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Automated Machine Learning Algorithm Using Recurrent Neural Network to Perform Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Computers, Materials & Continua 2024年第3期78卷 3529-3549页

作者： Ying Su morgan C.Wang Shuai Liu Department of Statistics and Data Science University of Central FloridaOrlandoFL32816-2370USA School of Mathematics and Statistics Beijing Technology and Business UniversityBeijing100048China

Long-term time series forecasting stands as a crucial research domain within the realm of automated machine learning(AutoML).At present,forecasting,whether rooted in machine learning or statistical learning,typically relies on expert input and necessitates substantial manual involvement.This manual effort spans model development,feature engineering,hyper-parameter tuning,and the intricate construction of time series models.The complexity of these tasks renders complete automation unfeasible,as they inherently demand human intervention at multiple junctures.To surmount these challenges,this article proposes leveraging Long Short-Term Memory,which is the variant of Recurrent Neural Networks,harnessing memory cells and gating mechanisms to facilitate long-term time series prediction.However,forecasting accuracy by particular neural network and traditional models can degrade significantly,when addressing long-term time-series tasks.Therefore,our research demonstrates that this innovative approach outperforms the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)method in forecasting long-term univariate time series.ARIMA is a high-quality and competitive model in time series prediction,and yet it requires significant preprocessing efforts.Using multiple accuracy metrics,we have evaluated both ARIMA and proposed method on the simulated time-series data and real data in both short and long term.Furthermore,our findings indicate its superiority over alternative network architectures,including Fully Connected Neural Networks,Convolutional Neural Networks,and Nonpooling Convolutional Neural Networks.Our AutoML approach enables non-professional to attain highly accurate and effective time series forecasting,and can be widely applied to various domains,particularly in business and finance.

关键词： Automated machine learning autoregressive integrated moving average neural networks time series analysis

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The earliest evidence for a microblade adaptation in the remote,high altitude regions of the Tibetan Plateau

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1561-1573页

作者： Yingshuai JIN Xiaoling ZHANG Shejiang WANG Junyi GE Wei HE Wa DA Yunyao TAN Ziyi YANG Christopher morgan Xing GAO Institute of Vertebrate Paleontology and Paleoanthropology Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100044China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Cultural Relics Conservation Institute of the Xizang Autonomous Region Lhasa 850000China Nagqu Culture and Tourism Bureau Nagqu 852000China University of Nevada Reno 89557USA

Microblade assemblages are among the most common prehistoric archaeological materials found on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)and are thought to indicate large scale migration to and settlement of the TP.Few microblade sites,however,have been systematically excavated,especially in the remotest,highest-elevation regions of the TP.The timing of the large-scale arrival,spread,and permanent settlement of people on the TP therefore remains controversial.In this paper,we report on a recently excavated site,Locality 3 of the Nwya Devu Site(ND3),located at 4600 meters above sea level(masl),near the shore of Ngoin Lake,on the interior TP.Our analyses reveal a fairly typical microblade technological orientation and two types of microblade cores:wedge-shaped and semi-conical,which are similar to those found throughout North China.Using Optically Stimulated Luminescence(OSL)dating and AMS^(14)C dating,the age of ND3 ranges from 11 to 10 ka.This date range indicates ND3 is the oldest microblade site yet recorded in the remote,high-elevation regions of the TP and thus provides important information about when and how hunter-gatherers using microblades began exploiting the higher altitudes of the TP.Taken together,studies at ND3 and throughout the TP suggest that a microblade adaptation is associated with the first prolonged human occupation of the plateau and that microblades played a significant role in mediating the risks and facilitating the mobility necessary to permanently inhabit the TP.

