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Science China Earth Sciences 2006年第11期49卷 1212-1222页

作者： ZHU Jiang1,2. ZHOU Guangqing1, YAN Changxiang1, FU Weiwei1 & YOU Xiaobao1,3 1. International center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10002., China 2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of {2. Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 2.004., China 3. Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology, Beijing 10002., China 1. International center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China 3. Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology Beijing 100029 China

A new 3DVAR-based Ocean Variational Analysis System (OVALS) is developed. OVALS is capable of assimilating in situ sea water temperature and salinity observations and satellite altimetry data. As a component of OVALS, a new variational scheme is proposed to assimilate the sea surface height data. This scheme considers both the vertical correlation of background errors and the nonlinear temperature-salinity relationship which is derived from the generalization of the linear balance constraints to the nonlinear in the 3DVAR. By this scheme, the model temperature and salinity fields are directly adjusted from the altimetry data. Additionally, OVALS can assimilate the temperature and salinity profiles from the ARGO floats which have been implemented in recent years and some temperature and salinity data such as from expendable bathythermograph, moored ocean buoys, etc. A 2.-year assimilation experiment is carried out by using OVALS and the Tropical Pacific circulation model. The results show that the assimilation system may effectively improve the estimations of temperature and salinity by assimilating all kinds of observations. Moreover, the root mean square errors of temperature and salinity in the upper depth less than 4.0 m reach 0.63℃ and 0.34.psu.

关键词： data assimilation, 3DVAR, sea surface height, ARGO floats.

Subseasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2008年第3期27卷 88-103页

作者： Song YANG WEN Min R Wayne HIGGINS NOAA＇s Climate Prediction center Camp Springs Maryland 20746 USA Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

The operational climate forecast system （CFS） of the US national centers for Environmental Prediction provides climate predictions over the world, and CFS products are becoming an important source of information for regional climate predictions in many Asian countries where monsoon climate dominates. Recent studies have shown that, on monthly-to-seasonal time-scales, the CFS is highly skillful in simulating and predicting the variability of the Asian monsoon. The higher-frequency variability of the Asian summer monsoon in the CFS is analyzed, using output from a version with a spectral triangular truncation of 12. waves in horizontal and 6{2.sigma layers in vertical, focusing on synoptic, quasi-biweekly, and intraseasonal time-scales. The onset processes of different regional monsoon components were investigated within Asia. Although the CFS generally overestimates variability of monsoon on these time-scales, it successfully captures many major features of the variance patterns, especially for the synoptic timescale. The CFS also captures the timing of summer monsoon onsets over India and the Indo-China Peninsula. However, it encounters difficulties in simulating the onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The success and failure of the CFS in simulating the onset of monsoon precipitation can also be seen from the associated features of simulated atmospheric circulation processes. Overall, the CFS is capable of simulating the synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon with skills. As for seasonal-tointerannual time-scales shown previously, the model is expected to possess a potential for skillful predictions of the high-frequency variability of the Asian monsoon.

关键词： Asian summer monsoon onset evolution synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability NCEP climate prediction system

A three-dimensional model study on ocean dynamic response to traveling cyclone over the Huanghai Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2005年第1期24卷 60-75页

作者： QINZenghao LIYongping YUANYaochu YURunling ShanghaiTyphoonInstitute ChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationShanghai200030China／／SecondInstituteofOceanographyStateOceanicAdministratianHangzhou310012China ShanghaiTyphoonInstitute ChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationShanghai200030China SecondInstituteofOceanography StateOceanicAdministratianHangzhou310012China／／KeyLaboratoryofOceanDynamicProcessesandSatelliteOceanographyofStateOceanicAdministrationHangzhou310012China

