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Portal vein cannulation:An uncommon complication of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2011年第46期17卷 5131-5132页

作者： Evangelos Kalaitzakis nicholas stern Richard Sturgess Digestive Disease Unit Department of GastroenterologyAintree University Hospitals

Portal vein cannulation is a rare complication of endo-scopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP).It has been reported that it usually occurs after endo-scopic sphincterotomy,whereas in cases without prior sphincterotomy,the presence of portobiliary fistulas has been shown.Here,we present a case in which cannulation of the portal vein occurred despite careful wire-guided cannulation and the absence of sphinc-terotomy.Although fatal cases of cerebral and pulmo-nary air and/or bile embolism have been reported in patients with combined portal and hepatic vein trauma after ERCP and sphincterotomy,isolated portal vein cannulation,as in the current case,does not usu-ally result in mortality or serious morbidity.However,awareness of this rare complication is important so that no further intervention is performed.

关键词：门静脉并发症插管内镜造影胆管综合门户网站括约肌

Endoscopic papillary large balloon dilatation with sphincterotomy is safe and effective for biliary stone removal independent of timing and size of sphincterotomy

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2017年第48期23卷 8597-8604页

作者： Usman Iqbal Aujla Nimzing Ladep Laura Dwyer Stephen Hood nicholas stern Richard Sturgess Digestive Diseases Unit Aintree University Hospital

AIM To describe the efficacy and safety of endoscopic papillary large balloon dilatation(EPLBD) in the management of bile duct stones in a Western population. METHODS Data was collected from the endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP) and Radiology electronic database along with a review of case notes over a period of six years from 1 st August 2009 to 31 st July 2015 and incorporated into Microsoft excel. Statistical analyses were performed using Med Calc for Windows,version 12.5(Med Calc Software,Ostend,Belgium). Simple statistical applications were applied in order to determine whether significant differences exist in comparison groups. We initially used simple proportions to describe the study populations. Furthermore,we used chi-square test to compare proportions and categorical variables. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney U-test was applied in order to compare continuous variables. All comparisons were deemed to be statistically significant if P values were less than 0.05.RESULTS EPLBD was performed in 229 patients(46 females) with mean age of 68 ± 14.3 years. 115/229(50%) patients had failed duct clearance at previous ERCP referred from elsewhere with standard techniques. Duct clearance at the Index* ERCP(1 st ERCP at our centre) was 72.5%. Final duct clearance rate was 98%. EPLBD after fresh sphincterotomy was performed in 81(35.4%). Median balloon size was 13.5 mm(10-18). In addition to EPLBD,per-oral cholangioscopy(POC) and electrohydraulic lithotripsy(EHL) was performed in 35(15%) patients at index* ERCP. 63(27.5%) required repeat ERCP for stone clearance. 28(44.5%) required POC and EHL and 11(17.4%) had repeat EPLBD for complete duct clearance. Larger stone size(12.4 mm vs 17.4 mm,P < 0.000001),multiple stones(2,range(1-13) vs 3,range(1-12),P < 0.006) and dilated common bile duct(CBD)(12.4 mm vs 18.3 mm,P < 0.001) were significant predictors of failed duct clearance at index ERCP. 47 patients(20%) had ampullary or peri-ampullary diverticula. Procedure related adverse events included 2 cases of

关键词： Endoscopic sphincterotomy endoscopic papillary large balloon dilatation Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography Adverse events Common bile duct stones

The policy-driven peak and reduction of China's carbon emissions

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2020年第2期11卷 65-71页

作者： QI Ye nicholas stern HE Jian-Kun LU Jia-Qi LIU Tian-Le David KING WU Tong Institute for Public Policy The Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHong KongChina School of Public Policy and Management Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment London School of Economics and Political ScienceLondonWC2A 2AEUK Institute for Low-Carbon Economy Research Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies University of Wisconsin MadisonWisconsin53562USA Department of Political Science University of Wisconsin MadisonWisconsin53562USA Division of Public Policy The Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHong KongChina Department of Chemistry University of CambridgeCambridgeCB21TNUK State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology Research Center for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China Natural Capital Project Stanford UniversityCalifornia94305USA

