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Prediction of malaria cases in the southeastern Iran using climatic variables:An 18-year SARIMA time series analysis

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2021年第10期14卷 463-471页

作者： Hamid Reza Tohidinik Hossein Keshavarz mehdi mohebali Mandana Sanjar Gholamreza Hassanpour HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV SurveillanceInstitute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran Center for Research of Endemic Parasites of Iran(CREPI) Tehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Medical Parasitology&Mycology School of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran

Objective:To predict future trends in the incidence of malaria cases in the southeast of Iran as the most important area of malaria using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)model,and to check the effect of meteorological variables on the disease ***:SARIMA method was applied to fit a model on malaria incidence from April 2001 to March 2018 in Sistan and Baluchistan province in southeastern *** variables such as temperature,rainfall,rainy days,humidity,sunny hours and wind speed were also included in the multivariable model as ***,the best fitted model was adopted to predict the number of malaria cases for the next 12 ***:The best-fitted univariate model for the prediction of malaria in the southeast of Iran was SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12[Akaike Information Criterion(AIC)=307.4,validation root mean square error(RMSE)=0.43].The occurrence of malaria in a given month was mostly related to the number of cases occurring in the previous 1(p=1)and 12(P=1)*** inverse number of rainy days with 8-month lag(β=0.3292)and temperature with 3-month lag(β=-0.0026)were the best predictors that could improve the predictive performance of the univariate ***,SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12 including mean temperature with a 3-month lag(validation RMSE=0.414)was selected as the final multivariable ***:The number of malaria cases in a given month can be predicted by the number of cases in the prior 1 and 12 *** number of rainy days with an 8-month lag and temperature with a 3-month lag can improve the predictive power of the model.

关键词： Malaria Time series SARIMA Forecasting Climate Iran

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In vitro and in vivo susceptibility of Leishmania major to some medicinal plants

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine 2017年第1期7卷 37-42页

作者： Fatemeh Maleki Mitra Zarebavani mehdi mohebali Mohammad Saaid Dayer Fateme Hajialiani Fatemeh Tabatabaie Faculty of Para Medical Sciences Iran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Allied Medical Sciences Medical Laboratory SciencesTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Center for Research of Endemic Parasites of Iran(CREPI) Tehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Parasitology and Medical Entomology Faculty of Medical SciencesTarbiat Modares UniversityTehranIran Department of Parasitology and Mycology Faculty of MedicineIran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran

Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of some medicinal plants and systemic glucantime in a comparative manner against the causative agent of cutaneous leishmaniasis both in vitro and in BALB/c ***: For in vivo testing, inbred mice were challenged with Leishmania major parasites and the resultant ulcers were treated with extract based-ointments applied topically two times per day for a period of 20 days. A group of 56 mice were randomly divided into 7 subgroups. The control group received the ointment void of extracts,whereas the reference group received glucantime only. The efficacy of treatments was evaluated by measuring ulcer diameter, parasite burden and NO ***: Our results indicated that plant extract based-ointments were effective in reducing ulcer size and parasite burden in spleens, but their effects did not differ significantly from that of glucantime. The plant extracts tested in this study were able to increase NO production that helped parasite ***: Our findings indicate that the tested plant extracts are effective against Leishmania major both during in vitro and in vivo experiments, but further researches are required to recommend a potential plant extract as an alternative drug.

关键词： Leishmaniasis Glucantime Plant extracts Mice Medicinal plants

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Data-Based Filters for Non-Gaussian Dynamic Systems With Unknown Output Noise Covariance

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IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica 2024年第4期11卷 866-877页

作者： Elham Javanfar mehdi Rahmani the Department of Electrical Engineering Imam Khomeini International UniversityQazvin ***Iran

This paper proposes linear and nonlinear filters for a non-Gaussian dynamic system with an unknown nominal covariance of the output *** challenge of designing a suitable filter in the presence of an unknown covariance matrix is addressed by focusing on the output data set of the *** that data generated from a Gaussian distribution exhibit ellipsoidal scattering,we first propose the weighted sum of norms(SON)clustering method that prioritizes nearby points,reduces distant point influence,and lowers computational ***,by introducing the weighted maximum likelihood,we propose a semi-definite program(SDP)to detect outliers and reduce their impacts on each *** these weights paves the way to obtain an appropriate covariance of the output ***,two filtering approaches are presented:a cluster-based robust linear filter using the maximum a posterior(MAP)estimation and a clusterbased robust nonlinear filter assuming that output noise distribution stems from some Gaussian noise resources according to the ellipsoidal *** last,simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed filtering approaches.