On the basis of numerical simulation of the mean circulation and relevant thermal-salinity fields in June with a three-dimensional o-cean model (ECOM-si), the model outputs are used as first guess of initial fields for numerical integration of the model equations and the numerical results are applied to investigating the dynamical responses of the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea (HECS) in the course of a weak land-to-sea cyclone's passage over the Huanghai Sea on 15-16 June 1999. Predominance of the dynamic impact of cyclone over the thermal one in June in the HECS is justified using observations and model *** cyclone and its surrounding weather system, i.e., subtropical high ridge to its south could influence current and thermal fields in the Bohai Sea, the Huanghai Sea and the northern East China Sea even though the intensity of cyclone was rather weak. The response of oceanic currents to the wind stresses driven by the cyclone and its soumern subtropical high were strongly characterized by the wind drift with its extent of equivalent scale of cyclone in the horizontal and of Ekman layer in the vertical. The sea response at a given site was closely related to the transient local wind speed and *** was sensitive to the local wind direction,which is demonstrated at three points locating at the southern and western Huanghai Sea and the northern East China Sea. So the sea responses at locations differed considerably from one another. Current responded to the wind stress in a simple way:directly to the wind-driven current and subsequent gradient current and slope current, etc., whereas sea temperature responded to the wind stress in two ways: directly to the cyclone-induced cooling and indirectly to water movements both in the horizontal and the vertical by the cyclone' s wind stress. So the sea temperature variation under the influence of cyclone was more complicate than the current. The HECS in response to the cyclone and its ambient

关键词： sea response Huanghai Sea East China Sea Bohai Sea weak cyclone numerical study

中国北方冬季气温的年际变化对北太平洋东部海温异常的响应

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气候与环境研究 2018年第3期23卷 275-286页

作者：刘炜宋文玲内蒙古自治区气候中心呼和浩特010051 中国气象局国家气候中心北京100081

利用地面气温观测资料及NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,分析了中纬度北太平洋东部海温异常变化对中国北方地区冬季气温的可能影响。结果表明,前期夏、秋季中纬度北太平洋东部海温与北方地区冬季气温存在持续稳定的正相关关系,并且这种相关性... 详细信息

利用地面气温观测资料及NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,分析了中纬度北太平洋东部海温异常变化对中国北方地区冬季气温的可能影响。结果表明,前期夏、秋季中纬度北太平洋东部海温与北方地区冬季气温存在持续稳定的正相关关系,并且这种相关性在年代际尺度上较年际尺度更为显著。这种联系与中纬度北太平洋东部关键区海温在对流层中低层激发出的一种类似北美—大西洋—欧亚遥相关型波列有关。当前期关键区海温偏高(低)时,其激发的波列使得乌拉尔山阻塞高压偏弱(强),西伯利亚高压偏弱(强),导致贝加尔湖以南大部地区受正(负)高度距平控制,亚洲地区中高纬以纬(经)向环流为主,有利于北方大部地区气温偏高(低)。研究表明,中纬度北太平洋东部海温异常通过激发出一个从关键海区到我国北方地区的跨越东西半球的遥相关型波列,引发北半球中高纬度大气环流异常,进而影响北方冬季气温。

关键词：北太平洋东部遥相关波列乌拉尔山阻塞高压西伯利亚高压冬季气温

EVALUATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS FROM OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2.13

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2015年第1期4卷 18-26页

作者： GUOMIN CHEN HUI YU QING CAO Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China meteorological administration Shanghai Marine meteorological center Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological Administration Shanghai Marine meteorological center

Tropical cyclones(TCs)forecasts from seven global models in 2.13 were assessed to study the current capability of track and intensity forecast guidance over the western North *** of along-and cross-track error revealed stepped decreases in the values of each quantile at each lead time level by showing the annual track error distribution from 2.10 to 2.13,particularly in the ECMWF-IFS,NCEP-GFS and UKMO-Met UM *** TC propagation direction was much easier to handle for most of the global models;however,the propagation speed seemed to be more closely linked to the inner-core dynamics and thus processes that take place at smaller spatial scales.A new model evaluation tool,‘track error rose’,was used to analyze the models’systematic error in the track forecast using the same concepts as the‘wind rose’.The results showed that as the lead time increased,most of the global models forecast a TC moving speed that was slower than observations and the largest track error often appeared around the rear direction of the observation *** new model evaluation tool,the Taylor diagram,was used to evaluate the intensity predictions from the global models.A Taylor diagram provides a way of plotting standard deviation,centered root mean square,and the correlation coefficient on a two-dimensional graph,indicating how closely a predicted TC intensity matches *** made it easy to distinguish the intensity forecast performance of the seven global models and determine which models were in relatively good agreement with ***,it also provided a statistical measure of the correlation between modeled and observed TC intensity,offering a practical way of assessing and summarizing model capability.