Pursuant to the Paris Agreement,China committed itself to peak its carbon emissions by around 2030 and to increase the non-fossil share ofprimary energy to 20%at the same time.The government has supported the international agreement by setting and strengthening the domesticpolicy targets for an earlier peak and faster reduction,aiming to contain the average global temperature increase to well below 2℃.We developa Kaya Inequality method to assess the time of peak and pace of reduction of China's energy-related CO2emissions based on the national energypolicy targets for 2030.We find that,despite the minor fluctuations,the current plateau essentially represents the peak emissions and should entera phase of steady decline by around 2025,given current trends in energy consumption and decarbonization.Such developments would beconsistent with the strengthened national policy target to achieve 50%of renewable power generation by 2030.However,the basic policy targetsea 20%share of non-fossil energy and 6 Gtce in total energy consumption by 2030ewould be insufficient to peak carbon emissions by around 2030.The synergy and interplay between domestic policy target setting and international climate commitments shed light on the need to elevatenational climate ambitions under the Paris Agreement and beyond.

关键词： China's carbon peak Paris agreement Reduced Kaya approach Climate change

拥抱绿色发展新范式:中国碳中和政策框架研究

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世界经济 2023年第3期46卷 3-30页

作者：朱民 nicholas stern Joseph E.Stiglitz 刘世锦张永生李俊峰 Cameron Hepburn 中国国际经济交流中心中国人民银行英国伦敦政治经济学院格兰瑟姆研究所哥伦比亚大学商学院全国政协经济委员会中国环境与发展合作委员会中国社会科学院生态文明研究所红杉中国牛津大学马丁学院

中国以及全球范围的碳中和共识与行动标志着工业革命后形成的传统发展范式逐渐落幕,一个新的绿色发展范式开始兴起。本文分析工业革命以来旧有发展范式的不可持续性,揭示绿色发展范式在发展目的、发展内容、发展方式以及发展普适性上,... 详细信息

中国以及全球范围的碳中和共识与行动标志着工业革命后形成的传统发展范式逐渐落幕,一个新的绿色发展范式开始兴起。本文分析工业革命以来旧有发展范式的不可持续性,揭示绿色发展范式在发展目的、发展内容、发展方式以及发展普适性上,是对传统发展范式的一次深刻革命。在新的绿色发展范式框架下,本文重新思考经济学的基本问题如价值理论、财富的内涵和测度,以及个人和集体行为等,分析新发展范式转变对于重塑中国重要经济部门和系统的政策含义,并讨论了转型过程中体制机制、金融和技术创新等方面的重要保障,以及如何实现协调和平衡的转型。本文同时提出中国如何引领世界碳中和治理机制建设,并讨论了同世界实现绿色合作共赢的机遇和政策。

关键词：碳中和范式转变政策框架经济发展国际合作

拥抱绿色发展新范式:中国碳中和政策框架研究

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高等学校文科学术文摘 2023年第3期40卷 7-11页

作者：朱民 nicholas stern Joseph E.Stiglitz 刘世锦中国国际经济交流中心理事长办公室北京100050

2020年9月22日,习近平主席在第七十五届联合国大会上宣布,中国力争2030年前实现碳达峰,2060年前实现碳中和。中国的“双碳”承诺,既是中国应对全球气候变化的大国担当,也是中国推动经济绿色转型和全面建设社会主义现代化国家的战略选择... 详细信息

2020年9月22日,习近平主席在第七十五届联合国大会上宣布,中国力争2030年前实现碳达峰,2060年前实现碳中和。中国的“双碳”承诺,既是中国应对全球气候变化的大国担当,也是中国推动经济绿色转型和全面建设社会主义现代化国家的战略选择。中国碳中和目标的宣布,推动形成了历史上前所未有的全球碳中和共识与行动。

关键词：政策框架碳中和联合国大会大国担当中国应对新范式全球气候变化经济绿色转型

Towards carbon neutrality and China's 14th Five-Year Plan: Clean energy transition, sustainable urban development, and investment priorities

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Environmental Science and Ecotechnology 2021年第4期8卷 102-109页

作者： Cameron Hepburn Ye Qi nicholas stern Bob Ward Chunping Xie Dimitri Zenghelis Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment University of OxfordUK Institute of Public Policy Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHong KongChina School of Public Policy and Management Tsinghua UniversityChina Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment London School of Economics and Political Science(LSE)UK Bennett Institute for Public Policy University of CambridgeUK

