL was jointly controlled by weak-soil(fractured rock mass) and strong-water(abundant water replenishment)conditions under the impact of active tectonism and complex hydraulic *** tectonic uplift,high fault density,and historical earthquakes led to weak-soil conditions conducive to the Zhaobishan *** combined effect of unique lithology,antiform,and cultivated land contributed to the water replenishment characteristics of extensive runoff confluence(3.16 times that of the landslide body) and supported long-distance groundwater replenishment,thereby forming strongwater conditions for the *** amplified seepage amount caused the strength of the soil mass on the sliding surface to decrease to 0.4 times its initial strength,eventually triggering the Zhaobishan SLL,which occurred 4.6 days after the peak ***,the landslide deposits have accumulated on the semi-diagenetic clay rock,thereby controlling the subsequent recurring debris flows in the Lengzi *** reduce disaster risk of SLL in vulnerable mountainous regions,the water confluence area behind the main scarp of the landslides and the hysteresis characteristics between landslides and peak rainfall should be further considered,and recurring debris flows following massive landslides also should be focused.

关键词： Debris flow Hydraulic properties Risk reduction Runoff amplification Silent large-scale landslides (SLL) Tectonic setting

三工河小流域泥石流生态—岩土工程调控措施减缓土壤侵蚀的定量研究

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成都理工大学学报（自然科学版） 2024年第1期51卷 117-129页

作者：吴铭洋陈宁生杨溢侯儒宁李志昆明理工大学公共安全与应急管理学院昆明650093 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所成都610041 高原科学与可持续发展研究院西宁810016 中国科学院大学北京100049 西藏大学工学院拉萨850013

为探讨泥石流治理措施对小流域土壤侵蚀的影响,以天池上游三工河流域为研究对象,在实地考察的基础上,通过地形图叠加、遥感解译和Google Earth Engine(GEE)云计算等手段,实测计算了该流域1971~2003年、2008~2020年两期土壤侵蚀模数,定... 详细信息

为探讨泥石流治理措施对小流域土壤侵蚀的影响,以天池上游三工河流域为研究对象,在实地考察的基础上,通过地形图叠加、遥感解译和Google Earth Engine(GEE)云计算等手段,实测计算了该流域1971~2003年、2008~2020年两期土壤侵蚀模数,定量评估了在该流域开展的泥石流生态—岩土工程调控措施对小流域生态和土壤侵蚀的影响。研究发现:(1)三工河流域平均植被覆盖度经泥石流综合治理后增加11.34%,高植被覆盖度面积增加16.93%,泥石流沟道及河谷的植被覆盖度明显提升;(2)三工河流域1971~2003年平均侵蚀模数为0.34 mm/a,较北天山山地流域同期平均侵蚀速率高出131%,造成该现象的原因是过度放牧、滥砍滥伐等人为因素激发山洪泥石流的爆发导致流域生态环境恶化;(3)流域经生态—岩土工程调控后(2008~2020年),平均侵蚀模数降低至治理前的15%(0.051 mm/a),为北天山地区山地流域同期平均侵蚀模数的34%。

关键词：泥石流综合治理工程土壤侵蚀植被覆盖度定量评估

基于机器学习的伊犁河谷黄土区泥石流易发性评估

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中国地质灾害与防治学报 2024年第3期35卷 129-140页

作者：李志陈宁生侯儒宁吴铭洋张瀛玉龙杜鹏西藏大学工学院西藏拉萨850000 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所四川成都610041 高原科学与可持续发展研究院青海西宁810016 中国科学院大学北京100049 昆明理工大学公共安全与应急管理学院云南昆明650093

伊犁河谷地处中-哈边境,南北疆结合带,是丝绸之路经济带的前沿,该区域生态环境脆弱,泥石流灾害多发。本研究采用随机森林(RF)、支持向量机(SVM)、逻辑回归(LR)以及决策树(DT)四种机器学习模型,模型输入为遥感判别和野外考察确定的398条... 详细信息

伊犁河谷地处中-哈边境,南北疆结合带,是丝绸之路经济带的前沿,该区域生态环境脆弱,泥石流灾害多发。本研究采用随机森林(RF)、支持向量机(SVM)、逻辑回归(LR)以及决策树(DT)四种机器学习模型,模型输入为遥感判别和野外考察确定的398条泥石流沟以及14个特征参数,计算各个评价因子权重并对泥石流易发性进行评价,最后绘制ROC曲线以及计算曲线下面积(AUC)对四种机器学习的模型的准确性进行评价。研究结果表明:(1)泥石流高易发区主要位于深切河谷地区的天山山地以及山前坡地的黄土覆盖区域;(2)地形起伏度、多年平均降雨量、干旱指数是控制泥石流空间发育的前三个重要因素;(3)四种模型的验证数据集AUC值分别为0.938(RF)、0.932(SVM)、0.89(LR)、0.879(DT),随机森林模型在该区域的易发性评价中具有更好的预测能力;(4)研究区黄土的生态植被被破坏是泥石流多发的重要原因,应该重点进行生态治理和保护,减少水土流失,从源头治理泥石流灾害。

