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Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第3期51卷 380-385页

作者： ZHOU BoTao1, CUI Xuan2 & ZHAO Ping3 1 Laboratory for climate Studies, national climate center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2 national meteorological center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China national meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in summer is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of ob- served data. The result has shown clearly that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the tropical cyclone frequency in the WNP. If APO is above (below) the normal in summer, more (less) tropical cyclones will tend to appear in the WNP. The present study also addresses the large-scale at- mospheric general circulation changes underlying the linkage between APO and the WNP tropical cy- clone frequency. It follows that a positive phase of summer APO is concurrent with weakened as well as northward and eastward located western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and reduced vertical zonal wind shear in the WNP, providing favorable envi- ronment for the tropical cyclone genesis, and thus more tropical cyclones will come into being, and vice versa.

关键词： Asian-Pacific oscillation western North Pacific tropical cyclone atmospheric circulation

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2 & CUI Xuan 3 1 national climate center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 100029,china 3 national meteorological center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china national climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China national meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Simulation of 1991-2005 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2,3& DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china meteorological administration, Guangzhou 510080, china 2 Guangdong climate center, Guangzhou 510080, china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 4 national climate center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou 510080 China Guangdong climate center Guangzhou 510080 China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China national climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from beijing climate center (BCC), china meteorological administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2005 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3) In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13, respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 32 d, 3 d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

Progress in china’s climate change study in the 20th century

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2004年第S1期 5-13页

作者： ZHAI Panmao1,2, CHAO Qingchen1,2, ZOU Xukai1,2(1. Laboratory for climate Studies, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2. national climate center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china)

Studies on the 20th century climate change in china have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past century, climate in china has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 oC. More reliable results for the latter part of the 20th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest china, North china and Northeast china, and the warming in winter is most significant. Although no obvious increase or decrease trends were detected for mean precipitation over china in the past half century, regional differences are very distinct. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, precipitation increased, while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased. Studies suggest that climate change in china seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO, PDO, and the others, but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions, and land use. The future climate change studies in china seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of china's climate change and its main causes, since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future.

关键词： th century climate change china

Sea-salt aerosol transport patterns over the Northern Hemisphere inferred from two subarctic ice core records

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第4期48卷 576-584页

作者： YAN Yuping1,2, KANG Shichang2,3,5, SUN Junying4,5, Paul A. Mayewski2 & QIN Dahe5 1. national climate center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china 2. climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA 3. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, beijing 100085, china 4. Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 5. Key Laboratory of Ice Core and Cold Regions Environment, Cold and Arid Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, china national climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China climate Change Institute University of Maine Orono ME USA Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Key Laboratory of Ice Core and Cold Regions Environment Cold and Arid Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou China Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences Beijing China

Atmospheric circulation reconstruction based on glaciochemical records requires knowledge of chemical concentration controls, such as source, transport pathway and strength. To gain insight into these processes, the relationships between glaciochemical records from two Northern Hemisphere sites (Mt. Logan in Yukon Territory and 20D in southern Greenland) and instrumental sea level pressure (SLP) series are investigated. Calibrations between Mt. Logan sea-salt sodium (ssNa+) concentration and SLP series show that ssNa+ concentrations are closely correlated with the autumntime (SON) Aleutian Low and the summertime (JJA) North Pacific Subtropical High. Both the deepened Aleutian Low and enhanced North Pacific Sub- tropical High strengthen the transport of sea-salt aerosols from the North Pacific to the Mt. Logan region. Calibrations between 20D ssNa+ concentrations and SLP series indicate that ssNa+ concentrations are closely related to the wintertime (Jan.) Icelandic Low. A deepening of the Icelandic Low strengthens winter storms and frequent cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and pushes more sea-salt laden air masses to the Greenland ice sheet. Therefore, ice core ssNa+ records from the Mt. Logan region can be considered as a proxy for reconstructing the au- tumntime Aleutian Low and summertime North Pacific Subtropical High, and the ssNa+ records from Greenland ice core (20D) may provide a proxy for reconstructing the wintertime Icelandic Low.

关键词： sea-salt aerosol, ice core records, sea level pressure, subarctic regions.

Simulation of freezing and melting of soil on the northeast Tibetan Plateau

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第20期56卷 2145-2155页

作者： XIA Kun 1,2,3,LUO Yong 2,4,5 & LI WeiPing 2 1 Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 100029,china 2national climate center,china meteorological administration,beijing 100081,china 3Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,beijing 100049,china 4 center for Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,beijing 100084,china 5Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Simulation,Ministry of Education,beijing 100084,china Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences national climate center China Meteorological Administration Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University Key Laboratory of Earth

