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0-10 KM TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILES RETRIEVAL FROM GROUND-BASED MICROWAVE RADIOMETER

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第2期24卷 243-252页

作者： BAO Yan-song CAI Xi QIAN Cheng min jin-zhong LU Qi-feng ZUO Quan Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Key Laboratory of the China Meteorological Administration Aerosol and Cloud Precipitation Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites National Satellite Meteorological Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

Deviation exists between measured and simulated microwave radiometer sounding data. The bias results in low-accuracy atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles simulated by Back Propagation artificial neural network models. This paper evaluated a retrieving atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles method by adopting an input data adjustment-based Back Propagation artificial neural networks model. First, the sounding data acquired at a Nanjing meteorological site in June 2014 were inputted into the Mono RTM Radiative transfer model to simulate atmospheric downwelling radiance at the 22 spectral channels from 22.234 GHz to 58.8 GHz, and we performed a comparison and analysis of the real observed data; an adjustment model for the measured microwave radiometer sounding data was built. Second, we simulated the sounding data of the 22 channels using the sounding data acquired at the site from 2011 to 2013. Based on the simulated rightness temperature data and the sounding data, BP neural network-based models were trained for the retrieval of atmospheric temperature, water vapor density and relative humidity profiles. Finally, we applied the adjustment model to the microwave radiometer sounding data collected in July 2014, generating the corrected data. After that, we inputted the corrected data into the BP neural network regression model to predict the atmospheric temperature, vapor density and relative humidity profile at 58 high levels from 0 to 10 km. We evaluated our model's effect by comparing its output with the real measured data and the microwave radiometer's own second-level product. The experiments showed that the inversion model improves atmospheric temperature and humidity profile retrieval accuracy; the atmospheric temperature RMS error is between 1 K and 2.0 K; the water vapor density's RMS error is between 0.2 g/m^3 and 1.93 g/m3; and the relative humidity's RMS error is between 2.5% and 18.6%.

关键词： ground-based microwave radiometer BP neural network atmospheric profiles regression accuracy

中国降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性

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地球物理学报 2007年第5期50卷 1330-1336页

作者：钟中胡轶佳闵锦忠解放军理工大学气象学院南京211101 江苏省气象灾害重点实验室南京210044

利用中国740站45年降水资料按5种分辨率分气候区计算了降水年际和年代际变率.降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性分析表明,中国各气候区降水年际变率对空间尺度的敏感性都随空间尺度的增加而逐渐减小,且存在明显的季节变化,而年代... 详细信息

利用中国740站45年降水资料按5种分辨率分气候区计算了降水年际和年代际变率.降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性分析表明,中国各气候区降水年际变率对空间尺度的敏感性都随空间尺度的增加而逐渐减小,且存在明显的季节变化,而年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性却随空间尺度的增加而增大,但不存在季节变化;由于中国各气候区降水的特殊性,各气候区降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感程度存在不可忽视的差异.在年际和年代际尺度上,西南地区降水变率对空间尺度都是最敏感的,因而该区域降水年际和年代际变率信号的检测最困难.而华南地区在年际尺度上比较敏感,年代际尺度却不敏感,但华南地区在年际和年代际尺度上区域内降水分布的非均匀程度对空间尺度的敏感性都最大.

关键词：中国降水年际和年代际变率敏感性空间尺度

Ideal Case Study of Adaptive Localization in Storm-scale Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第3期29卷 370-384页

作者：刘硕闵锦忠张晨高士博 Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Nanjing 210044 China Liaoning Province Meteorological Observatory Shenyang 110166 China Purdue University West LafayetteINUSA Shenyang Agricultural University Shenyang 110866 China

This study explores the use of the hierarchical ensemble filter to determine the localized influence of observations in the Weather Research and Forecasting ensemble square root filtering(WRF-EnSRF)assimilation *** error correlations between observations and background field state variables considered,the adaptive localization approach is applied to conduct a series of ideal storm-scale data assimilation experiments using simulated Doppler radar *** between adaptive and empirical localization methods are made,and the feasibility of adaptive localization for storm-scale ensemble Kalman filter assimilation is *** empirical localization,which relies on prior knowledge of distance between observations and background field,the hierarchical ensemble filter provides continuously updating localization influence weights *** adaptive scheme improves assimilation quality during rapid storm development and enhances assimilation of reflectivity *** characteristics of both the observation type and the storm development stage should be considered when identifying the most appropriate localization ***,combining empirical and adaptive methods can optimize assimilation quality.