关键词： Data-based filter maximum likelihood estimation unknown covariance weighted maximum likelihood estimation weighted sum-of-norms clustering

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Preparation and evaluation of a glycerol-preserved direct agglutination antigen for long-term preservation:a comparative study of the detection of anti-Leishmania infantum antibodies in human and dog

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2012年第2期5卷 117-120页

作者： Behnaz Akhoundi mehdi mohebali Gholam-Hossein Edrissian Mohammad-Bagher Eslami Hossein Keshavarz Hossein Malekafzali Mohammad-Bagher Rokni Department of Medical Parasitology and Mycology School of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Pathobiology School of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology School of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran

Objective:To prepare and evaluate a glycerol-preserved antigen from an Iranian strain of Leishmania infantum(L infantum) for use in glycerol-preserved direct agglutination tests (GP-DAT) as an alternative to freeze dried direct agglutination teals(FD-DAT) that use freezedried ***:Glycerol-preserved DAT antigen was prepared and stored at different *** tested antigen stored at 4℃,22-37℃and 50℃over a period of 365 days. Seven hundred twenty-nine serum samples were collected from different geographical zones of Iran from 2007-2009,and 80 of these samples were pooled to produce *** pooled serum contained 10 *** positive and negative pooled sera were separately tested for anti-L. infantum antibodies with GP-DAT,FD-DAT and formaldehyde-fixed direct agglutination test (FF-DAT) antigens;tests were performed on both human and dog sera over a period of 12 months. Results:There was strong agreement between the results obtained using GP-DAT and FDDAT antigens stored at 22-37℃for 12 months for both human(100%) and dog(100%) pooled *** direct agglutination test results were highly reproducible(weighted kappa:GP=0.833, FD=0.979 and FF=0.917).Conclusions:Because GP-DAT antigen is highly stable over a range of temperatures and is easy to transport in the field,this type of antigen may be particularly useful in areas with endemic visceral leishmaniasis.

关键词： Leishmania infantum Direct agglutination test antigen Preservation Glycerol Iran

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Reinforcement Learning-Empowered Graph Convolutional Network Framework for Data Integrity Attack Detection in Cyber-Physical Systems

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CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems 2024年第2期10卷 797-806页

作者： Edeh Vincent mehdi Korki mehdi Seyedmahmoudian Alex Stojcevski Saad Mekhilef School of Science Computingand Engineering TechnologiesSwinburne University of TechnologyMelbourneAustralia

The massive integration of communication and information technology with the large-scale power grid has enhanced the efficiency, safety, and economical operation of cyber-physical systems. However, the open and diversified communication environment of the smart grid is exposed to cyber-attacks. Data integrity attacks that can bypass conventional security techniques have been considered critical threats to the operation of the grid. Current detection techniques cannot learn the dynamic and heterogeneous characteristics of the smart grid and are unable to deal with non-euclidean data types. To address the issue, we propose a novel Deep-Q-Network scheme empowered with a graph convolutional network (GCN) framework to detect data integrity attacks in cyber-physical systems. The simulation results show that the proposed framework is scalable and achieves higher detection accuracy, unlike other benchmark techniques.

关键词： Deep reinforcement learning graph convolutional network heterogeneous smart grid network

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A novel mitigation measure for normal fault-induced deformations on pile-raft systems

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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration 2024年第1期23卷 15-33页

作者： Mohammadreza Jahanshahi Nowkandeh mehdi Ashtiani Faculty of Civil Engineering Babol Noshirvani University of TechnologyBabolIran

Evidence from recent earthquakes has shown destructive consequences of fault-induced permanent ground movement on *** observations have increased the demand for improvements in the design of structures that are dramatically vulnerable to surface fault *** this study a novel connection between the raft and the piles is proposed to mitigate the hazards associated with a normal fault on pile-raft systems by means of 3D finite element(FE)*** embarking on the parametric study,the strain-softening constitutive law used for numerical modeling of the sand has been validated against centrifuge test *** exact location of the fix-head and unconnected pile-raft systems relative to the outcropping fault rupture in the free-field is parametrically investigated,revealing different failure *** performance of the proposed connection for protecting the pile-raft system against normal fault-induced deformations is assessed by comparing the geotechnical and structural responses of both types of *** results indicate that the pocket connection can relatively reduce the cap rotation and horizontal and vertical displacements of the raft in most *** proposed connection decreases the bending moment response of the piles to their bending moment capacity,verging on a fault offset of 0.6 m at bedrock.

