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Some evidence of drying trend over northern china from 1951 to 2.04

chinese Science Bulletin 2006年第23期51卷 2913-2925页

作者： ma zhuguo1,2.& fu congbin1,{2. key laboratory of Regional climate-environment for temperate east asia, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002.,{12. 2. START Regional Center for temperate east asia, Institute of Atmos-pheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002.,{12. key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment for temperate east asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China START Regional Center for temperate east {2. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The surface wetness index, Palmer drought sererity index and the retrieval of soil moisture over china were calculated using monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature. Based on the contrast analysis of the variation of the above three indices and precipitation, the dry/wet spatio-temporal pattern of northern china in the last 54 years was revealed, and the evidence of drying trend over northern china was analyzed, especially. The results show the following four facts: (1) The drying trend is the main characteristic of the eastern part of Northwest china and the central part of North china since the 1980s and it was enhanced in the last 15 years mainly due to the precipitation decrease and the temperature increase; (2. During the last 54 years, there was only one dry/wet shift at the interdecadal scale occurring in the eastern part of Northwest china and the central part of North china in the late 1970s, which was related to 1977/1978 global abrupt change, whereas there were three shifts in Northeast china, one was in the mid 1990s and the other two were in 1965 and 1983, respectively; (3) Unlike the variation trend of other subregions of northern china, the western part of Northwest china is currently located in a relatively wetting period, which is weak-ened due to the temperature increase; (4) The extreme drought frequency is obviously increasing in the eastern part of Northwest china, the central part of North china and Northeast china since the 1980s, which is closely related to the precipitation decrease and temperature increase in these subregions.

关键词：中国北方干燥趋向干旱索引气候背景

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Correlations between North Atlantic Oscillation Index in winter and eastern china Flood/Drought Index in summer in the last 530 years

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chinese Science Bulletin 2005年第21期50卷 2505-2516页

作者： fu congbin & ZENG Zhaomei {2. laboratory of Regional climate-environment for temperate east asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences START Regional Center for temperate east asia, beijing 10002., china key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences START Regional Center for Temperate East Asia Beijing 100029 China

The time series of winter North Atlantic Oscil-lation Index (NAOI) in the period of 142.-1983 developed by Glueck and summer Flood/Drought Index (FDI) of eastern china in the period of 1470-1999 from 100 stations are used in this paper to study the potential impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the {2. in china. The analysis has ex-plored some significant lag correlations between FDI and NAOI. The maximum positive correlation coefficients be-tween NAOI and area-mean FDI in eastern and northern china lagging 2.3 years reach at 0.001 significance level, and while there are also negative correlation between NAOI and FDI in central and southern china at significance level of 0.05-0.01. The correlation between FDI and NAOI is time-dependent, i.e. the correlation coefficients between two indices vary from period to period. The highest correlation appeared in the period of 1636-1742. around the Little Ice Age, with the significant level of far above 0.001. The second significant period was from 1951 to 1999, at the level of 0.005-0.002. Both the power spectrum analysis and Morlet wavelet transformation have presented an interesting phe-nomenon: the area-mean FDIs in eastern and northern china share almost the same oscillation periods with NAOI in the inter-annual, decadal and centurial scales’ oscillations, i.e. 4-5, about 10, 2.-30, around 50 and 80-100 years, etc. The mann-Kendall Rank Statistic test reveals the significant trend and decadal abrupt changes in the series of area-mean FDIs in eastern and northern china in the past 530 years, while the NAOI in the past 400 years, did not show such trend at the significance level, but presented more frequent changes than those of FDI in china. This difference is per-haps due to the fact that the amplitude of the extremes of reconstructed NAOI series is less than that from instrumen-tal records.

关键词：中国洪水干旱气候变化大西洋振动系数

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Climatic changes in the Twenty-four Solar Terms during 1960-2.08

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Science Bulletin 2012年第Z1期 278-288页

作者： QIAN Cheng1,YAN ZhongWei1* & fu congbin1,{2.key laboratory of Regional climate-environment for temperate east asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,chinese academy of {12.,beijing 10002.,china 2.Institute for climate and Global Change Research,School of Atmospheric {12.,Nanjing University,Nanjing 2.0093,china

