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Skilful Forecasts of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2082-2091页

作者： Philip E.BETT Nick DUNSTONE nicola golding Doug SMITH Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating *** forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern *** paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six *** skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently ***,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño *** potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.

关键词： seasonal forecasting interannual forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian summer monsoon

Verification of the 2019 GloSea5 Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecast for East China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 917-925页

作者： Joanne CAMP Philip E.BETT nicola golding Chris D.HEWITT Timothy D.MITCHELL Adam A.SCAIFE Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX 13PBUK University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK

A prototype climate service was developed and trialled in early 2019 to provide seasonal forecast of the June–July–August(JJA) tropical cyclone(TC) landfall risk for the East China region ahead of the forthcoming typhoon *** forecasts were produced in both March and April 2019 and a final forecast was released to the China Meteorological Administration(CMA) on 1 May 2019. The trial service was produced by using the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system(GloSea5), and a forecast of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) index was used to infer the TC landfall risk based on a simple linear regression between historical model WPSH indices and observed TC landfalls in East China. The forecast method shows significant skill for forecasting the JJA TC landfall risk in East China with up to three-month lead time, with the greatest skill for predictions initialized in May. The 2019 forecast provided good guidance of the near-average TC activity observed in East China in JJA 2019. Success of the forecast adds confidence to an improved climate service ahead of the 2020 typhoon season.

关键词： seasonal forecasting typhoons tropical cyclones(TCs) landfall risk East China western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)

Towards a Climate Service for the Tea Industry:A Collaborative Approach between the UK and China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第12期41卷 2289-2299页

作者： Stacey NEW Shaojuan LI Tongwen ZHAO Elisabeth THOMPSON nicola BOWN Tim MITCHELL Amy WATERSON Jennifer H WEEKS Jing YANG Rosie OAKES Tianjun ZHOU nicola golding UK Met Office Exeter EX13PBUK Yunnan University of Finance and Economics Yunnan Key Laboratory for Plateau Mountain Land UseKunming 650021China University of Leeds LeedsLS29JTUK Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875China Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China

Tea is an important global commodity,with important tea-growing regions spanning across South America,Africa,and Asia,and burgeoning smaller-scale and artisanal tea production in the UK and *** each of these regions,the quality and quantity of tea production,with their economic and social consequences,are highly sensitive to variations in the climate on both short-term weather,seasonal and climate change *** provision of tailored climate information in a timely and accessible manner through the development,delivery and use of climate services can help tea-farmers and other relevant stakeholders better understand the impacts of climate variability and climate change on decision-making and a range of adaptive *** paper presents an overview of the Tea-CUP project(Co-developing Useful Predictions),a joint initiative between UK and Chinese partners,which aims to develop and implement solutions for improving robust ***-production principles are core,ensuring that the resultant climate services are usable and useful;users'needs are met through close engagement and joint research and *** paper also reports on the exchange of knowledge and experiences,such as between tea growers in China and the UK,which has resulted from this collaborative work,fostering global knowledge sharing,enriching understanding,and driving innovation by integrating diverse perspectives and expertise from different *** is an unintended but valuable side-effect of the collaborative approach taken and highlights the benefits of a highly relational and multidisciplinary approach to climate services development that will inform future work in the field.

关键词： climate services co-production tea industry knowledge exchange

The Process and Benefits of Developing Prototype Climate Services——Examples in China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 893-903页

作者： Chris D.HEWITT nicola golding Peiqun ZHANG Tyrone DUNBAR Philip E.BETT Joanne CAMP Timothy D.MITCHELL Edward POPE Met Office Exeter EX 13PBUK University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia Beijing Climate Center/National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Changes in climate pose major challenges to society, and so decision-makers need actionable climate information to inform their planning and policies to make society more resilient to climatic changes. Climate services are being developed to provide such actionable climate information. The successful development and use of climate services benefits greatly from close engagement between developers, providers, and users of the services. The Climate Science for Service Partnership China(CSSP China) is a China–UK collaboration fostering closer engagement between climate scientists, providers of climate services, and users of climate services. We describe the process within CSSP China of co-developing climate services through trials with users to revise and improve a prototype. Examples are provided covering various scientific capabilities, user needs, and parts of China. The development process is yielding many benefits, such as increasing the engagement between providers and users, making users more aware of how climate information can be of use in their decision-making, giving the climate service providers a better understanding of the users’ requirements for climate information, and shaping future scientific research and development. In addition to the benefits, we also document some challenges that have emerged, along with ways of alleviating them. We have two key recommendations from our experiences: make the time and space for effective engagement between the users and developers of any climate service;bring the needs of the users in to the design and delivery of the climate service as early as possible and throughout the development cycle.

关键词： climate services prototypes user engagement

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第5期34卷 904-916页

作者： Philip E.BETT nicola MARTIN Adam A.SCAIFE Nick DUNSTONE Gill M.MARTIN nicola golding Joanne CAMP Peiqun ZHANG Chris D.HEWITT Leon HERMANSON Chaofan LI Hong-Li REN Ying LIU Min LIU Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EXI 3PBUK Plymouth Marine Laboratory Plymouth PL13DHUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterDevon EX44QFUK Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba QLD 4350Australia Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Wuhan Regional Climate Center Wuhan 430074China

Rainfall forecasts for the summer monsoon season in the Yangtze River basin(YRB) allow decision-makers to plan for possible flooding, which can affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. A trial climate service was developed in 2016, producing a prototype seasonal forecast product for use by stakeholders in the region, based on rainfall forecasts directly from a dynamical model. Here, we describe an improved service based on a simple statistical downscaling approach. Through using dynamical forecast of an East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) index, seasonal mean rainfall for the upper and middle/lower reaches of YRB can be forecast separately by use of the statistical downscaling, with significant skills for lead times of up to at least three months. The skill in different sub-basin regions of YRB varies with the target season. The rainfall forecast skill in the middle/lower reaches of YRB is significant in May–June–July(MJJ), and the forecast skill for rainfall in the upper reaches of YRB is significant in June–July–August(JJA). The mean rainfall for the basin as a whole can be skillfully forecast in both MJJ and JJA. The forecasts issued in 2019 gave good guidance for the enhanced rainfall in the MJJ period and the near-average conditions in JJA. Initial feedback from users in the basin suggests that the improved forecasts better meet their needs and will enable more robust decision-making.

关键词： seasonal rainfall forecasts climate service Yangtze River basin(YRB) East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)

Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 22-30页

作者： Philip E. BETT Adam A. SCAIFE Chaofan LI Chris HEWITT nicola golding Peiqun ZHANG Nick DUNSTONE Doug M. SMITH Hazel E. THORNTON Riyu LU Hong-Li REN Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB UK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter Devon EX4 4QF UK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from E1 Nifio to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong E1 Nifio in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements.

关键词： seasonal forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall ENSO hydroelectricity