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Tail risks and infectious disease: Influenza mortality in the U.S., 1900-2018

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 1135-1143页

作者： michele Campolieti Department of Management University of Toronto Scarborough1095 Military TrailTorontoOntarioM1C 1A4Canada

I use extreme values theory and data on influenza mortality from the *** 1900 to 2018 to estimate the tail risks of mortality.I find that the distribution for influenza mortality rates is heavy-tailed,which suggests that the tails of the mortality distribution are more informative than the events of high frequency(i.e.,years of low mortality).I also discuss the implications of my estimates for risk management and pandemic planning.

关键词： Influenza mortality rates Extremes value theory Generalized Pareto distribution Heavy-tails Tail risks

ABCDE—agile block chain DApp engineering

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Blockchain(Research and Applications) 2020年第1期1卷 18-35页

作者： Lodovica Marchesi michele Marchesi Roberto Tonelli DMI University of CagliariCagliari09124Italy

Blockchain software development is becoming more and more important for any modern software developer and IT ***,blockchain software production still lacks a disciplined,organized and mature development process,as demonstrated by the many and(in)famous failures and frauds occurred in recent *** this paper we present ABCDE,a complete method addressing blockchain software *** method considers the software integration among the blockchain components—smart contracts,libraries,data structures—and the out-of-chain components,such as web or mobile applications,which all together constitute a complete DApp *** advocate for ABCDE the use of agile practices,because these are suited to develop systems whose requirements are not completely understood since the beginning,or tend to change,as it is the case of most blockchain-based *** is based on Scrum,and is therefore iterative and *** Scrum,we kept the requirement gathering with user stories,the iterative-incremental approach,the key roles,and the *** main difference with Scrum is the separation of development activities in two flows—one for smart contracts and the other for out-of-chain software interacting with the blockchain—each performed iteratively,with integration activities every 2–3 *** makes explicit the activities that must be performed to design,develop,test and integrate smart contracts and out-of-chain software,and documents the smart contracts using formal diagrams to help development,security assessment,and maintenance.A diagram derived from UML class diagram helps to effectively model the data structure of smart contracts,whereas the exchange of messages between the entities of the system is modeled using a modified UML sequence *** proposed method has also specific activities for security assessment and gas optimization,through systematic use of patterns and *** focuses on Ethereum blockchain and its

关键词： Blockchain Smart contracts Blockchain-oriented software engineering UML DApp design

Physical and chemical processes promoting dominance of the toxic cyanobacterium Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2011年第4期29卷 883-891页

作者： michele A. BURFORD Timothy W. DAVIS Australian Rivers Institute Griffith University Nathan Qld. 4111 Australia

The freshwater cyanobacterium, Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii （Woloszyflska） Seenayya and Subba Raju is a common species in lakes and reservoirs globally. In some areas of the world it can produce cytoand hepatotoxins （cylindrospermopsins, saxitoxins）, making blooms of this species a serious health concern for humans. In the last 10 15 years, there has been a considerable body of research conducted on the ecology, physiology and toxin production of this species and this paper reviews these studies with a focus on the cylindrospermopsin （CYN）-producing strains. C. raciborskii has low light requirements, close to neutral buoyancy, and a wide temperature tolerance, giving it the capacity to grow in many lentic waterbodies. It also has a flexible strategy with respect to nitrogen （N） utilisation; being able to switch between utilising fixed and atmospheric N as sources of N fluctuate. Additionally this species has a high phosphate （DIP） affinity and storage capacity. Like many cyanobacteria, it also has the capacity to use dissolved organic phosphorus （DOP）. Changes in nutrient concentrations, light levels and temperature have also been found to affect production of the toxin CYN by this species. However, optimal toxin production does not necessarily occur when growth rates are optimal. Additionally, different strains of C. raciborskii vary in their cell quota of CYN, making it difficult to predict toxin concentrations, based on C. raciborskii cell densities. In summary, the ecological flexibility of this organism means that controlling blooms of C. raciborskii is a difficult undertaking. However, improved understanding of factors promoting the species and toxin production by genetically capable strains will lead to improved predictive models of blooms.