关键词： EnSRF storm-scale hierarchical ensemble filter adaptive localization

Growth and Interactions of Multi-Source Perturbations in Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 118-131页

作者：张璐闵锦忠庄潇然王世璋魏莉青 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory Jiangsu Meteorological ServiceNanjing 210008 China Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing 210000 China

This study investigated the growth of forecast errors stemming from initial conditions(ICs),lateral boundary conditions(LBCs),and model(MO)perturbations,as well as their interactions,by conducting seven 36 h convectionallowing ensemble forecast(CAEF)*** cases,one with strong-forcing(SF)and the other with weak-forcing(WF),occurred over the Yangtze-Huai River basin(YHRB)in East China,were selected to examine the sources of uncertainties associated with perturbation growth under varying forcing backgrounds and the influence of these backgrounds on *** perturbations exhibited distinct characteristics in terms of temporal evolution,spatial propagation,and vertical distribution under different forcing backgrounds,indicating a dependence between perturbation growth and forcing background.A comparison of the perturbation growth in different precipitation areas revealed that IC and LBC perturbations were significantly influenced by the location of precipitation in the SF case,while MO perturbations were more responsive to convection triggering and dominated in the WF *** vertical distribution of perturbations showed that the sources of uncertainties and the performance of perturbations varied between SF and WF cases,with LBC perturbations displaying notable case ***,the interactions between perturbations were considered by exploring the added values of different source *** the SF case,the added values of IC,LBC,and MO perturbations were reflected in different forecast periods and different source uncertainties,suggesting that the combination of multi-source perturbations can yield positive *** the WF case,MO perturbations provided a more accurate estimation of uncertainties downstream of the Dabie Mountain and need to be prioritized in the research on perturbation development.

关键词： convection-allowing ensemble forecast forcing background perturbation growth interactions added value

Improved Weather Radar Echo Extrapolation Through Wind Speed Data Fusion Using a New Spatiotemporal Neural Network Model

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第4期29卷 482-492页

作者：耿焕同谢博洋葛晓燕闵锦忠庄潇然 School of Software Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044 China China Meteorological Administration Radar Meteorology Key Laboratory Nanjing 210023 China Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory Nanjing 210008 China

Weather radar echo extrapolation plays a crucial role in weather ***,traditional weather radar echo extrapolation methods are not very accurate and do not make full use of historical *** learning algorithms based on Recurrent Neural Networks also have the problem of accumulating ***,it is difficult to obtain higher accuracy by relying on a single historical radar echo ***,in this study,we constructed the Fusion GRU module,which leverages a cascade structure to effectively combine radar echo data and mean wind *** also designed the Top Connection so that the model can capture the global spatial relationship to construct constraints on the *** on the Jiangsu Province dataset,we compared some *** results show that our proposed model,Cascade Fusion Spatiotemporal Network(CFSN),improved the critical success index(CSI)by 10.7%over the baseline at the threshold of 30 *** experiments further validated the effectiveness of our ***,the CSI of the complete CFSN was 0.004 higher than the suboptimal solution without the cross-attention module at the threshold of 30 dBZ.

关键词： deep learning spatiotemporal prediction radar echo extrapolation recurrent neural network multimodal fusion

两种积云对流参数化方案对1998年区域气候季节变化模拟的影响研究

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大气科学 2008年第1期32卷 90-100页

作者：胡轶佳钟中闵锦忠解放军理工大学气象学院南京211101 江苏省气象灾害重点实验室南京210044

利用区域气候模式RegCM3,选择Kuo-Anthes积云对流参数化方案和基于FC80假设的Grell积云对流参数化方案,对1998年东亚气候分别进行年尺度模拟,模拟结果对比分析表明:在春、夏季转换时期,两者模拟的降水形势差别较大,对江淮、中南和华南... 详细信息

利用区域气候模式RegCM3,选择Kuo-Anthes积云对流参数化方案和基于FC80假设的Grell积云对流参数化方案,对1998年东亚气候分别进行年尺度模拟,模拟结果对比分析表明:在春、夏季转换时期,两者模拟的降水形势差别较大,对江淮、中南和华南地区的夏季降水量模拟差别最为明显。对流层上层模式变量和模式大气质量对积云对流参数化方案的选择不敏感,而对流层中、下层模式变量对积云对流参数化方案比较敏感。不同积云对流参数化方案对8天时间尺度的天气系统模拟差别比较大。在积云对流比较活跃的夏季,不同参数化方案会导致模式大气出现不同的系统性偏差。由于模式在陡峭地形处动力过程计算方案存在缺陷,在高原与盆地的交界处,模式误差会产生明显的突变。