关键词： normal fault rupture failure mechanism pile-raft system pocket connection finite element modeling

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Morphometric discrimination between females of two isomorphic sand fly species, Phlebotomus caucasicus and Phlebotomus mongolensis(Diptera:Phlebotominae) in endemic and non-endemic foci of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2019年第4期12卷 153-162页

作者： Azad Absavaran mehdi mohebali Vahideh Moin-Vaziri Alireza Zahraei-Ramazani Amir Ahmad Akhavan Fariba Mozaffarian Sayena Rafizadeh Yavar Rassi Department of Medical Entomology and Vector control School of Public Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences Department of Medical Parasitology and Mycology School of Public Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences Department of Medical Parasitology and Mycology School of Medicine Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Insect Taxonomy Research Department Iranian Research Institute of Plant Protection Ministry of Health and Medical Education

Objective: To delineate reliable morphological characteristics for identifying and separating female Phlebotomus caucasicus and Phlebotomus mongolensis which exist sympatrically in the main foci of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in ***: Sand flies were collected using sticky trap papers from active colonies of rodent burrows installed from 16 catching sites. Morphometric measurements were analyzed of 87 Phlebotomus caucasicus and 156 Phlebotomus mongolensis. Univariate and multivariate analysis were carried out to determine significant morphometric variables for discrimination of the two species. Finally, seven morphological characteristics of 65 female Phlebotomus caucasicus and 124 female Phlebotomus mongolensis were ***: Univariate and multivariate analyses of 10 morphometric variables via Discriminant Function Analysis(DFA) and Principal Component Analysis(PCA) showed that five morphometric variables had an accuracy of 100% for discriminating female Phlebotomus caucasicus and Phlebotomus mongolensis. Moreover, PCA revealed that the five morphometric variables with the highest loadings separated these two species. Morphological studies on antennal flagellum(and its associated structures) and mouth-parts of female specimens demonstrated significant differences in several ***: The results show that morphological and morphometrical features can be used to discriminate two female isomorphic species, Phlebotomus caucasicus and Phlebotomus mongolensis accurately.

关键词： Leishmaniasis Phlebotomus caucasicus Phlebotomus mongolensis Morphometry Discriminant Functional Analysis Principal Component Analysis Iran

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On the occurrence of Neoplanorbulinella Matsumaru, 1976(Foraminifera) from the late Oligocene of Central Iran(Qom Formation):Palaeobiogeographic implications

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Journal of Palaeogeography 2024年第1期13卷 80-91页

作者： mehdi Sarfi Mohsen Yazdi-Moghadam School of Earth Sciences Damghan UniversityDamghan ***Iran National Iranian Oil Company Exploration Directorate Sheikh Bahaie SquareTehran ***Iran

The shallow marine carbonates of the upper Oligocene Qom Formation yielded several occurrences of the foraminiferan genus Neoplanorbulinella Matsumaru. Neoplanorbulinella saipanensis Matsumaru has so far been recorded from the late Eocene-early Miocene of Japan and late Oligocene of NE Italy whereas N. malatyaensis Gedik is only reported from the Oligocene from its type locality in the Malatya Basin, eastern Turkey. The new records reported here from the Qom Formation indicate that both species occur in the Dobaradar section, ca. 10 km south of the city of Qom in North-Central Iran. The palaeogeographic distribution of these two species therefore has to be extended as far as the palaeolongitude of current Central *** accompanying larger benthic foraminifers, including Miogypsinoides complanatus(Schlumberger),M. formosensis Yabe and Hanzawa, Spiroclypeus margaritatus(Schlumberger), Operculina complanata(Defrance), and Risananeiza pustulosa Boukhary et al., indicate the upper Chattian SBZ 23 Zone. The coexistence of the N. saipanensis and N. malatyaensis points to suitable palaeobiogeographic conditions of Central Iran to host Western and Eastern Tethyan taxa.

