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GLOBAL climate CHANGES AND THE TOURISM OF CHINA

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 1996年第2期6卷 97-102页

作者： Ren Guoyu(national climate center, Beijing 100081People’s Republic of China) national climate center Beijing 100081 China

The future global climate changes induced by the increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is receiving much attention from the scientific community as well as the public. Model simulations and palaeoclimatic data studies show an evident change in temperature and precipitation over China will occur under conditions of the global warming. Possible scenarios of the future climates are given here for China on the basis of synthesizing model simulations and palaeoclimatic data. Most parts of China will experience an increase in temperature, but the warming may be more remarkable in winter in h1e northern half of the country. Increase in precipitation will be seen in nearly every parts of the eastern China, and it will be larger in North and Northeast China. Impacts of the climate changes on the national tourism are assessed. Regions suitable for tourisin development in terms of climate comfortable index will shift northward. Some scenic spots and toruism facilities will be damaged due to sea level rise and increased rainfall. Some regions will benefit from the dimate change, but the tourism industry as a whole will be negatively affected.

关键词： IPCC GLOBAL climate CHANGES AND THE TOURISM OF CHINA

A study of the early warning signals of abrupt change in the Pacific decadal oscillation

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Chinese Physics B 2015年第8期24卷 662-673页

作者：吴浩侯威颜鹏程张志森王阔 Hunan climate center national climate center College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Zhejiang climate center

In recent years, the phenomenon of a critical slowing down has demonstrated its major potential in discovering whether a complex dynamic system tends to abruptly change at critical points. This research on the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) index has been made on the basis of the critical slowing down principle in order to analyze its early warning signal of abrupt change. The chaotic characteristics of the PDO index sequence at different times are determined by using the largest Lyapunov exponent(LLE). The relationship between the regional sea surface temperature(SST) background field and the early warning signal of the PDO abrupt change is further studied through calculating the variance of the SST in the PDO region and the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient, thereby providing the experimental foundation for the extensive application of the method of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Our results show that the phenomenon of critical slowing down, such as the increase of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, will continue for six years before the abrupt change of the PDO index. This phenomenon of the critical slowing down can be regarded as one of the early warning signals of an abrupt change. Through calculating the LLE of the PDO index during different times, it is also found that the strongest chaotic characteristics of the system occurred between 1971 and 1975 in the early stages of an abrupt change(1976), and the system was at the stage of a critical slowing down, which proves the reliability of the early warning signal of abrupt change discovered in 1970 from the mechanism. In addition, the variance of the SST,along with the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient in the corresponding PDO region, also demonstrates the corresponding relationship between the change of the background field of the SST and the change of the PDO.

关键词： abrupt climate change critical slowing down early warning signals largest Lyapunov exponent sea surface temperature

Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific

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Science China Earth Sciences 2008年第3期51卷 380-385页

作者： ZHOU BoTao1, CUI Xuan2 & ZHAO Ping3 1 Laboratory for climate Studies, national climate center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China 2 national Meteorological center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China 3 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China 1. Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China 2. national Meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China 3. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

The relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in summer is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of ob- served data. The result has shown clearly that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the tropical cyclone frequency in the WNP. If APO is above (below) the normal in summer, more (less) tropical cyclones will tend to appear in the WNP. The present study also addresses the large-scale at- mospheric general circulation changes underlying the linkage between APO and the WNP tropical cy- clone frequency. It follows that a positive phase of summer APO is concurrent with weakened as well as northward and eastward located western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and reduced vertical zonal wind shear in the WNP, providing favorable envi- ronment for the tropical cyclone genesis, and thus more tropical cyclones will come into being, and vice versa.

关键词： Asian-Pacific oscillation western North Pacific tropical cyclone atmospheric circulation

Simulation of 1991-2005 Meiyu seasons in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using BCC_RegCM 1.0

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2010年第11期55卷 1077-1083页

作者： HU YaMin1,2,3& DING YiHui4 1 Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080, China 2 Guangdong climate center, Guangzhou 510080, China 3 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China 4 national climate center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology China Meteorological Administration Guangzhou 510080 China Guangdong climate center Guangzhou 510080 China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China national climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

By using BCC_RegCM 1.0 (RegCM for short) from Beijing climate center (BCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Meiyu season characters over the Yangtze-Huaihe region during 1991-2005 are simulated. The major conclusions of this study may be summarized as the following: (1) RegCM can reproduce the interannual variation and the spatial distribution of the summertime precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. (2) By use of a generalized Meiyu criterion and in accordance with model-calculated precipitation and temperature, the Meiyu onset and ending date have been determined. Compared with the observation, RegCM can simulate the interannual variation of the Yangtze-Huaihe Meiyu with preferable capability for most of the normal Meiyu years (such as 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004), especially for the rich Meiyu years of 1996, 1998 and 1999. (3) In terms of the average simulation for the recent 15 years, the timings of onset and ending of Meiyu occur on June 1 and July 13, respectively, which are earlier than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 32 d, 3 d shorter than the observation. The index of Meiyu intensity is 2.45, while the climatological one is 3.00. Therefore, RegCM is capable of simulating the climatological Meiyu duration and intensity, while the capability of simulating the onset and ending date of Meiyu still needs to be improved.

