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Skilful Forecasts of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2082-2091页

作者： Philip E.BETT Nick DUNSTONE nicola GOLDING Doug SMITH Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating *** forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern *** paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six *** skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently ***,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño *** potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.

关键词： seasonal forecasting interannual forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian summer monsoon

Epidemiology of acute and chronic hepatitis B and delta over the last 5 decades in Italy

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2014年第24期20卷 7635-7643页

作者： Evangelista Sagnelli Caterina Sagnelli Mariantonietta Pisaturo Margherita Macera nicola Coppola Department of Mental Health and Public Medicine Section of Infectious DiseasesSecond University of Naples80131 NaplesItaly Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine and Surgery "F.Magrassi e A.Lanzara" Second University of Naples80131 NaplesItaly

The spread of hepatitis B virus(HBV)infection has gradually decreased in Italy in the last 5 decades as shown by the steady reduction in the incidence rates of acute hepatitis B,from 10/100000 inhabitants in1984 to 0.85/100000 in 2012,and by the reduced prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen(HBsAg)-positive cases among chronic hepatitis patients with different etiologies,from 60%in 1975 to about 10%in *** prevalence of HBsAg chronic carriers in the general population also decreased from nearly 3%in the 1980s to 1%in *** to HBV by its characteristics of defective virus,the hepatitis delta virus(HDV)has shown a similar epidemiological impact on the Italian population over *** incidence of acute HDV infection decreased from 3.2/100000 inhabitants in 1987 to 0.8/100000 in 2010 and the prevalence of HDV infection in HBsAg chronic carriers decreased from24%in 1990 to 8.5%in *** the beneficial effects of HBV mass vaccination introduced in 1991,the decreased endemicity of HBV and HDV infection in Italy paralleled the improvement in screening blood donations,the higher standard of living and impressive reduction in the birth rate associated with a marked reduction in the family size.A further contribution to the decline in HBV and HDV infections most probably came from the media campaigns to prevent the spread of human immunodeficiency virus infection by focusing the attention of the general population on the same routes of transmission of viral infections such as unsafe sexual intercourse and parenteral exposures of different kinds.

关键词： Acute hepatitis B Acute hepatitis delta Chronic viral hepatitis Hepatitis B virus epidemiology Hepatitis delta virus epidemiology

Integrating acupuncture:are there positive health outcomes for women?

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Journal of Zhejiang University-Science B(Biomedicine & Biotechnology) 2017年第3期18卷 233-238页

作者： nicola ROBINSON School of Health and Social Care London South Bank University London SE10AA UK

The key health issues for women tend to be primarily associated with the female reproductive system. There are also other gender priorities and consequences associated with ageing, which require effective interventions. Acupuncture is used worldwide and its evidence base is increasing on both mechanisms of action and its effectiveness in clinical care. Although acupuncture may be a valuable addition to healthcare for some conditions, it is rarely fully integrated into mainstream Western medicine clinical practice. Inadequate design and poor reporting of clinical trials have been barriers. Additionally systematic reviews and meta-analyses have tended to be equivocal and have reported that there is insufficient evidence for its recommendation. Future research should focus on ensuring good trial design including cost effectiveness and qualitative data and using a more pragmatic stance which reflects acupuncture in clinical practice. Undoubtedly, effective interventions are always needed to ensure the best health outcomes and address preventable deaths, morbidities, and disabilities among women but integration will be compromised unless underpinned by good evidence.

关键词： Acupuncture Women's health Evidence-based medicine Acupuncture mechanisms of action Integration Health outcomes

Electric Drive for an In-wheel Fractional-slot Axial Flux Machine

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电力电子技术 2008年第10期42卷 7-10页

作者： Luigi Alberti nicola Bianchi Department of Electrical Engineering University of Padova via Gradenigo 61A 1-35131 Padova Italy

This paper describes the electric drive for an in-wheel fractional-slot axial flux machine,designed for achieving a wide flux-weakening operating *** using a slotted stator with fractional-slot windings and additional cores enclosing end windings,the axial flux machine reaches a wide constant power speed *** machine is designed for increasing flux-weakening capability while obtaining low harmonic back-electromotive force and low cogging torque.A 10 N.m axial flux machine exhibiting 3 to 1 flux-weakening speed range has been built.A flux-weakening controller,able to maximize the output torque in the flux-weakening region,is designed and *** goodness of both design and control algorithm is proved by experimental ***,such a fractional-slot machine has not only *** losses are very high,and they have to be properly considered during the design process.

