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Vaccine breakthrough and rebound infections modeling:Analysis for the United States and the ten *** regions

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第3期8卷 717-741页

作者： olusegun michael Otunuga Alexandra Yu Department of Mathematics Augusta University112015th StrGE 2018AugustaGA30912USA

A vaccine breakthrough infection and a rebound infection cases of COVID-19 are studied and analyzed for the ten *** of Health and Human Services(HHS)regions and the United States as a nation in this *** innovative multi-strain susceptible-vacci-nated-exposed-asymptomatic-symptomatic-recovered(SVEAIR)epidemic model is devel-oped for this purpose for a population assumed to be susceptible to n-different variants of the disease,and those who are vaccinated and recovered from a specific strain k(kn)of the disease are immune to present strain and its predecessors j=1,2,…,k,but can still be infected by newer emerging strains j=k+1,k+2,…,*** model is used to estimate epidemiological parameters,namely,the latent and infectious periods,the transmission rates,vaccination rates,recovery rates for each of the Delta B.1.617.2,Omicron B.1.1.529,and lineages BA.2,BA.2.12.1,BA.4,BA.5,BA.1.1,BA.4.6,and BA.5.2.6 for the United States and for each of the ten HHS *** transmission rate is estimated for both the asymptomatic and symptomatic *** effect of vaccines on each strain is *** that guarantees existence of an endemic with certain number of strains is derived and used to describe the endemic state of the population.

关键词： Multi-strain Delta Omicron Lineages Vaccine breakthrough Rebound infection

Qualitative analysis of a stochastic SEITR epidemic model with multiple stages of infection and treatment

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 61-90页

作者： olusegun michael Otunuga Mobolaji O.Ogunsolu Department of Mathematics Marshall UniversityOne John Marshall DriveHuntingtonWVUSA Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of South Florida4202E Fowler AveTampaFlUSA

We present a mathematical analysis of the transmission of certain diseases using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-treated-recovered(SEITR)model with multiple stages of infection and treatment and explore the effects of treatments and external fluctuations in the transmission,treatment and recovery *** assume external fluctuations are caused by variability in the number of contacts between infected and susceptible *** is shown that the expected number of secondary infections produced(in the absence of noise)reduces as treatment is introduced into the *** defining RT,n and R T,n as the basic deterministic and stochastic reproduction numbers,respectively,in stage n of infection and treatment,we show mathematically that as the intensity of the noise in the transmission,treatment and recovery rates increases,the number of secondary cases of infection *** global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium for the deterministic and stochastic SEITR models is also *** work presented is demonstrated using parameter values relevant to the transmission dynamics of Influenza in the United States from October 1,2018 through May 4,2019 influenza seasons.

关键词： Susceptible Infection Treatment Recovery Stochastic epidemic model Stability Reproduction number

Care and Support Programmes for Orphans and Vulnerable Children: Achievements and Implications of HIV/AIDS Funded Project in Osun State, Nigeria

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World Journal of AIDS 2019年第4期9卷 195-213页

作者： Adebola A. Adejimi Ajibola Olagunoye Adeyemi Amuda Olubukola Alawale Oluwatoyin Adeola-Musa Abayomi Adenekan Akin Oyebade Mosur Bello michael Olugbile olusegun Adeoye Gabriel Olatunji Department of Community Medicine Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH) Teaching Hospital Osogbo Osun State Nigeria Department of Community Medicine University of Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria Department of Epidemiology and Disease Control Osun State Ministry of Health Osogbo Osun State Nigeria Osun State Agency for the Control of AIDS Osogbo Nigeria HIV Programme Development Project (HPDP2) World Bank Abuja Nigeria

Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVC) and their families face many challenges but there are opportunities to provide care and support programmes for them in their communities. This paper presents the achievements and implications of HIV Programme Development Project (HPDP) funded by World Bank on care and support services for OVC in Osun State, Nigeria. Eight Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) were engaged by Osun State Agency for the Control of AIDS (OSACA) as part of HPDP to provide care and support services for OVC between year 2013 and 2015. Using reporting tools, data collected by the CSOs were entered into District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2) platform and analysed using Microsoft Excel. In addition, Key Informant Interviews (KII) were conducted among the selected CSOs, OVC and the caregivers who were beneficiaries of HPDP in Osun State, Nigeria. A total of 12,353 OVC were reached and about half of them were female. There was an increase in the trends of number of OVC seen and the support services provided from the year 2013 to 2015. Of the 12,353 OVC that benefitted from this programme, 1905 (15.4%) received health care services, 5383 (43.6%) received nutritional services, 5317 (43.0%) received educational services and 9861 (79.8%) were provided with psychosocial support services. About 503 (4.1%) of the OVC received economic strengthening services while 270 (2.2%) of household heads were provided with economic support. However, 3 OVC were lost to follow-up, 14 OVC voluntarily withdrew from the project and 6 OVC died. The FGD and KII revealed that the project was very impactful in transforming the lives of the OVC. Programmes for children orphaned and made vulnerable by HIV/AIDS will contribute to the achievement of HIV/ AIDS prevention and control efforts. The HIV/AIDS free generation can be built by responding to the physical, social and mental needs of these children and their families in their communities. There is a need to scale-up this programme

关键词： HIV Orphans Vulnerable Children HPDP Care and Support Nigeria

Analgesic Efficacy of Paracervical Block for Manual Vacuum Aspiration of Incomplete Abortions: A Randomized Controlled Trial

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Open Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 2021年第8期11卷 955-972页

作者： Ekundayo O. Ayegbusi Akintunde O. Fehintola Akinyosoye D. Ajiboye Ayodele Idowu Tope O. Okunola michael S. Archibong Olajide E. Babalola olusegun O. Badejoko Morebise O. Loto Department of Obstetrics Gynaecology and Perinatology Faculty of Clinical Sciences College of Health Sciences Obafemi Awolowo University Ile Ife Osun State. Nigeria Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology State Specialist Hospital Ikare Akoko Ondo State Nigeria Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Ekiti State University Teaching Hospital Ado-Ekiti Ekiti State Nigeria

Introduction: Pain control during Manual Vacuum Aspiration is one of the most important aspects of postabortion care. This study assessed the analgesic efficacy, requirement for additional analgesia, and overall satisfaction using Paracervical blocks of 1% lignocaine compare with normal saline as placebo among women undergoing manual vacuum aspiration for incomplete abortion in OAUTHC, Ile-Ife. Methods: This was a double blind randomized controlled trial that occurred between January 2019 and February 2020. We randomized one hundred and twenty eligible women equally into 2 groups. Group A received paracervical block using 1% lignocaine while those in group B received paracervical block using normal saline as placebo. We obtained ethical clearance from the Ethics and Research Committee of the hospital. Preoperatively, we obtained relevant data and evaluated the degree of anxiety and pain on a visual analog scale (VAS). Intraoperative pain was evaluated from 2 viewpoints: that of the external observer on a 0 - 4 scale and that of the patient scale of 0 - 10 in the immediate postoperative period, followed by overall satisfaction at the point of discharge. We analyzed the data using SPSS version 20. Paired T test, independent T test Chi square<

关键词： Postabortion Care Pain Placebo Paracervical Block