关键词： The interior of Tibetan Plateau Nwya Devu locality 3 Microblade Early Holocene High altitude adaption

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Modelling Land Use/Land Cover Change of River Rwizi Catchment, South-Western Uganda Using GIS and Markov Chain Model

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Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2024年第2期16卷 181-206页

作者： Lauben Muhangane morgan Andama Faculty of Agriculture Uganda Martyrs University Nkozi Uganda Faculty of Science Muni University Arua Uganda

Analysis of catchment Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is a vital tool in ensuring sustainable catchment management. The study analyzed land use/land cover changes in the Rwizi catchment, south western Uganda from 1989-2019 and projected the trend by 2040. Landsat images, field observations, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to collect data. Changes in cropland, forestland, built up area, grazing land, wetland and open water bodies were analyzed in ArcGIS version 10.2.2 and ERDAS IMAGINE 14 software and a Markov chain model. All the LULC classes increased in area except grazing land. Forest land and builtup area between 2009-2019 increased by 370.03% and 229.53% respectively. Projections revealed an increase in forest land and builtup area by 2030 and only built up area by 2040. LULCC in the catchment results from population pressure, reduced soil fertility and high value of agricultural products.

关键词： Land Cover River Catchment Geographic Information System Markov Model Sustainable Land Management

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Using intersectional gender analysis to identify challenges in tuberculosis care at four health care facilities in Uganda

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2024年第1期13卷 91-91页

作者： Winters Muttamba Samson Omongot Irene Najingo Roseline Nuwarinda Esther Buregyeya Mariam Otmani del Barrio Rosemary morgan Bruce Kirenga Sarah Ssali Makerere University Lung Institute Makerere University Kampala Uganda Division of Infection and Global Health School of Medicine University of St Andrews St. Andrews UK Infectious Disease Institute Makerere University Kampala Uganda School of Public Health Makerere University Kampala Uganda UNICEF UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) World Health Organization Geneva Switzerland Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore MD USA School of Women and Gender Studies Makerere University Kampala Uganda

Background Tuberculosis(TB)care could be considered as a continuum from symptom recognition,decision to seek care,diagnosis,treatment initiation and treatment completion,with care along the continuum influenced by several factors.Gender dimensions could influence TB care,and indeed,more men than women are diagnosed with TB each year.The study was done to identify social stratifiers that intersect with gender to influence TB care.Methods A cross-sectional qualitative study was done at four health facilities in 3 districts in central Uganda between October 2020 and December 2020.Data was collected from patients seeking a diagnosis or on TB treat-ment through focus group discussions and key informant interviews.Key themes around gender guided by a gender and intersectionality lens were developed and thereafter thematic content analysis was done.Results Women have increased vulnerability to TB due to bio mass exposure through roles like cooking.Women have increased access to health care services as they interface with the health care system frequently given their role as child bearers and child care givers.Men have a duty to provide for their families and this most often is prioritised over healthcare seeking,and together with belief that they are powerful beings leads to poor healthcare seeking hab-its and delays in healthcare seeking.Decisions on when and where to seek care were not straightforward for women,who most often rely on their husbands/partners to make decisions.Conclusions Men and women experience challenges to TB care,and that these challenges are deeply rooted in roles assigned to them and further compounded by masculinity.These challenges need to be addressed through intersec-tional gender responsive interventions if TB control is to be improved.

关键词： Tuberculosis Gender Intersectionality Masculinity

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青藏高原腹地发现最早细石叶技术遗址

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中国科学：地球科学 2024年第5期54卷 1588-1601页

作者：靳英帅张晓凌王社江葛俊逸何伟达娃谭韵瑶杨紫衣 Christopher morgan 高星中国科学院脊椎动物演化与人类起源重点实验室中国科学院古脊椎动物与古人类研究所北京100044 中国科学院大学北京100049 西藏自治区文物保护研究所拉萨850000 那曲市文化和旅游局那曲852000 University of Nevada Reno 87557USA

细石叶技术产品是青藏高原发现最丰富的史前人类文化遗物,代表了早期人类在高原的大规模迁徙.然而,经过系统发掘、具有可靠年代数据的细石叶技术遗址在青藏高原发现较少,高原腹地更为缺乏,这对理解细石叶技术人群在高原大规模迁徙扩散... 详细信息