关键词：区域气候模式积云对流参数化方案小波分解系统性偏差

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月和季节尺度区域气候模拟的对比分析

高原气象 2007年第4期26卷 862-873页

作者：胡轶佳钟中闵锦忠解放军理工大学气象学院江苏南京211101 江苏省气象灾害重点实验室江苏南京210044

利用区域气候模式RegCM3分别进行了东亚夏季月尺度和季节尺度区域气候模拟试验,并将两种时间尺度试验的逐月模拟结果进行了对比分析。结果表明,不同初始场和不同时间尺度模拟降水量存在一定的不确定性,但模拟的降水分布格局和模拟时间... 详细信息

利用区域气候模式RegCM3分别进行了东亚夏季月尺度和季节尺度区域气候模拟试验,并将两种时间尺度试验的逐月模拟结果进行了对比分析。结果表明,不同初始场和不同时间尺度模拟降水量存在一定的不确定性,但模拟的降水分布格局和模拟时间尺度关系不大,其模拟结果主要取决于模式对区域内大气降水过程的描述能力。两种时间尺度模拟的月平均环流形势几乎一致,随着模拟时间延长,两种时间尺度模拟的月平均环流、温度和湿度之间的差别在模式内部区域有所增加。但两者没有出现本质差别,且两者之间的偏差不会随模拟时间尺度的延长而无限制增长,只在一定范围内波动。两种时间尺度模拟对7月份淮河流域降水集中期暴雨和高低空急流刻画差别不大,但两者对8月份东北降水集中期模拟差别稍明显一些,其差别主要表现在对低空急流的模拟上。

关键词：区域气候模式RegCM3 月尺度模拟季节尺度模拟

夏季热带西太平洋对流与长江中下游降水关系的研究

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大气科学 2005年第6期29卷 947-954页

作者：闵锦忠李春吴芃南京信息工程大学江苏省气象灾害重点实验室南京210044 中国海洋大学海洋大气相互作用与气候实验室青岛266003

利用1979～2001年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析格点资料、OLR和中国160站的月平均降水资料,研究了夏季热带西太平洋对流活动与长江中下游降水的关系.结果表明,夏季热带西太平洋上空对流活动强(弱)时,长江中下游地区夏季降水显著偏少(多).而西... 详细信息

利用1979～2001年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析格点资料、OLR和中国160站的月平均降水资料,研究了夏季热带西太平洋对流活动与长江中下游降水的关系.结果表明,夏季热带西太平洋上空对流活动强(弱)时,长江中下游地区夏季降水显著偏少(多).而西太平洋副热带高压在夏季热带西太平洋对流和长江中下游地区降水之间起到了桥梁作用,通过副高的东西位置、面积、强度异常等影响东亚夏季风异常,进而造成长江中下游地区夏季降水异常.另外,热带西太平洋对流异常显著对应着在热带和中纬度地区呈经向分布的Rossby波列(即东亚遥相关波列),该波列结构的异常与长江中下游地区夏季降水异常也有密切的关系.

关键词：热带对流长江中下游降水副高东亚遥相关

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涌潮河口底摩擦系数伴随资料同化研究

水科学进展 2011年第3期22卷 400-406页

作者：陈耀登闵锦忠高玉芳南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室江苏南京210044 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院江苏南京210044 淮河流域气象中心安徽蚌埠233000

为更合理选取涌潮河口的底摩擦系数,基于无结构三角网格和有限体积法,建立了适用于反演潮汐涌潮河口底摩擦系数随空间和涨、落潮变化的伴随资料同化模型。一系列"孪生"实验均较精确地反演出了给定底摩擦系数。孪生实验表明底摩擦系数的... 详细信息

为更合理选取涌潮河口的底摩擦系数,基于无结构三角网格和有限体积法,建立了适用于反演潮汐涌潮河口底摩擦系数随空间和涨、落潮变化的伴随资料同化模型。一系列"孪生"实验均较精确地反演出了给定底摩擦系数。孪生实验表明底摩擦系数的空间分布会影响反演的精度,也表明充足的观测数据资料能够提高反演的准确性。利用实测数据进行了钱塘江河口伴随同化实验,得到涨、落潮底摩擦系数分别为0.000149和0.001520(相当于曼宁系数为0.012206和0.038987),利用该值模拟出了潮波变形和涌潮形成等现象,验证了前人在钱塘江河口数值模拟时关于底摩擦系数选取经验的合理性,反映了钱塘江河口底摩擦"涨小落大"的实质。

关键词：伴随方法资料同化底摩擦系数涌潮河口