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Modeling vaccination strategies with limited early COVID-19 vaccine access in low-and middle-income countries:A case study of Thailand

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第4期8卷 1177-1189页

作者： Suparinthon Anupong Tanakorn Chantanasaro Chaiwat Wilasang Natcha CJitsuk Chayanin Sararat Kan Sornbundit Busara Pattanasiri Dhammika Leshan Wannigama mohan amarasiri Sudarat Chadsuthi Charin Modchang Biophysics Group Department of PhysicsFaculty of ScienceMahidol UniversityBangkok10400Thailand Center for Disease Modeling Faculty of ScienceMahidol UniversityBangkok10400Thailand Ratchaburi Learning Park King Mongkut’s University of Technology ThonburiRatchaburiThailand Department of Physics Faculty of Liberal Arts and ScienceKasetsart University Kamphaeng Saen CampusNakhon Pathom73140Thailand Department of Infectious Diseases and Infection Control Yamagata Prefectural Central HospitalYamagataJapan Department of Microbiology Faculty of MedicineChulalongkorn UniversityKing Chulalongkorn Memorial HospitalThai Red Cross SocietyBangkokThailand Center of Excellence in Antimicrobial Resistance and Stewardship Faculty of MedicineChulalongkorn UniversityBangkokThailand School of Medicine Faculty of Health and Medical SciencesThe University of Western AustraliaNedlandsWestern AustraliaAustralia Biofilms and Antimicrobial Resistance Consortium of ODA Receiving Countries The University of SheffieldSheffieldUnited Kingdom Pathogen Hunter’s Research Collaborative Team Department of Infectious Diseases and Infection ControlYamagata Prefectural Central HospitalYamagataJapan Laboratory of Environmental Hygiene Department of Health ScienceSchool of Allied Health Sciences/Graduate School of Medical SciencesKitasato UniversityKitasatoSagamihara-MinamiKanagawa252-0373Japan Department of Physics Faculty of ScienceNaresuan UniversityPhitsanulok65000Thailand Centre of Excellence in Mathematics Ministry of Higher EducationScienceResearch and InnovationBangkok10400Thailand Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics Ministry of Higher EducationScienceResearch and Innovation328 Si Ayutthaya RoadBangkok10400Thailand

Low-and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the *** this study,we utilized an agestructured modeling approach to examine the implications of various vaccination strategies,vaccine prioritization,and vaccine rollout speeds in Thailand,an upper-middleincome country experiencing vaccine shortages during the early stages of the *** model directly compares the effectiveness of several vaccination strategies,including the heterologous vaccination where CoronaVac(CV)vaccine was administered as the first dose,followed by ChAdOx1 nCoV-19(AZ)vaccine as the second dose,under varying disease transmission *** found that the traditional AZ homologous vaccination was more effective than the CV homologous vaccination,regardless of disease transmission ***,combining CV and AZ vaccines via either parallel homologous or heterologous vaccinations was more effective than relying solely on AZ homologous ***,prioritizing vaccination for the elderly aged 60 years and above was the most effective way to reduce mortality when community transmission is *** the other hand,prioritizing workers aged 20e59 was most effective in lowering COVID-19 cases,irrespective of the transmission ***,despite the vaccine prioritization strategy,rapid vaccine rollout speeds were crucial in reducing COVID-19 infections and *** findings suggested that in low-and middle-income countries where early access to high-efficacy vaccines might be limited,obtaining any accessible vaccines as early as possible and using them in parallel with other higherefficacy vaccines might be a better strategy than waiting for and relying solely on higher-efficacy vaccines.

关键词： COVID-19 Low-and middle-income countries Vaccine inequality Thailand

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