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The impact of policy timing on the spread of COVID-19

Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 942-954页

作者： moshe elitzur Scott Kaplan Zeljko Ivezic David Zilberman Department of Astronomy Univ of CaliforniaBerkeleyCA94720USA Dept of Agricultural&Resource Economics Univ of CaliforniaBerkeleyCA94720USA Dept of Astronomy University of WashingtonSeattleWA98195USA Dept of Economics United States Naval AcademyAnnapolisMD 21402USA

We model COVID-19 data for 89 nations and US states with a recently developed formalism that describes mathematically any pattern of growth with the minimum number of *** results show that the disease has a typical duration of 18 days,with a significant increase in fatality when it lasts longer than about 4 *** for correlations between“flattening of the curve”and preventive public policies,we find strong statistical evidence for the impact of the first implemented policy on decreasing the pandemic growth rate;a delay of one week in implementation nearly triples the size of the infected population,on *** any government action,the initial outburst still slows down after 36 days,possibly thanks to changes in public behavior in response to the pandemic ***-at-home(lockdown)was not the first policy of any sample member,and we could not find statistically meaningful evidence for its added impact,similar to a recent study that employed an entirely different ***,lockdown was mostly imposed only shortly before the exponential rise was arrested by other measures,too late for a meaningful impact.A third of the sample members that did implement lockdown imposed it only after the outburst had already started to slow *** possibility remains that lockdown might have significantly shortened the initial exponential rise had it been employed as first resort rather than last.

关键词： COVID-19 Pandemic Exponential growth Growth hindering

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