China's 14th Five-Year Plan,for the period 2021e25,presents a real opportunity for China to link its longterm climate goals with its short-to medium-term social and economic development plans.China's recent commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 has set a clear direction for its economy,but requires ratcheting up ambition on its near-term climate policy.Against this background,this paper discusses major action areas for China's 14th Five-Year Plan after COVID-19,especially focusing on three aspects:the energy transition,a new type of sustainable urban development,and investment priorities.China's role in the world is now of a magnitude that makes its actions in the immediate future critical to how the world goes forward.This decade,2021e2030,is of fundamental importance to human history.If society locks in dirty and high-carbon capital,it raises profound risks of irreversible damage to the world's climate.It is crucial for China to peak its emissions in the 14th Five-Year Plan(by 2025),making the transition earlier and cheaper,enhancing its international competitiveness in growing new markets and setting a strong example for the world.The benefits for China and the world as a whole could be immense.

关键词： Carbon neutrality 14th Five-Year Plan Energy transition New urbanisation Investment

新型冠状病毒、气候变化以及环境问题压力下:如何实现全面的、可持续的、良好自我恢复的全球经济复苏

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英国医学杂志中文版 2022年第1期25卷 20-22页

作者： nicholas stern IG Patel Bob Ward 温颖茜(译) 周红霞(校) Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment London School of Economics and Political Science 广西医科大学外国语学院广西医科大学外国语学院公共卫生学院

Nick stern和Bob Ward认为,我们正处在历史上一个关键的时期,不仅面临着生物多样性和环境退化带来的危机日益增长,还有全球疫情大流行的灾难。但我们依然拥有很多机遇来改变全球经济,开启一个更加美好繁荣的新时代。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫... 详细信息

Nick stern和Bob Ward认为,我们正处在历史上一个关键的时期,不仅面临着生物多样性和环境退化带来的危机日益增长,还有全球疫情大流行的灾难。但我们依然拥有很多机遇来改变全球经济,开启一个更加美好繁荣的新时代。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情大流行让世界面对全球性威胁时的脆弱性暴露无遗。疾病本身以及疾控措施的实施严重影响了人们的生活和生计。

关键词：气候变化生物多样性环境退化自我恢复疫情可持续的脆弱性

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气候变化的代价

国际原子能机构通报 2007年第1期 25-28页

作者： nicholas stern 英国政府经济局

stern的《气候变化的经济影响评论》审视了气候变化的经济影响这不是第一份有关全球变暖的经济影响报告。但是,这份《气候变化的经济影响评论》

关键词：气候变化二氧化碳当量排放贸易低碳发展国际共识低碳技术京都议定书化石燃料森林砍伐碳市

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美国气候政策中的碳社会成本问题

国外理论动态 2022年第4期 149-156页

作者：尼古拉斯·斯特恩约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨克里斯蒂娜·卡尔松夏洛特·泰勒孙静波(译) 英国伦敦政治经济学院英国格兰瑟姆研究所美国哥伦比亚大学美国罗斯福研究所中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院

拜登上台后宣布美国重新加入《巴黎协定》,并提出到2030年将美国的温室气体排放量较2005年减少50%-52%,到2050年实现净零排放。尽管拜登政府的气候政策目标有所进步,但美国负责制定气候政策的跨部门工作组仍使用此前估算的碳社会成本值... 详细信息

拜登上台后宣布美国重新加入《巴黎协定》,并提出到2030年将美国的温室气体排放量较2005年减少50%-52%,到2050年实现净零排放。尽管拜登政府的气候政策目标有所进步,但美国负责制定气候政策的跨部门工作组仍使用此前估算的碳社会成本值作为制定气候政策的基础。这些估值过低,与拜登政府的气候目标并不一致。造成这一现象的主要原因在于用来估算碳社会成本值的综合评估模型存在六个明显的缺陷,包括:对风险和不确定性的考虑不足;假定经济增长率是外生的;贴现率过高;对气候变化对不同人群的影响差异考虑不足;忽视气候变化以外的其他市场失灵问题;综合评估模型估值对模型假设过于敏感等。为此,文章提出了估算碳社会成本的新方法,即“与目标一致”的碳成本。

关键词：美国气候政策碳社会成本综合评估模型 “与目标一致”的碳成本