关键词：泥石流伊犁河谷黄土易发性随机森林

Multi-wing butterfly effects on catastrophic rockslides

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Geoscience Frontiers 2023年第6期14卷 20-29页

作者： ningsheng chen Shufeng Tian Fawu Wang Peijun Shi Lihong Liu Miaoyuan Xiao Enlong Liu Wenqing Tang Mahfuzur Rahman Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela Key Lab of Mountain Hazards and Surface Processes Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability Xining 810016China Kathmandu Center for Research and Education Chinese Academy of Sciences-Tribhuvan UniversityBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China College of Civil Engineering Tongji UniversityShanghai 200092China State Key Laboratory of Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Safety Technology Center of Sichuan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration Chengdu 610046China Engineering Design&Research Institute of Sichuan University Co. LtdChengdu 610041China State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering College of Water Resources and HydropowerSichuan UniversityChengdu 610065China chengdu Center China Geological SurveyChengdu 610081China Department of Civil Engineering International University of Business Agriculture and TechnologyDhaka 1230Bangladesh Department of Forest Sciences Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental SciencesUniversity of La FronteraTemuco 4780000Chile

The catastrophic rockslide,which frequently triggers numerous severe disasters worldwide,has drawn much attention globally;however,understanding the initiation mechanism of catastrophic rockslides in the absence of typical single triggering factors related to strong seismic activity or torrential precipitation continues to be challenging within the global scientific *** study aims to determine the mechanism of the three largest catastrophic rockslides in the eastern Tibetan Plateau,Yigong,Xinmo,and Baige,over the past 20 years using field investigation,remote sensing,and runoff *** of the conventional driving factors of heavy rainfall and strong earthquakes,the multi-wing butterfly effects(MWBE)of climatic factors and weak earthquakes are for the first time identified as drivers of the catastrophic rockslide ***,strong tectonic uplift,fast fluvial incision,high-density faults,and large regional water confluence formed the slopes in the critical regime,creating the source conditions of ***,the MWBE of early dry-heat events and antecedent rainfall,combined with imminent weak earthquakes,initiated ***,the delayed amplified runoff moving toward the sliding surface and lowering the strength of the locking-rock segment constituted the fundamental mechanism of the MWBE on *** catastrophic rockslide was ultimately inferred to be a nonlinear chaotic process;however,prediction and forecasting of rockslide based on the MWBE in the early stages are possible and *** finding presents a new perspective concerning forecasting progressive landslides.

关键词： Catastrophic rockslide Slope failure Multi-wing butterfly effect Tibetan Plateau Delayed amplified runoff

大规模沟谷型泥石流成因与减灾启示——以黑水县谷汝沟“7·14”泥石流为例

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安全与环境工程 2024年第1期31卷 172-181页

作者：黄洪胡桂胜陈宁生倪化勇中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所四川成都610041 中国科学院大学工程科学学院北京100049 高原科学与可持续发展研究院青海西宁810016 中国地质调查局探矿工艺研究所四川成都611734

沟谷型泥石流具有谷坡陡峻、相对高差大、沟道坡度大等特点,往往形成大规模的泥石流灾害。2021年7月14日20时许,黑水县谷汝沟发生大规模泥石流灾害,造成直接经济损失3300万元。为提高和完善泥石流灾害的预测预警手段与减灾水平,以沟谷... 详细信息

沟谷型泥石流具有谷坡陡峻、相对高差大、沟道坡度大等特点,往往形成大规模的泥石流灾害。2021年7月14日20时许,黑水县谷汝沟发生大规模泥石流灾害,造成直接经济损失3300万元。为提高和完善泥石流灾害的预测预警手段与减灾水平,以沟谷型泥石流谷汝沟“7·14”泥石流为典型研究对象,通过现场勘察、模型计算、流域地貌信息熵和气象分析等方法,揭示谷汝沟“7·14”泥石流特征,分析其成因,预测其未来发展趋势。结果表明:谷汝沟“7·14”泥石流容重为1.83g/cm3,属于黏性石流,平均流速为11.2m/s,泥石流峰值流量达到991.2 m3/s;流域处于壮年偏幼期的地貌发育阶段,为谷汝沟“7·14”泥石流暴发提供了充足的动力势能条件,49.7mm的日降雨量是泥石流的激发因素;根据灰色灾变预测模型,谷汝沟将在2027年、2034年、2042年暴发泥石流灾害。研究成果有助于完善沟谷型泥石流的预测预警,可为其他地区泥石流防灾减灾提供参考。

关键词：沟谷型泥石流形成机制预测预警流域地貌信息熵灰色灾变预测模型谷汝沟泥石流

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Location-allocation modeling for emergency evacuation planning with GIS and remote sensing:A case study of Northeast Bangladesh

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Geoscience Frontiers 2021年第3期12卷 169-185页