关键词： Larger foraminifers Planorbulinids Biostratigraphy Qom Formation Central Iran

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Coupling of RANS and BEM Solvers for Simulation of Propeller Behind the Hull in Full Appended Model

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China Ocean Engineering 2024年第3期38卷 424-438页

作者： Saeed NAJAFI mehdi POURMOSTAFA LIU Peng-fei Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science(INIOAS) Tehran 14155-4781Iran Department of Maritime Engineering Amir Kabir University of TechnologyTehran 15875-4413Iran Marine Offshore and Subsea TechnologySchool of EngineeringNewcastle UniversityNewcastle upon TyneNE17RUUK

To design a propeller for ship power plant,the interaction between ship hull and propeller must be taken into *** main concern is to apply the wake effect of ship stern on the propeller *** this paper,a coupled BEM(Boundary Element Method)/RANS(Renolds-Averaged Navier−Stokes)solver is used to simulate propeller behind the hull in the self-propulsion *** motivation of this work is to develop a practical tool to design marine propulsion system without suffering long computational *** unsteady boundary element method which is also known as panel method is chosen to estimate the propeller *** wakes are treated using a time marching wake alignment ***,a RANS code coupled with VoF equation is developed to consider the ship motions and wake field effects in the problem.A coupling algorithm is developed to interchange ship wake field to the potential flow solver and propeller thrust to the RANS *** on the difference between hull resistance and the propeller thrust,a PI controller is developed to compute the propeller RPM in every time *** of the solver is carried out using the towing tank test report of a 50 m oceanography research *** factor and trust deduction coefficient are estimated ***,the wake rollup pattern of the propeller in open water is compared with the propeller in real wake field.

关键词： RANS BEM coupled method ship propeller self-propulsion wake sheet pattern

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Visceral leishmaniasis among children in an endemic area of northwestern Iran between 2016 and 2017: An epidemiological study

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2019年第7期12卷 306-314页

作者： Hamed Behniafar Vahideh Moin-Vaziri mehdi mohebali Seyyed Javad Seyyed Tabaei Zabih Zarei Elham Kazemirad Behnaz Akhoundi Mohammad Kazem Saharifi-Yazdi Alireza Zahraei-Ramazani Department of Parasitology&Mycology School of MedicineStudent Research CommitteeShahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Parasitology&Mycology School of MedicineShahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Medical Parasitology&Mycology School of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Center for Research of Endemic Parasites of Iran Tehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Meshkin-Shahr Research Station National Institute of Health ResearchTehran University of Medical SciencesArdabilIran Zoonosis Research Center Tehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Medical Entomology and Vector Control School of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran

Objective: To clarify the epidemiological aspects of visceral leishmaniasis in Kaleybar and Khoda-Afarin districts, north-west of ***: A total of 1 420 human(children under 12 years) samples, 101 domestic dogs samples(Canis familiaris), and 577 female sand fly samples were collected. Sera of human and dogs were tested using the direct agglutination test, and sand flies were identified at species level using the microscopic method. Furthermore, a structured questionnaire was applied to evaluate the correlation between the potential risk factors and the related clinical signs/symptoms with the human and dogs’ ***: Totally, 2.18% of human samples were positive at titers≥1: 800;among them, 13 cases(41.94%) were above 1:3 200, and clinical symptoms were observed in all of them except for an 11-year old girl. Anti-Leishmania infantum antibodies were found at titer≥1: 320 in 9.90% of dogs’ samples, half of them had at least one sign of canine visceral leishmaniasis. Moreover, 10 Phlebotomus species were identified in the study areas, and Phlebotomus(Larroussius) major group was the predominant species. There are significant correlations between the presence of anti-Leishmania infantum antibodies and the fever(P<0.001), anemia(P=0.001) and weight loss(P=0.016) in children. On the other hand, significant correlations were revealed between the Leishmania infection and the shelter(P=0.039), cutaneous lesion(P=0.005), lymphadenopathy(P=0.001) and weight loss(P<0.001) in the infected ***: Visceral Leishmania infection is prevalent in rural areas of Kaleybar and KhodaAfar districts located in East-Azerbaijan province, therefore active detection and treatment of visceral leishmaniasis cases should not be neglected.

关键词： Visceral leishmaniasis Human Domestic dog Seroprevalence Risk factor Phlebotomus

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