关键词：电气传动技术轴向磁机电子技术传动系统

Transarterial radioembolization vs chemoembolization for hepatocarcinoma patients:A systematic review and metaanalysis

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World Journal of Hepatology 2016年第18期8卷 770-778页

作者： Antonio Facciorusso Gaetano Serviddio nicola Muscatiello Gastroenterology Unit Department of Medical SciencesUniversity of Foggia InternalMedicine Unit University of Foggia

AIM: To compare the efficacy and safety of yttrium-90 radioembolization(Y90RE) and transarterial chemoembolization(TACE) in hepatocellular carcinoma patients. METHODS: Bibliographic research was conducted on main scientific databases. When there was no statistically significant heterogeneity, pooled effects were calculated using a fixed-effects model by means of Mantel-Haenszel test, otherwise, a random-effects model was used with Der Simonian and Laird test. Summary estimates were expressed in terms of odds ratios(ORs) and 95%CI. The probability of publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and with Begg and Mazumdar's test. Sensitivity analysis was finally conducted using the method of excluding extreme ***: A total of 10 studies were analyzed, of which 2 randomized controlled trials. Survival rate(SR) assessed at 1 year showed an absolute similarity between the two treatment groups(OR = 1.01, 95%CI: 0.78-1.31, P = 0.93). As long as time elapsed since the treatment, ORs for survival rate tended to significantly increase, thus meaning better long-term outcomes in patients who underwent Y90RE(2-year SR: OR = 1.43, 1.08-1.89, P = 0.01; 3-year SR: OR = 1.48, 1.03-2.13, P = 0.04). Meta-analysis of plotted hazard ratios(HRs) determined a non-significant overall estimate in favor of Y90RE(HR = 0.91, 0.80-1.04, P = 0.16). Y90 RE showed a statistically significant benefit as compared to TACE in terms of higher progression-free survival rateassessed at 1 year(OR = 1.67; 95%CI: 1.10-2.55; P = 0.02). Pooled analyses do not revealed a statistically significant increase in OR for tumor objective responses after Y90 RE with respect to TACE(OR = 1.22, 95%CI: 0.69-2.16, P = 0.50). A non-significant trend in favor of Y90 RE was observed according to adverse event rate(OR = 0.70, 0.38-1.30, P = 0.26).CONCLUSION: Our meta-analysis reveals that Y90 RE and TACE show similar effects in terms of survival, response rate and safety profile, although tumor progression is dela

关键词： Yttrium-90 radioembolization Transarterial chemoembolization Hepatocellular carcinoma Survival Prognosis Recurrence

Towards a Climate Service for the Tea Industry:A Collaborative Approach between the UK and China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第12期41卷 2289-2299页

作者： Stacey NEW Shaojuan LI Tongwen ZHAO Elisabeth THOMPSON nicola BOWN Tim MITCHELL Amy WATERSON Jennifer H WEEKS Jing YANG Rosie OAKES Tianjun ZHOU nicola GOLDING UK Met Office Exeter EX13PBUK Yunnan University of Finance and Economics Yunnan Key Laboratory for Plateau Mountain Land UseKunming 650021China University of Leeds LeedsLS29JTUK Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China

Tea is an important global commodity,with important tea-growing regions spanning across South America,Africa,and Asia,and burgeoning smaller-scale and artisanal tea production in the UK and *** each of these regions,the quality and quantity of tea production,with their economic and social consequences,are highly sensitive to variations in the climate on both short-term weather,seasonal and climate change *** provision of tailored climate information in a timely and accessible manner through the development,delivery and use of climate services can help tea-farmers and other relevant stakeholders better understand the impacts of climate variability and climate change on decision-making and a range of adaptive *** paper presents an overview of the Tea-CUP project(Co-developing Useful Predictions),a joint initiative between UK and Chinese partners,which aims to develop and implement solutions for improving robust ***-production principles are core,ensuring that the resultant climate services are usable and useful;users'needs are met through close engagement and joint research and *** paper also reports on the exchange of knowledge and experiences,such as between tea growers in China and the UK,which has resulted from this collaborative work,fostering global knowledge sharing,enriching understanding,and driving innovation by integrating diverse perspectives and expertise from different *** is an unintended but valuable side-effect of the collaborative approach taken and highlights the benefits of a highly relational and multidisciplinary approach to climate services development that will inform future work in the field.