The temperature thresholds and timings of the 2. climatic Solar Terms in china are determined from a homogenized dataset of the surface air temperature recorded at 549 meteorological stations for the period 1960-2.08 employing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition *** in the mean temperature and timing of the climatic solar terms are *** results show that in terms of the mean situation over china,the number of cold days such as those of Slight Cold and Great Cold has decreased,especially by 56.8% for Great Cold in the last 10 years(1998-2.07) compared with in the *** number of hot days like those of Great Heat has increased by 81.4% in the last 10 years compared with in the *** timings of the climatic Solar Terms during the warming period(around spring) in the seasonal cycle have advanced significantly by more than 6 d,especially by 15 d for Rain Water,while those during the cooling period(around autumn) have delayed significantly by 5-6 *** characteristics are mainly due to a warming shift of the whole seasonal cycle under global ***,the warming shift affects the different Solar Terms to various extents,more prominently in the spring than in the *** warming tendencies for Rain Water,the Beginning of Spring,and the Waking of Insects are the largest,2.43?C,2.37?C,and 2.2.?C,respectively,for the period 1961-2.07 in china as a *** particular phenology-related climatic Solar Terms,namely the Waking of Insects,Pure Brightness,Grain full,and Grain in Ear,are found to have advanced almost *** semi-arid zones in northern china,advances of the timings of these four climatic Solar Terms are significant,12.1.,4-8,4-8,and 8-12.d,respectively,for the period *** quantitative results provide a scientific base for {12. change adaptation,especially in terms of agricultural planning and energy-saving management throughout a year.

关键词： Twenty-four Solar Terms climate change ensemble empirical mode decomposition human adaptation

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Global aridification in the second half of the 2.th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

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Science china Earth sciences 2007年第5期50卷 776-788页

作者： ma zhuguo {2. congbin key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment Research for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2.02.over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects {2. change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 2.th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52.years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

关键词： global dry-wet variation drying trend large-scale background interdecadal variation correlation

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Testing the ability of RIEMS2.0 to simulate multi-year precipitation and air temperature in china

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chinese Science Bulletin 2009年第17期54卷 3101-3111页

作者： ZHAO DeMing fu congbin YAN XiaoDong key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy ofSciences Beijing 100029 China

RIEMS2.0 (Regional Integrated environment Modeling System, Version 2.0) is now being developed starting from RIEMS1.0 by the key {2. of Regional climate environment Research for temperate east asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, chinese academy of sciences, china. In order to test RIEMS2.0’s ability to simulate long-term climate and its changes, as well as provide a basis for further development and applications, we compare simulated precipitation and air temperature from 1980 to 2.07 (simulation duration from Jan. 1, 1979 to Dec. 31, 2.07) under different cumulus parameterization schemes with the observed data. The results show that RIEMS2.0 can reproduce the spatial distribution of precipitation and air temperature, but that the model overesti{12.tes precipitation with the rainfall center moving northwestward and underesti{12.tes air temperature for annual simulations. Annual and interannual variations in precipitation and air temperature for different climate subregions are well captured by the model. further analysis of summer and winter simulations shows that precipitation is overesti{12.ted, except for the Jianghuai-Jiangnan subregions in the winter, and the air temperature bias in the summer is weaker than in the winter. There are larger biases for precipitation and air temperature in semiarid subregions. Ano{12.lies in precipitation and air temperature are also well captured by the model. Although a similar distribution can be found between observed data and simulated results under different cumulus parameterization schemes, these show differences in intensity and location. In sum, RIEMS2.0 shows good stability and does well in simulating the long-term climate and its changes in china.

关键词：空气温度年降水量中国模拟能力检验

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全球干旱/半干旱区年代尺度干湿变化研究的进展及思考

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大气科学学报 2023年第4期46卷 481-490页

作者：符淙斌马柱国南京大学江苏南京210044 中国科学院大气物理研究所中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室北京100029

干旱/半干旱区气候变化研究一直是广泛关注的前沿科学问题,尤其是气候干湿变化规律及未来的发展趋势。过去大量的研究揭示了全球不同干旱/半干旱区的干湿变化事实和机理,取得了一系列重要进展,IPCC第6次评估报告明确指出未来全球干旱化... 详细信息

干旱/半干旱区气候变化研究一直是广泛关注的前沿科学问题,尤其是气候干湿变化规律及未来的发展趋势。过去大量的研究揭示了全球不同干旱/半干旱区的干湿变化事实和机理,取得了一系列重要进展,IPCC第6次评估报告明确指出未来全球干旱化将加剧,但也存在诸多问题没有得到一致的认识。本文将对全球变暖背景下有关干旱/半干旱区年代尺度干湿变化,特别是年代尺度干旱研究进行梳理,系统评述当前相关研究的现状并提出干旱/半干旱区研究所面临的关键科学问题。

关键词：干旱/半干旱区年代尺度干湿变化人类活动影响

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1981-2.05年长江三角洲能见度变化趋势分析（英文）

1981-2005年长江三角洲能见度变化趋势分析（英文）

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第八届海峡两岸气溶胶技术研讨会暨第三届空气污染技术研讨...

