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Contrasting climate drivers of seasonal growth in western vs. eastern Mexican mountain conifer forests

Forest Ecosystems 2023年第1期10卷 64-72页

作者： marin.Pompa-Garcia J.Julio Camarero Eduardo DVivar-Vivar Laboratorio de Dendroecologia Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y AmbientalesUniversidad Juarez del Estado de DurangoRio Papaloapan y Blvd.Durango s/n Col.Valle del SurDurango34120Mexico Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologia(IPE-CSIC) Avda.Montanana 100550192ZaragozaSpain

Hydroclimate affects the radial growth responses of trees, but the drivers of their spatial and population variability are not sufficiently understood. We addressed this issue by sampling several conifer populations located at the same latitude, but at different longitude and elevation in western(W) and eastern(E) Mexican regions. We used dendroecology to disentangle how earlywood width(EW), latewood width(LW) and adjusted LW(LWadj),i.e. the residuals after removing EW influences on LW, responded to climate variables(temperature and precipitation), climate indices(Southern Oscillation Index, SOI, nino 3.4, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) and a drought index(Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). The W species(Pinus herrerae martinez, Pinus durangensis martinez, Abies durangensis martínez and Cupressus lusitanica Mill.) showed lower growth rates than the E species(Pinus hartwegii Lindl., Picea mexicana martinez, Pseudotsuga menziesii(Mirb.) Franco and Abies vejari martinez). Growth in W benefits mostly from high precipitation in the prior winter and current spring and it is limited by high temperatures in spring, whereas growth in the E showed similar but weaker ***, positive(negative) correlations were found in radial growth with the nino 3.4(SOI) and the PDO from the prior to current autumns, which were again stronger in absolute terms in the W than in the E regions,excepting SOI in summer. In the W, P. durangensis and C. lusitanica were the least and most responsive species to spring drought, respectively;whilst P. menziesii and A. vejari were very responsive to spring drought compared to P. hartwegii in the E. Our results suggest greater responsiveness to hydroclimate and atmospheric patterns in the W than in the E region. These findings allow better interpretations of future changes in growth and composition in Mexican conifer forests, considering that climate models forecast warmer spring conditions and increased water s

关键词： Drought Earlywood El nino-Oscillation Latewood

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Prognostic factors and predictive model for in-hospital mortality following hip fractures in the elderly

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Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2018年第3期21卷 163-169页

作者： J. Sanz-Reig J. Salvador marin.J. Ferrandez martinez D. Orozco Beltran J.F. martinez Lopez J.A. Quesada Rico Department of Orthopedic Surgery Sant Joan d' Alacant University Hospital Alicante Spain Department of Medicine Miguel Hernandez University Elche Spain

Purpose： The incidence of hip fractures is increasing within the aging population. Our objective was to identify and quantify the risk factors and develop a predictive model for the in-hospital mortality among hip fracture patients older than 65 years. Methods： This is a prospective study conducted on 331 hip fracture patients older than 65 years admitted to our hospital from 2011 to 2014. Patients＇ demographics, prehospitalization residential status, pre- fracture comorbidity data, anti-aggregant and anticoagulant medication, preoperative hemoglobin value, type of fractures, type of treatments, time to surgery, and complications were recorded. Results： The average age was 83 years, 73% female, and 57% of them sustained a femoral neck fracture. In 62.8% of patients, the number of pre-fracture baseline comorbidities was 〉2. The in-hospital mortality rate was 11.4%. In multivariate analysis, age over 90 years, congestive heart failure, asthma, rheumatologic disease, lung cancer, and not taking antiaggregant medication were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. A formula and risk stratification scoring for predicting the risk for in-hospital mortality was developed, Risk-adjustment model based on these variables had acceptable accuracy for predicting in-hospital mortality （c-statistic 0.77）. Conclusion： Advanced age, and five prefracture comorbidities have a strong association with in-hospital mortality in a hip fracture patient older than 65 years old. Our predictive model was specifically designed for the old hip fracture population. It has an accuracy similar to other risk models. The specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value are high. In addition, it could discriminate a high risk patient from a low risk patient for in-hospital mortality.

关键词： Hip fractures In-hospital mortality Prognostic factors Elder population

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