细石叶技术产品是青藏高原发现最丰富的史前人类文化遗物,代表了早期人类在高原的大规模迁徙.然而,经过系统发掘、具有可靠年代数据的细石叶技术遗址在青藏高原发现较少,高原腹地更为缺乏,这对理解细石叶技术人群在高原大规模迁徙扩散的时间和过程带来了诸多障碍.本文研究报道了青藏高原腹地海拔4600m处新发现的细石叶技术遗址——尼阿底遗址第3地点.技术-类型学分析结果显示,尼阿底遗址第3地点细石叶的生产主要包括楔形石核和半锥形石核两种技术,与旧石器时代晚期中国华北地区的细石叶技术特征接近.光释光测年(OSL)和碳十四测年(^(14)C)的结果表明,尼阿底遗址第3地点的年代为11000~10000a BP.尼阿底遗址第3地点作为目前青藏高原腹地发现的最早的细石叶技术遗址,为了解拥有细石叶技术的狩猎采集者到达高原腹地的时间及其可能的扩散路线提供了重要信息.另外,通过对整个高原细石叶技术发展的分析,结合分子生物学的成果对比显示,细石叶技术人群迁移进入高原可能与人类对高原的长期占领以及现代藏族人的形成有密切联系.

关键词：青藏高原腹地尼阿底遗址第3地点细石叶技术早全新世高海拔适应

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Oral anti-coagulants use in Chinese hospitalized patients with atrial fibrillation

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Chinese Medical Journal 2024年第2期137卷 172-180页

作者： Jing Lin Deyong Long Chenxi Jiang Caihua Sang Ribo Tang Songnan Li Wei Wang Xueyuan Guo Man Ning Zhaoqing Sun Na Yang Yongchen Hao Jun Liu Jing Liu Xin Du Louise morgan Gregg C.Fonarow Sidney C.Smith Jr Gregory Y.H.Lip Dong Zhao Jianzeng Dong Changsheng Ma On behalf of CCC-AF investigators Department of Cardiology Beijing Anzhen HospitalCapital Medical UniversityBeijing 100029China National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases Beijing 100029 China Department of Epidemiology Beijing Anzhen HospitalCapital Medical UniversityBeijing Institute of HeartLung and Blood Vessel DiseasesBeijing 100029China International Quality Improvement Department American Heart AssociationDallasTX 07076USA Division of Cardiology Geffen School of Medicine at University of CaliforniaLos Angeles CA 90024USA Division of Cardiology University of North CarolinaChapel HillNC 27599USA Department of Cardiology Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular ScienceUniversity of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart&Chest HospitalLiverpool L143PEUK Department of Clinical Medicine Aalborg UniversityAalborg 9000Denmark 不详

Background:Oral anti-coagulants(OAC)are the intervention for the prevention of stroke,which consistently improve clinical outcomes and survival among patients with atrial fibrillation(AF).The main purpose of this study is to identify problems in OAC utilization among hospitalized patients with AF in China.Methods:Using data from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Atrial Fibrillation(CCC-AF)registry,guideline-recommended OAC use in eligible patients was assessed.Results:A total of 52,530 patients with non-valvular AF were enrolled from February 2015 to December 2019,of whom 38,203 were at a high risk of stroke,9717 were at a moderate risk,and 4610 were at a low risk.On admission,only 20.0%(6075/30,420)of patients with a diagnosed AF and a high risk of stroke were taking OAC.The use of pre-hospital OAC on admission was associated with a lower risk of new-onset ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack among the diagnosed AF population(adjusted odds ratio:0.54,95%confidence interval:0.43-0.68;P70%of AF patients were at a high risk of stroke.Although poor performance on guideline-recommended OAC use was found in this study,over time the CCC-AF project has made progress in stroke prevention in the Chinese AF population.Registration:ClinicalTrials.gov,NCT02309398.