作者： Lina Gao1, Gensuo Jia1 ,Renjian Zhang1* , congbin fu1,3 ,Tijian Wang4 ,Meigen Zhang5 ,Hong Jiang4 1 {2. laboratory of Regional climate-environment Research for temperate east asia, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 2.{2. laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry (LAC), Centre for Atmosphere Watch and Services (CAWAS), chinese academy of Meteorological sciences (CAMS), Cma, beijing 3 Department of climate and Global Change, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province 4 Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Provinc 5 State {2. laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, chinese academy of sciences, beijing

Visual range （VR） data from 1981 to 2.05 are examined for 2. meteorological monitoring sites in the Yangtze River Delta Region （YRDR） of china. Cumulative percentile analysis was used to construct VR trend. The 2.-year average domain average 50% VR was about 2..9 ± 1.9 km. Domain average 50% VR decreased from 1981 to 2.05 with a trend of -2.41 km /decade. The worst 2.%, 50% and best 2.% VR and variation rates for the 2. sites are analyzed. The 50% VR of the town, county-level city and prefecture-level city sites are 2..1 km, 2..5 km and 19.4 km, respectively. The best 2.% VR decreased fastest with the rate -3.5 km/decade. Regional median VR decreased from the coastal sites to the inland sites. Ridit analysis and cumulative percentile have been adopted to study the VR variation properties between economically developed areas （e.g., Nanjing and Hangzhou） and remote areas （e.g., Lvsi）. The two analyses both show that VR decreased in Nanjing and Hangzhou while remained constant in Lvsi from 1981 to 2.05.

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黄河流域气候与水文变化的现状及思考

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中国科学院院刊 2020年第1期35卷 52-60页

作者：马柱国符淙斌周天军严中伟李明星郑子彦陈亮吕美霞中国科学院大气物理研究所中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049 南京大学南京210093

黄河是中华民族的母亲河,孕育了博大精深的中华文明。同时,流域频发的水旱灾害也给黄河两岸的人民群众带来了深重的灾难。当前,由于全球增暖和人类活动加剧的影响,黄河流域气候及水文过程发生了显著的变化,流域整体气候的暖干化和人类... 详细信息

黄河是中华民族的母亲河,孕育了博大精深的中华文明。同时,流域频发的水旱灾害也给黄河两岸的人民群众带来了深重的灾难。当前,由于全球增暖和人类活动加剧的影响,黄河流域气候及水文过程发生了显著的变化,流域整体气候的暖干化和人类用水的不断增加使得黄河流域的水文干旱不断加剧。“退耕还林还草”政策的实施使得黄土高原的植被覆盖得到极大改善,有效地抑制了严重的水土流失,但同时也导致该地区土壤的干化和干土层的加厚,这些是黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展面临的重大问题,也是涉及气候-水-生态-人类社会如何协同发展的基础科学问题。

关键词：黄河流域气候暖干化径流减少人类用水

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关于我国北方干旱化及其转折性变化

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大气科学 2018年第4期42卷 951-961页

作者：马柱国符淙斌杨庆郑子彦吕美霞李明星段亚雯陈亮中国科学院大气物理研究所中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学北京100049 南京大学南京210023

过去半个世纪,中国经历了北方的"西湿东干"和东部的"南涝北旱"的降水分布格局。近十几年来,这种降水长期变化的分布格局是维持还是发生了变化?针对这个问题,本文基于年降水观测数据、自矫正的帕尔默干旱指数sc PDSI、地表湿润指数SWI及G... 详细信息

过去半个世纪,中国经历了北方的"西湿东干"和东部的"南涝北旱"的降水分布格局。近十几年来,这种降水长期变化的分布格局是维持还是发生了变化?针对这个问题,本文基于年降水观测数据、自矫正的帕尔默干旱指数sc PDSI、地表湿润指数SWI及GRACE(Gravity Recovery and climate Experiment)卫星数据反演的陆地水储量(TWS)对中国区域干旱化问题进行了再分析。结果表明,近16年(2.01~2.1.年),中国东部地区(100°E以东)"南涝北旱"的格局正在发生显著的变化,长江上中游及江淮流域已转为显著的干旱化趋势,而华北地区的降水已转为增加趋势,东部"南旱北涝"的格局基本形成;北方过去的"西湿东干"也转变为"西干东湿"的空间分布特征。显然,中国区域的降水格局在2.01年后发生了明显的年代尺度转折性变化,两种常用干旱指数sc PDSI和SWI的分析也证明了这一点。但GRACE的陆地水储量(TWS)的分析却显示,最近16年来,中国东部"南涝北旱"的格局仍未发生变化,北方大部分地区仍然处于干旱化的时段,且有加剧的趋势,其原因有待于进一步研究。

关键词：降水干旱化陆地水储量(TWS) 南涝北旱转折性变化

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