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Effect of future climate change on the water footprint of major crops in southern Tajikistan

Regional Sustainability 2021年第1期2卷 60-72页

作者： muhammadjon kobuliev Tie Liu Zainalobudin kobuliev Xi Chen Aminjon Gulakhmadov Anming Bao State Key Laborutory of Desert and Oasis Xinjiang Instinite of Fcology and GeographyChinese Academy of Sciences Urmgi830011China University of Chinese Acadeny of Sciences Beijing 100049China Instinite of Water Problems Hydropower and Rcology of the Academy of Sciences of the Repubic of Taikisan Dushanbe734042Tajikistan Research Center for Ecology and Emironment of Central Asia Chinese Acadmy of SciencesUrumqi830011China China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Farth Sciences CAS-HECIslamabad 45320Pakistan

Danghara,a major food production area in southern Tajikistan,is currently suffering from the impact of rapid climate change and intensive human *** the future impact of climate change on crop water requirements(CWRs)for the current growing period and defining the optimal sowing date to reduce future crop water demand are essential for local/regional water and food ***,this study attempted to analyze possible future climate change effects on the water requirements of major crops using the statistical downscaling method in the Danghara District to simulate the future temperature and precipitation for two future periods(2021-2050 and 2051-2080),under three representative concentration pathways(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5)according to the CanESM2 global climate *** water footprint(WFP)of major crops was calculated as a measure of their *** increased projection of precipitation and temperature probably caused an increase in the main crop’s WFP for the current growing period,which was mainly due to the green water(GW)component in the long term and a decrease in the blue water(BW)component during the second future period,except for cotton,where all components were predicted to remain *** three scenarios for the two future potato and winter wheat decreased from 5.7%to 4.8%and 3.4%to 2.2%,*** the WFP of cotton demonstrated a stable increase,according to the optimal sowing date,adecrease in irrigation demand or Bw was *** results of our study might be useful fordeveloping a new strategy related to irrigation systems and could help to find a balance betweenwater and food for environmental water demands and human use.

关键词： Optimal sowing date Representative concentration pathway Crop water requirement Statistical downscaling method Green water Blue water Southern Tajikistan

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