关键词： cyanobacteria freshwater algal toxins nutrients light temperature

Displacement Trends of Slow-moving Landslides: Classification and Forecasting

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Journal of Mountain Science 2014年第3期11卷 592-606页

作者： CASCINI Leonardo CALVELLO michele GRIMALDI Giuseppe Maria Department of Civil Engineering University of Salerno

A framework is proposed to characterize and forecast the displacement trends of slow-moving landslides, defined as the reactivation stage of phenomena in rocks or fine-grained soils, with movements localized along one or several existing shear surfaces. The framework is developed based on a thorough analysis of the scientific literature and with reference to significant reported case studies for which a consistent dataset of continuous displacement measurements is available. Three distinct trends of movement are defined to characterize the kinematic behavior of the active stages of slow-moving landslides in a velocity-time plot: a linear trend-type I, which is appropriate for stationary phenomena; a convex shaped trend-type II, which is associated with rapid increases in pore water pressure due to rainfall, followed by a slow decrease in the groundwater level with time; and a concave shaped trend-type III, which denotes a non-stationary process related to the presence of new boundary conditions such as those associated with the development of a newly formed local slip surface that connects with the main existing slip surface. Within the proposed framework, a model is developed to forecast future displacements for active stages of trend-type II based on displacement measurements at the beginning of the stage. The proposed model is validated by application to two case studies.

关键词： Slow-moving landslides Displacements forecast Trends of movement

Regular Global Attractors of Type Ⅲ Thermoelastic Extensible Beams

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Chinese Annals of Mathematics,Series B 2010年第5期31卷 619-630页

作者： michele COTI ZELATI Vittorino PATA Ramon QUINTANILLA Mathematics Department Indiana UniversityRawles Hall Dipartimento di Matematica "F. Brioschi" Politecnico di Milano Matemtica Aplicada 2 ETSEIAT-UPC Terrassa

For β∈ R,the authors consider the evolution system in the unknown variables u and ααttu+αxxxxu+αxxtα-(β+αxu L22)αxxu=f,αttα-αxxα-αxxtα-αxxtu=0 describing the dynamics of type III thermoelastic extensible beams,where the dissipation is entirely contributed by the second equation ruling the evolution of the thermal displacement α.Under natural boundary conditions,the existence of the global attractor of optimal regularity for the related dynamical system acting on the phase space of weak energy solutions is established.

关键词： Type III thermoelastic extensible beam Lyapunov functional Global attractor

Characteristics of lightning‐induced voltages based on experimental data

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High Voltage 2021年第3期6卷 555-561页

作者： michele N.N.Santos Alexandre Piantini Technological and Exact Sciences Department Federal University of AmapáMacapá‐APBrazil Institute of Energy and Environment University of São PauloSão Paulo‐SPBrazil

This paper presents an analysis of 64 lightning‐induced voltage waveforms recorded in an experimental system implemented in the campus of the University of São Paulo,*** voltages were measured on a 10 m high,2.7 km long un‐energized overhead line consisting of two conductors installed on 6 m *** of the conductors had surge arresters,while the other one was left *** speaking,all the recorded voltages on the unprotected conductor were bipolar,but in many cases only one semi‐cycle could be considered important for practical *** criteria are discussed for the determination of the waveshape parameters,which may differ signifi-cantly from those of the standard lightning impulse voltage(1.2/50μs).Based on the proposed criterion for classifying the induced voltages,unipolar waveforms accounted for 67%of the total and,except for one case,all of them had positive *** median values of the front time and time‐to‐half‐value were,respectively,5.2μs and 15.8μ*** waveforms were 33%of the total and in approximately 62%of the cases the first semi‐cycle was of positive *** 91%of the cases the voltage peak occurred either in the first or the second semi‐cycle.

