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A multivariate analysis on spatiotemporal evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil

Infectious disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 670-680页

作者： marcio luis ferreira nascimento ph.d. Nano Group@UFBA Department of Chemical EngineeringPolytechnic SchoolFederal University of BahiaRua Aristides Novis 2Federação40210-630SalvadorBABrazil PEI-Graduate Program in Industrial Engineering Department of Chemical EngineeringPolytechnic SchoolFederal University of BahiaRua Aristides Novis 2Federação40210-630SalvadorBABrazil

This data-driven work aims to analyze and classify the spatiotemporal distribution of all Brazilian states considering data so diverse as the number of Covid-19 cases,deaths,confirmed cases per 100 k inhabitants,mortality per 100 k inhabitants and case fatality rates as health *** also considered population,area and population density as geographic ***,GdP and HdI were taken into account as economic and social *** this task data were collected from April 3rd until August 8th,2020,corresponding to epidemiological weeks 14e32,reaching three million cases and a hundred thousand *** this data it was possible to classify Brazilian states using multivariate methods into possible groups by means of non-hierarchical(k-means)cluster as well as factor *** was possible to group all states plus the Federal district into five clusters,taking into account these 10 variables over the first five months of the *** changes between states were observed over time and clusters,and between three and four factors were ***,even with great difference on health indicators during days,the number of clusters remains ***,S^ao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states were ranked at top list taking into account all epidemiological *** were observed between variables,such as the number of Covid cases and deaths with GdP for most of epidemiological *** clusters were more critical due to specific variables,including cities that are main *** multivariate findings would provide a comprehensive description of the ongoing Covid-19 epidemic and may help to guide subsequent studies to understand and control virus transmission.

关键词： Pandemic COVId-19 Coronavirus K-means clustering Factor analysis Spatiotemporal analysis

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