关键词： Atrial fibrillation Oral anti-coagulants OAC Stroke prevention Contraindication

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Impact on Soil Organic C and Total Soil N from Cool- and Warm-Season Legumes Used in a Green Manure-Forage Cropping System

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Agricultural Sciences 2024年第3期15卷 333-357页

作者： Clark B. Neely Francis M. Rouquette Jr. Cristine L.S. morgan Frank M. Hons William L. Rooney Gerald R. Smith Department of Soil and Crop Science Washington State University Pullman WA USA Texas A&M AgriLife Research Overton TX USA Chief Scientific Officer Soil Health Institute Morrisville NC USA Department of Soil and Crop Science Texas A&M University College Station TX USA

Annual forage legumes are important components of livestock production systems in East Texas and the southeastern US. Forage legumes contribute nitrogen (N) to cropping systems through biological N fixation, and their seasonal biomass production can be managed to complement forage grasses. Our research objectives were to evaluate both warm- and cool-season annual forage legumes as green manure for biomass, N content, ability to enhance soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil N, and impact on post season forage grass crops. Nine warm-season forage legumes (WSL) were spring planted and incorporated as green manure in the fall. Forage rye (Secale cereale L.) was planted following the incorporation of WSL treatments. Eight cool-season forage legumes (CSL) were fall planted in previously fallow plots and incorporated as green manure in late spring. Sorghum-sudangrass (Sorghum bicolor x Sorghum bicolor var. sudanense) was planted over all treatments in early summer after forage rye harvest and incorporation of CSL treatments. Sorghum-sudangrass was harvested in June, August and September, and treatments were evaluated for dry matter and N concentration. Soil cores were taken from each plot, split into depths of 0 to 15, 15 to 30 and 30 to 60 cm, and soil C and N were measured using combustion analysis. Nylon mesh bags containing plant samples were buried at 15 cm and used to evaluate decomposition rate of above ground legume biomass, including change in C and N concentrations. Mungbean (Vigna radiata L. [Wilczek]) had the highest shoot biomass yield (6.24 t DM ha-1) and contributed the most total N (167 kg∙ha-1) and total C (3043 kg∙ha-1) of the WSL tested. Decomposition rate of WSL biomass was rapid in the first 10 weeks and very slow afterward. Winter pea (Pisum sativum L. spp. sativum), arrow leaf clover (Trifolium vesiculosum Savi.), and crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum L.) were the most productive CSL in this trial. Austrian winter pea produced 8.41 t DM ha-1 with a total

关键词： Annual Legumes Soil N Soil Organic C Green Manure Deer Browse Forage Cropping Systems

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Legume Green Manure and Intercropping for High Biomass Sorghum Production

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Agricultural Sciences 2024年第6期15卷 605-621页

作者： Clark B. Neely Francis M. Rouquette Jr. Cristine L. S. morgan Frank M. Hons William L. Rooney Gerald R. Smith Department of Soil and Crop Science Washington State University Pullman WA USA Texas A&M AgriLife Research Overton TX USA Soil Health Institute Morrisville NC USA Department of Soil and Crop Science Texas A&M University College Station TX USA

Before the advent of cheap, synthetic fertilizers, legumes were commonly used as green manure crops for their ability to fix atmospheric nitrogen (N). A three-year study at Overton, TX examined legume integration into high-biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) production systems on a Lilbert loamy fine sand recently cultivated after a fertilized bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.] pasture. In this split-split plot design, ‘Dixie’ crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum L.) and ‘Iron and Clay’ cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) were integrated into a high-biomass sorghum production system to evaluate impacts on N concentration, C concentration, and yield of high-biomass sorghum and their impacts on soil total N and soil organic carbon (SOC). Main plots were split into crimson clover green manure (CLGM) and winter fallow (FALL) followed by three sub-plots split into warm-season crop rotations: cowpea green manure (CPGM), cowpea-sorghum intercrop (CPSR), and sorghum monocrop (SORG). Three N fertilizer treatments (0, 45, 90 kg N∙ha−1) were randomized and applied as sub-sub plots. The CLGM increased (P sorghum biomass yield (16.5 t DM∙ha−1) 28% in year three but had no effect in the first two years. The CPSR treatment reduced sorghum yield up to 62% compared to SORG;whereas CPGM increased sorghum yield 56% and 18% the two years following cowpea incorporation. Rate of N fertilizer had no effect on sorghum biomass yield. Decrease in SOC and soil N over time indicated mineralization of organic N and may explain why no N fertilizer response was observed in sorghum biomass yield. Cowpea showed strong potential as a green manure crop but proved to be too competitive for successful intercropping in high-biomass sorghum production systems.