关键词：梅雨季节模拟计算长江气候观测发病时间强度指数中国气象局空间分布

Assessment of Global Weather Disasters in 2000

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Natural Disaster Reduction in China 2001年第4期10卷 152-160页

作者： LIU Chuanfeng (national climate center, Beijing 100081, China) national climate center Beijing 100081 China

The global climate in 2000 kept warmer than that in the average year. The strong La Nina weakened abruptly after reaching its second peak value over the central and eastern Pacific region along the equator in January. The event had significant impacts upon the world climate, especially that in the tropical regions. Many areas of the Northern Hemisphere suffered severe cold weather in winter and heat wave in summer. The globe was afflicted with severe high temperature, drought and forest fire, whereas many areas in southern Asia. Western Europe, southern Africa, and northern South America were frequently attacked by Storm rainfall. It is estimated that the global economic loss caused by weather disasters in 2000 was over $ 100 billion with hundreds of millions of people affected.

关键词： global weather disaster severe cold drought flooding

Sea surface temperature east of Australia:A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific?

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第2期56卷 196-201页

作者： ZHOU BoTao 1,2 & CUI Xuan 3 1 national climate center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China 2 Nansen-Zhu International Research center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China 3 national Meteorological center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China national climate center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China Nansen-Zhu International Research center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China national Meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing China

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation *** WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of *** the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind *** conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF *** negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North *** spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.

关键词：热带气旋北太平洋澳大利亚西部海面温度热带大气环流预测频率

Some characteristics of the atmosphere during an adiabatic process

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2006年第6期16卷 644-648页

作者： GAO Li, LI Jianping and REN Hongli (LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China national climate center, Laboratory of climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China) [a]LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China [b]Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China [c]national climate center Laboratory of Climatic Studies China Meterological Administration Beijing China

Some important characteristics of the atmosphere during an adiabatic process are investigated, which include the invariability of atmospheric entropy range and local surface potential temperature, the conservation of the atmospheric mass intervened between any isentropic surface and the ground, and the isentropic surface intersecting with the ground. The analysis shows that the atmospheric reference state (ARS) for investigation on available potential energy (APE) should be defined objectively as the state which could be approached from the existing atmosphere by adiabatic adjustment, and be related to initial atmospheric state before adjustment. For the initial atmosphere state at any time, its corresponding ARS is different from the one at another time. Based on the above-mentioned conclusions, the reference state proposed by Lorenz cannot be obtained physically, so a new conception, the conditional minimum total potential energy, is put forward in order to objectively investigate atmospheric APE.

关键词： available potential energy adiabatic isentropic surface atmospheric reference state conditional minimum total potential energy.

IMPACT OF SUMMER MONSOON'S ANNUAL VARIATION IN EAST ASIA ON DROUGHT-FLOOD DISASTERSAND WATER RESOURCES IN CHINA

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Natural Disaster Reduction in China 1996年第4期 156-162页

作者： Zhang Qing and Zhang Aiqun(national climate center,Beijing 100081)

This paper is based on the precipitation of a period of ten days in 336stations which are divided into seven areas of China from 1951 to 1995. We analysed drought and flood facts in the active period of summer monsoon... 详细信息

关键词： EAST ASIA IMPACT OF SUMMER MONSOON’S ANNUAL VARIATION IN EAST ASIA ON DROUGHT

科尔沁沙地东南缘近3000年来植被演化与人类活动

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地理科学 1999年第1期19卷 42-48页

作者：任国玉国家气候中心

在科尔沁沙地东南部，以蒙古栎为代表的乔木花粉从３１００ａＢ．Ｐ．开始显著下降，蒿属和藜科等草本植物花粉逐渐上升，藜科花粉开始上升时间又迟于蒿属花粉。这说明，原来的固定沙丘有一部分首先转化为半固定沙丘，半固定沙丘后来又... 详细信息

在科尔沁沙地东南部，以蒙古栎为代表的乔木花粉从３１００ａＢ．Ｐ．开始显著下降，蒿属和藜科等草本植物花粉逐渐上升，藜科花粉开始上升时间又迟于蒿属花粉。这说明，原来的固定沙丘有一部分首先转化为半固定沙丘，半固定沙丘后来又转变成半流动和流动沙丘。另一方面，科左后旗和辽北地区人口的显著增加始于３１００ａＢ．Ｐ．前后，此后呈缓慢上升趋势。因此，人类定居和农牧业活动可能是本区沙地疏林减少的基本原因，也是近３０００ａ沙丘演化或沙漠化过程持续增强的主要因子。

关键词：晚全新世科尔沁沙地植被演变人类活动古气候