关键词： tropical cyclone global model forecast verification

A STUDY OF THE GLOBAL 2.0 HPA DIVERGENT CIRCULATIONS IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS IN SUMMER

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Acta Meteorologica Sinica 1988年第2期 164-174页

作者：丁一汇赵深铭张键 Academy of meteorological Science State meteorological {2. Beijing satellite Meteorology center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Academia Sinica

Utilizing the wind data at 2.0 hPa in recent 13 years,the global tropical divergent wind fields fromMay through October have been *** has been found that the center of the strongest divergentwind is located in the region from the South China Sca to the *** maximum monthly variation,however,of the divergent wind fields is found in India and the region of the Bay of Bengal.

关键词： over A STUDY OF THE GLOBAL 2.0 HPA DIVERGENT CIRCULATIONS IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS IN SUMMER HPA

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二种正规模初值化的比较试验

气象学报 1989年第4期47卷 496-500页

作者：王诗文北京气象中心

本文用麦申豪尔(Machenhauer 1977)的非线性正规模初值化(简称NMI)和动力正规模初值化(简称DNI)案进行比较试验。试验分别在一层谱模式、多层谱模式以及四维同化系统中进行试验。试验的结果表明:在一层谱模式上NMI比DNI稍好,而在多层谱... 详细信息

本文用麦申豪尔(Machenhauer 1977)的非线性正规模初值化(简称NMI)和动力正规模初值化(简称DNI)案进行比较试验。试验分别在一层谱模式、多层谱模式以及四维同化系统中进行试验。试验的结果表明:在一层谱模式上NMI比DNI稍好,而在多层谱模式上则DNI比NMI稍好。在四维同化系统中对分析的拟合结果进行比较,总的来看DNI稍好于NMI。

关键词：正规模初值化试验谱模

ON THE ESTIMATION OF SURFACE ALBEDO USING satellite DATE

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 1995年第2期5卷 59-76页

作者： Fang Xianjin(Dept. of Environmental Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084.eople’s Republic of China)Zhang Ying(national {2. center, Beijing 100081People’s Republic of China)

The method to determine the surface albedo using satellite date hasbeen developed and discussed. The relatons betwam the planetary albedo andsurfoce albedo in clear skies are derived with the help of the radiative transfermodelling. To improve the accuracy of the denved surfoce albedo, theparameter X0, i.e., the ratio of the reflected to the total extinction radiation isintroduced into this model. The influences of the model paramenters on thesurfoce albedo have been analyzed. It is found that the error in the derivedsurfoce albedo due to the paramaters together is less than that caused by oulyone parameter because of the complementarity of the parameters. Test resultsin 2. stations over China have been given using the Geostationary satelliteGMS. The results are generally agreeable except for the case of snow/ice cover.

关键词： surface albedo satellite date model parameter estimation

Research on Monitoring of Soil Humidity Based on AMSR-E Data

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meteorological and Environmental Research 2011年第10期2卷 5-7,16页

作者： LI Li1,KUANG Zhao-ming1,LUO Yong-ming1,HE Li1,ZENG Xing-ji2.1.national satellite meteorological center,Remote Sensing Application Test Base,Guangxi meteorological and Disaster-Mitigation Research Institute,Nanning 53002.,China 2.Guangxi meteorological Information center,Nanning 53002.,China

[Objective] The aim was to establish AMSR-E soil humidity monitoring model to realize the real-time monitoring of soil humidity.[Method] By dint of evaporation(small type) in Guangxi,daily precipitation,daily average maximum temperature,daily minimum relative humidity,≤ 5 mm precipitation day,as well as AMSR-E soil humidity data,with Stepwise regression method,soil humidity real-time monitoring was studied based on GIS technology,and monitoring result.[Result] The low soil humidity in Guangxi on September 2. in 2.05 mainly distributed in northeast Guangxi and central Guangxi,including Guilin City,Liuzhou City,Laibin City,Hezhou City,Guigang City,Nanning City,Hechi City and Baise City.[Conclusion] The AMSR-E statistical model based on meteorological observation data can be applied in real-time monitoring of soil humidity.

关键词： AMSR-E Evaporation Soil humidity GIS Drought China