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Finding the real COVID-19 case-fatality rates for SAARC countries

Biosafety and Health 2021年第3期3卷 164-171页

作者： md rafil tazir shah Tanvir Ahammed Aniqua Anjum Anisa Ahmed Chowdhury Afroza Jannat Suchana Department of Statistics Shahjalal University of Science and TechnologySylhet 3114Bangladesh Biomedical Research Foundation Dhaka 1230Bangladesh

The crude case fatality rate(CFR),because of the calculation method,is the most accurate when the pandemic is over since there is a possibility of the delay between disease onset and *** crude CFR measures can better explain the pandemic situation by improving the CFR ***,no study has thoroughly investigated the COVID-19 adjusted CFR of the South Asian Association For Regional Cooperation(SAARC)*** study estimated both survival interval and underreporting adjusted CFR of COVID-19 for these ***,we assessed the crude CFR between genders and across age groups and observed the CFR changes due to the imposition of fees on COVID-19 tests in *** the daily records up to October 9,we implemented a statistical method to remove the delay between disease onset and outcome bias,and due to asymptomatic or mild symptomatic cases,reporting rates lower than 50%(95%CI:10%–50%)bias in crude *** found that Afghanistan had the highest CFR,followed by Pakistan,India,Bangladesh,Nepal,Maldives,and Sri *** estimated crude CFR varied from 3.708%to 0.290%,survival interval adjusted CFR varied from 3.767%to 0.296%and further underreporting adjusted CFR varied from 1.096%to 0.083%.Furthermore,the crude CFRs for men were significantly higher than that of women in Afghanistan(4.034%vs.2.992%)and Bangladesh(1.739%vs.1.337%)whereas the opposite was observed in Maldives(0.284%vs.0.390%),Nepal(0.006%vs.0.007%),and Pakistan(2.057%vs.2.080%).Besides,older age groups had higher risks of ***,crude CFR increased from 1.261%to 1.572%after imposing the COVID-19 test fees in ***,the authorities of countries with higher CFR should be looking for strategic counsel from the countries with lower CFR to equip themselves with the necessary knowledge to combat the ***,caution is needed to report the CFR.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Case fatality rates SAARC Southeast Asia

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