关键词： High-Biomass Sorghum Legumes Green Manure Intercrop Cowpea Crimson Clover Soil Organic Carbon Soil Nitrogen

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Association between high deductible health plan coverage and age at pediatric umbilical hernia repair

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World Journal of Pediatric Surgery 2023年第2期6卷 70-76页

作者： morgan E Doty Lindsay A Gil Jennifer N Cooper The Ohio State University College of Medicine ColumbusOhioUSA Department of Surgery Nationwide Children's HospitalThe Ohio State UniversityColumbusOhioUSA Department of Pediatrics Nationwide Children's HospitalThe Ohio State UniversityColumbusOhioUSA

Background High deductible health plans(HDHPs)are associated with the avoidance of both necessary and unnecessary healthcare.Umbilical hernia repair(UHR)is a procedure that is frequently unnecessarily performed in young children,contrary to best practice guidelines.We hypothesized that children with HDHPs,as compared with other types of commercial health plans,are less likely to undergo UHR before 4 years of age but are also more likely to have UHR delayed beyond 5 years of age.Methods Children aged 0-18 years old residing in metropolitan statistical areas(MSAs)who underwent UHR in 2012-2019 were identified in the IBM Marketscan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database.A quasi-experimental study design using MSA/year-level HDHP prevalence among children as an instrumental variable was employed to account for selection bias in HDHP enrollment.Two-stage least squares regression modeling was used to evaluate the association between HDHP coverage and age at UHR.Results A total of 8601 children were included(median age 5 years,IQR 3-7).Univariable analysis revealed no differences between the HDHP and non-HDHP groups in the likelihood of UHR being performed before 4 years of age(27.7%vs 28.7%,p=0.37)or after 5 years of age(39.8%vs 38.9%,p=0.52).Geographical region,metropolitan area size,and year were associated with HDHP enrollment.Instrumental variable analysis demonstrated no association between HDHP coverage and undergoing UHR at5 years of age(p=0.87).Conclusions HDHP coverage is not associated with age at pediatric UHR.Future studies should investigate other means by which UHRs in young children can be avoided.

关键词： pediatric hernia likely

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Interannual dynamics of stemwood nonstructural carbohydrates in temperate forest trees surrounding drought

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Journal of Forestry Research 2023年第1期34卷 77-86页

作者： Meghan J.Blumstein morgan E.Furze Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology Harvard University26 Oxford StCambridgeMA 02138USA Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology77 Massachusetts AveRoom 1-290CambridgeMA 02139USA Department of Botany and Plant Pathology Department of Forestry and Natural ResourcesPurdue University915 W State StreetWest LafayetteIN 47907USA

Interactions between water and carbon dynamics underlie drought-related tree mortality.While whole-tree water relations have been shown to play a key role in the response to and recovery from drought,the role of nonstructural carbohydrates(NSC) and how their storage and allocation changes surrounding drought events deserves further attention and is critical for understanding tree survival.Here,we quantified in situ NSC responses of temperate forest trees to the 2016 drought in the northeastern United States.Sugar and starch concentrations were measured in the stemwood of five tree species from 2014 to 2019,which allowed us to monitor NSCs in relation to climatic conditions before,during,and after the natural drought.We found that immediately following the drought,measured stemwood NSC concentrations decreased.However,NSC concentrations rebounded quickly within three years.Notably,trees allocated proportionally more to starch than to sugars following the 2016 drought.In winter 2017,starch comprised 45% of total stemwood stores,whereas starch made up only 1-2% in other years.Further,we modeled and assessed the climatic drivers of total NSC concentrations in the stem.Variation in total NSC concentrations was significantly predicted by the previous year’s temperature,precipitation,and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI),with stemwood concentrations decreasing following hotter,drier periods and increasing following cooler,wetter periods.Overall,our work provides insight into the climatic drivers of NSC storage and highlights the important role that a tree’s carbon economy may play in its response and recovery to environmental stress.

关键词： Drought Nonstructural carbohydrates Starch metabolism Forest trees

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