关键词： climate services co-production tea industry knowledge exchange

Short-term forecast in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Application of a weighted and cumulative average daily growth rate to an exponential decay model

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 212-221页

作者： nicola Bartolomeo Paolo Trerotoli Gabriella Serio Department of Biomedical Science and Human Oncology University of Bari Aldo MoroPiazza Giulio Cesare 1170124BariItaly

To estimate the size of the novel coronavirus(COVID-19)outbreak in the early stage in Italy,this paper introduces the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate(WR)to evaluate an epidemic *** the basis of an exponential decay model(EDM),we provide estimations of the WR in four-time intervals from February 27 to April 07,*** calibrating the parameters of the EDM to the reported data in Hubei Province of China,we also attempt to forecast the evolution of the *** compare the EDM applied to WR and the Gompertz model,which is based on exponential decay and is often used to estimate cumulative ***,we assess the performance of each model to short-term forecast of the epidemic,and to predict the final epidemic *** on the official counts for confirmed cases,the model applied to data from February 27 until the 17th of March estimate that the cumulative number of infected in Italy could reach 131,280(with a credibility interval 71,415-263,501)by April 25(credibility interval April 12 to May 3).With the data available until the 24st of March the peak date should be reached on May 3(April 23 to May 23)with 197,179 cumulative infections expected(130,033e315,269);with data available until the 31st of March the peak should be reached on May 4(April 25 to May 18)with 202,210 cumulative infections expected(155.235 e270,737);with data available until the 07st of April the peak should be reached on May 3(April 26 toMay 11)with 191,586(160,861-232,023)cumulative infections *** on the average mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),cumulated infections forecasts provided by the EDM applied to WR performed better across all scenarios than the Gompertz *** exponential decay model applied to the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate appears to be useful in estimating the number of cases and peak of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy and the model was more reliable in the exponential growth phase.

关键词： Covid-19 Coronavirus Italy Short-term forecasts Daily grow rate Exponential decay model

Smart cities and urban networks:are smart networks what we need?

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Journal of Management Analytics 2015年第4期2卷 285-294页

作者： nicola Ianuale Duccio Schiavon Enrico Capobianco Quantitas S.r.l. VEGAScience&Technology Park of VeniceItaly Center for Computational Science University of MiamiMiamiUSA

Metropolitan areas have become very important subjects at political,social and economic *** draw information from sources of data and official statistics aimed to operate classification in a quite static *** parallel,the idea of a smart city has been largely promoted in recent years,becoming a paradigm of continuous ***,cities have been called smart in so many ways that it is almost impossible to formulate any generally accepted *** to the role of social media,which is now dominant in modern societies,we evaluate the impact of urban networks in the metropolitan area *** particular,we revisit the latter in light of the functions of networks referred to transportation systems and‘big data’associated to *** measure the impact of both transportation networks and big data networks,establishing their centrality and addressing the current needs.

关键词： smart cities metropolitan areas networks

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International Journal of Ophthalmology(English edition) 2016年第10期9卷 1506-1517页

作者： nicola Pescosolido Andrea Barbato Rossella Giannotti Chiara Komaiha Fiammetta Lenarduzzi Department of Cardiovascular RespiratoryNephrologicAnesthesiologic and Geriatric SciencesSapienza University of Rome Department of Sense Organs Sapienza University of Rome

The crystalline lens is a transparent,biconvex structure in the eye that,along with the cornea,helps to refract light to be focused on the retina and,by changing shape,it adjusts focal distance（accommodation）.The three classes of structural proteins found in the lens areα,β,and γ *** proteins make up more than 90% of the total dry mass of the eye *** components which can be found are sugars,lipids,water,several antioxidants and low weight *** ageing changes occur in the lens,it causes a gradual reduction in transparency,presbyopia and an increase in the scattering and aberration of light waves as well as a degradation of the optical quality of the *** main changes that occur with aging are： 1） reduced diffusion of water from the outside to the inside of the lens and from its cortical to its nuclear zone; 2）crystalline change due to the accumulation of high molecular weight aggregates and insoluble proteins; 3）production of advanced glycation end products（AGEs）,lipid accumulation,reduction of reduced glutathione content and destruction of ascorbic *** if effective strategies in preventing cataract onset are not already known,good results have been reached in some cases with oral administration of antioxidant substances such as caffeine,pyruvic acid,epigallocatechin gallate（EGCG）,α-lipoic acid and ascorbic ***,methionine sulfoxide reductase A（MSRA） over expression could protect lens cells both in presence and in absence of oxidative stress-induced ***,promising results have been obtained by reducing ultraviolet-induced oxidative damage.

关键词： antioxidants cataract crystalline eye lens kynurenines ultraviolet radiations