Using observational data spanning the period from February to December 2009 and recorded at the Suli station in Qinghai Province,the land-surface model CLM3.0 was employed to simulate the freezing and melting of *** results indicate that the simulated soil temperature is higher than the observed soil temperature and the ultimate thawing date is earlier than the observed date during the melting *** the freezing period,the simulated soil temperature is lower than the observed soil temperature and the ultimate freezing of the deep soil is earlier than that ***,the simulation of freezing is better than that of melting,and the simulation of a shallow layer is better than that of a deeper *** the original CLM3.0,it is assumed that frozen soil begins to melt when the soil temperature exceeds 0C,which is inconsistent with *** critical freeze-thaw temperature was calculated according to thermodynamics equations and the freeze-thaw condition was *** this work,the melting rate for frozen soil was reduced using the modified scheme,and the simulated soil temperature was lowered. Meanwhile,the refreezing of soil during the melting season was well simulated and more closely matched ***,it was found that the rates of melting and freezing differ,with the former being slower than the latter,but refreezing during the melting season is rather quick.

关键词：土壤温度冻结期青藏高原东北部模拟融化观测数据热力学方程表面模型

Changes in the spatial scale of beijing UHI and urban development

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Science china Earth Sciences 2005年第Z2期48卷 116-127页

作者： YU Shuqiu, BIAN Lingen & LIN Xuechun State Key Laboratory on Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china national climate center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china State Key Laboratory on Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China national climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The seasonal and interannual variations of beijing urban heat island (UHI) are investigated in this paper using the temperature data from 1960 to 2000 at 20 meteorological stations in the beijing region, and then the relationship between the intensity and spatial scale of UHI and beijing urbanization indices is analyzed and discussed. Main conclusions are the followings. First, beijing UHI shows obvious seasonal variations, and it is strongest in winter, next in spring and autumn, and least in summer. The seasonal variation of the UHI mainly occurs in the urban area. The UHI intensity at the center of beijing is more than 0.8℃ in winter, and only 0.5℃ in summer. Second, the intensity of beijing HUI exhibits a clear interannual warming trend with its mean growth rate (MGR) being 0.3088℃/10 a. The MGR of HUI is largest in winter, next in spring and autumn, and least in summer, and the urban temperature increase makes a major contribution to the growth of HUI intensity. Third, since the Reform and Opening, the urbanization indices have grown several ten times or even one hundred times, the intensity of HUI has increased dramatically, and its spatial scale also expanded distinctively along with the expansion of urban architectural complexes. Fourth, the interannual variation of urbanization indices is very similar with that of HUI intensity, and their linear correlation coefficients are significant at a more than 0.001 confidence level.

关键词： beijing region, temperature change, heat island effect, HUI spatial scale, human activities.

An improvement on summer regional climate simulation over East china: Importance of data assimilation of soil moisture

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第9期55卷 867-873页

作者： HU YaMin1,2,3, DING YiHui4 & LIAO Fei2 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, china meteorological administration, Guangzhou 510080, china 2 Guangdong climate center, Guangzhou 510080, china 3 Chinese Academy of meteorological Sciences, beijing 100081, china 4 national climate center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china

The Newtonian relaxation is used to assimilate data from the Second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2) into the initial field for soil moisture in a regional climate model (i.e., BCC_RegCM 1.0, hereinafter called RegCM). The results show that different nudging parameters can improve the simulation of the air temperature and the precipitation to some extent in summertime season over East china. When the nudging intensity is 0.5 and nudging duration is 5 days, the result is desirable. Introducing the data assimilation of soil moisture into RegCM, the amelioration is not only in the spatial distribution pattern but also in the magnitude of the temperature and the precipitation. More specifically, the assimilation experiments have corrected the systematical cold bias of the air temperature and the precipitation on the low side, which is much closer to the observation compared with the control experiment. On the whole, the assimilation experiments shed light on the fact that the simulated bias in the original RegCM may be affected by the description of soil moisture in the land surface process. Therefore, the effect of soil moisture in RegCM should be paid more attention in the future.

关键词： soil moisture Newtonian relaxation data assimilation regional climate simulation

Strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction

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Science china Earth Sciences 2007年第10期50卷 1589-1599页

作者： REN HongLi1,2? & CHOU JiFan1 1 College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, china 2 Laboratory for climate Studies, national climate center, china meteorological administration, beijing 100081, china College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou 730000 China

In order to effectively improve numerical prediction level by using current models and data, the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction (DAP) is deeply studied in the present paper. A new idea to predict the prediction errors of dynamical model on the basis of historical analogue information is put forward so as to transform the dynamical prediction problem into the estimation problem of prediction errors. In terms of such an idea, a new prediction method of final analogue correction of errors (FACE) is developed. Furthermore, the FACE is applied to extra-seasonal prediction experiments on an operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation show that the FACE can to some extent reduce prediction errors, recover prediction variances, and improve prediction skills. Besides, sensitive experiments also show that predictions based on the FACE are evidently influenced by the number of analogues, analogue-selected variables and analogy metric.

关键词： dynamical analogue prediction, prediction strategy, analogue correction of errors, extra-seasonal prediction