作者： Mahfuzur Rahman ningsheng chen MdMonirul Islam Ashraf Dewan Hamid Reza Pourghasemi Rana Muhammad AliWashakh Nirdesh Nepal Shufeng Tian Hamid Faiz Mehtab Alam Naveed Ahmed Key Laboratory for Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment(IMHE)Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Chengdu 610041China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(UCAS) Beijing 100049China Department of Civil Engineering International University of Business Agriculture and Technology(IUBAT)Dhaka 1230Bangladesh School of Earth and Planetary Sciences Curtin UniversityKent StBentleyWA 6102Australia Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering College of AgricultureShiraz UniversityShirazIran School of Architecture Neijiang Normal UniversityNeijiang 641100China Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Global Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies Kathmandu 3084Nepal

This work developed models to identify optimal spatial distribution of emergency evacuation centers(EECs)such as schools,colleges,hospitals,and fire stations to improve flood emergency planning in the Sylhet region of northeastern *** use of location-allocation models(LAMs)for evacuation in regard to flood victims is essential to minimize disaster *** the first step,flood susceptibility maps were developed using machine learning models(MLMs),including:Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation(LM-BP)neural network and decision trees(DT)and multi-criteria decision making(MCDM)*** of the MLMs and MCDM techniques were assessed considering the area under the receiver operating characteristic(AUROC)*** approaches in a geographic information system(GIS)for four well-known LAM problems affecting emergency rescue time are proposed:maximal covering location problem(MCLP),the maximize attendance(MA),p-median problem(PMP),and the location set covering problem(LSCP).The results showed that existing EECs were not optimally distributed,and that some areas were not adequately served by EECs(i.e.,not all demand points could be reached within a 60-min travel time).We concluded that the proposed models can be used to improve planning of the distribution of EECs,and that application of the models could contribute to reducing human casualties,property losses,and improve emergency operation.

关键词： Natural disasters Emergency evacuation centers Flooding Machine learning Multi-criteria decision making Location-allocation model

The Critical Rainfall Characteristics for Torrents and Debris Flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake Stricken Area

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Journal of Mountain Science 2009年第4期6卷 362-372页

作者： chen ningsheng YANG chenglin ZHOU Wei HU Guisheng LI Huan David Han Key Lab of Mountain Hazards and Surface Processes Chinese Academy of Sciences Chengdu China610041 Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment ChineseAcademy of Sciences Chengdu China 610041 College of Water Resource & Hydropower ofSCU Chengdu China 610065 d Department of Civil Engineering University of Bristol UK Department of Civil Engineering University of Bristol UK

Critical rainfall assessment is a very important tool for hazard management of torrents and debris flows in mountainous areas. The Wenchuan Earthquake 2008 caused huge casualties and property damages in the earthquake-stricken area,which also generated large quantities of loose solid materials and increased occurrence probabilities of debris flows. There is an urgent need to quantify the critical rainfall distribution in the area so that better hazard management could be planned and if real time rainfall forecast is available,torrent and debris flow early-warning could be issued in advance. This study is based on 49-year observations (1954-2003) of up to 678 torrent and debris flow events. Detailed contour maps of 1 hour and 24 hour critical rainfalls have been generated (Due to the data limitation,there was insufficient 10 minute critical rainfall to make its contour map). Generally,the contour maps from 1 hour and 24 hours have similar patterns. Three zones with low,medium and high critical rainfalls have been identified. The characteristics of the critical rainfall zones are linked with the local vegetation cover and land forms. Further studies and observations are needed to validate the finding and improve the contour maps.

关键词：地震灾区降雨特征泥石流种子汶川临界雨量等值线图灾害管理

Calculation of the debris flow concentration based on clay content

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2003年第Z1期46卷 163-174页

作者： chen ningsheng, CUI Peng, LIU Zhonggang & WEI Fangqiang Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, chengdu 610041, China Chinese Acad Sci Inst Mt Hazards & Environm Chengdu 610041 Peoples R China Minist Water Resources Chengdu 610041 Peoples R China

The debris flow clay content has very tremendous influence on its concentration (γC). It is reported that the concentration can be calculated by applying the relative polynomial based on the clay content. Here one polynomial model and one logarithm model to calculate the concentration based on the clay content for both the ordinary debris flow and viscous debris flow are obtained. The result derives from the statistics and analysis of the relationship between the debris flow concentrations and clay content in 45 debris flow sites located in the southwest of China. The models can be applied for the concentration calculation to those debris flows that are impossible to observe. The models are available to calculate the debris flow concentration, the principles of which are in the clay content affecting on the debris flow formation, movement and suspending particle diameter. The mechanism of the relationship of the clay content and concentration is clear and reliable. The debris flow is usually of micro-viscous when the clay content is low (<3%), by analyzing the developing tendency on the basics of the relationship between the clay content and debris flow concentration. Indeed, the less the clay content, the less the concentration for most debris flows. The debris flow tends to become the water rock flow or the hyperconcentrated flow with the clay content decrease. Through statistics it is apt to transform the soil into the viscous debris flow when the clay content of ranges is in 3%-18%. Its concentration increases with the increasing of the clay content when the clay content is between 5% and 10%. But the value decreases with the increasing of the clay content when the clay content is between 10% and 18%. It is apt to transform the soil into the mudflow, when the clay content exceeds 18%. The concentration of the mudflow usually decreases with the increase of the clay content, and this developing tendency reverses to that of the micro-viscous debris flow. There is m

关键词： clay content, debris flow, concentration.