关键词： lightning bipolar protected

Clinical differences among racially diverse children with celiac disease

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World Journal of Pediatrics 2022年第10期18卷 710-714页

作者： Kaley A.Desher michele J.Alkalay Department of Pediatric Gastroenterology University of Texas Southwestern Medical CenterDallasTXUSA Preferred postal address is 6605 Vickery Creek Rd CummingGA30040USA

Celiac disease(CD)is an immune-mediated disorder of the small intestine precipitated by the ingestion of gluten in genetically predisposed *** CD was formally considered a chronic enteropathy that mainly affects child... 详细信息

关键词： intestine Clinical formally

Dynamics of supercooled confined water measured by deep inelastic neutron scattering

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Frontiers of physics 2018年第1期13卷 9-14页

作者： Vincenzo De michele Giovanni Romanelli Antonio Cupane Dipartimento di Fisica e Chimica Universita di Palermo Viale delle Scienze Ed. 18 90128 Palermo Italy ISIS Facility Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Chilton Didcot Oxfordshire OX11 OQX UK

In this paper, we present the results of deep inelastic neutron scattering （DINS） measurements on supercooled water confined within the pores （average pore diameter - 20A） of a disordered hydrophilic silica matrix obtained through hydrolysis and polycondensation of the alkoxide precursor Tetra-Methyl- Ortho-Silicate via the sol-gel method. Experiments were performed at two temperatures （250 K and 210 K, i.e., before and after the putative liquid-liquid transition of supercooled confined water） on a ＂wet＂ sample with hydration h -40% w/w, which is high enough to have water-filled pores but low enough to avoid water crystallization. A virtually ＂dry＂ sample at h - 7% was also investigated to measure the contribution of the silica matrix to the neutron scattering signal. As ：is well known, DINS measurements allow the determination of the mean kinetic energy and the momentum distribution of the hydrogen atoms in the system and therefore, allow researchers to probe the local structure of supercooled confined water. The main result obtained is that at 210 K the hydrogen mean kinetic energy is equal or even slightly higher than at 250 K. This is at odds with the predictions of a semi-empirical harmonic model recently proposed to describe the temperature dependence of the kinetic energy of hydrogen in water. This is a new and very interesting result, which suggests that at 210 K, the water hydrogens experience a stiffer intermolecular potential than at 250 K. This is in agreement with the liquid-liquid transition hypothesis.

关键词： confined water liquid-liquid transition hydrogen mean kinetic energy silica xerogel

Sensor Deployment and Relocation:A Unified Scheme

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Journal of Computer Science & Technology 2008年第3期23卷 400-412页

作者： michele Garetto Marco Gribaudo Carla-Fabiana Chiasserini Emilio Leonardi Dipartimento di Informatica Università di TorinoTorinoItaly Dipartimento di Elettronica Politecnico di TorinoTorinoItaly

Sensor networks are envisioned to revolutionize our daily life by ubiquitously monitoring our environment and/or adjusting it to suit our needs. Recent progress in robotics and low-power embedded systems has made it possible to add mobility to small, light, low-cost sensors to be used in teams or swarms. Augmenting static sensor networks with mobile nodes addresses many design challenges that exist in traditional static sensor networks. This paper addresses the problem of topology control in mobile wireless networks. Limitations in communication, computation and energy capabilities push towards the adoption of distributed, energy-efficient solutions to perform self-deployment and relocation of the nodes. We develop a unified, distributed algorithm that has the following features. During deployment, our algorithm yields a regular tessellation of the geographical area with a given node density, called monitoring configuration. Upon the occurrence of a physical phenomenon, network nodes relocate themselves so as to properly sample and control the event, while maintaining the network connectivity. Then, as soon as the event ends, all nodes return to the monitoring configuration. To achieve these goals, we use a virtual force-based strategy which proves to be very effective even when compared to an optimal centralized solution. We assess the performance of our approach in the presence of events with different shapes, and we investigate the transient behavior of our algorithm. This allows us to evaluate the effectiveness and the response time of the proposed solution under various environmental conditions.

关键词： distributed algorithm mobile network sensor relocation wireless sensor network