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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第15期52卷 2130-2139页

作者： ma zhuguo Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy ofSciences Beijing 100029 China

Based on monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT),the dry/wet trends and shift of the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1951 to 2005 have been analyzed through calculating surface wetness index (SWI). The results indicate that there was a prominent drying trend and an abrupt change in the analysis period. A per-sistent warming period with less precipitation from the mid and late 1970s to present was found,and a shift process exists from the wet to the dry in the central part of North China during 1951-2005. The transition is located in the mid to late 1970s,which should be related to the shift variation of large-scale climate background. The correlation analysis has brought about a finding of significant correlativity between PDO index (PDOI) and SAT,precipitation and SWI in this region. The correlation exhibits that the positive phase of PDOI (warm PDO phase) matches warming,less precipitation and the drought period,and the negative PDOI phase corresponds to low SAT,more precipitation and the wet period. The duration of various phases is more than 25 years. The decadal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean is one of the possible causes in forming the decadal dry/wet trend and shift of the central part of North China.

关键词：中国北方地区干湿趋势太平洋相关性

Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

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Science China Earth Sciences 2007年第5期50卷 776-788页

作者： ma zhuguo FU CongBin Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

关键词： global dry-wet variation drying trend large-scale background interdecadal variation correlation

An Analysis of Historical and Future Temperature Fluctuations over China Based on CMIP5 Simulations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第2期31卷 457-467页

作者： LIU Yonghe FENG Jinming ma zhuguo Institute of Resources and Environment Henan Polytechnic University Key laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The trends and fluctuations of observed and CMIP5-simulated yearly mean surface air temperature over China were *** general,the historical simulations replicate the observed increase of temperature,but the multi-model ensemble （MME） mean does not accurately reproduce the drastic interannual *** correlation coefficient of the MME mean with the observations over all runs and all models was 0.77,which was larger than the largest value （0.65） from any single model *** results showed that winter temperatures are increasing at a higher rate than summer temperatures,and that winter temperatures exhibit stronger interannual *** was also found that the models underestimate the differences between winter and summer *** ensemble empirical mode decomposition technique was used to obtain six intrinsic mode functions （IMFs） for the modeled temperature and *** periods of the first two IMFs of the MME mean were 3.2 and 7.2,which represented the cycle of 2-7-yr *** periods of the third and fourth IMFs were 14.7 and 35.2,which reflected a multi-decadal oscillation of climate *** corresponding periods of the first four IMFs were 2.69,7.24,16.15 and 52.5 in the observed *** models overestimate the period of low frequency oscillation of temperature,but underestimate the period of high frequency *** warming rates from different representative concentration pathways （RCPs） were calculated,and the results showed that the temperature will increase by approximately 0.9℃,2.4℃,3.2℃ and 6.1℃ in the next century under the RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.

关键词： CMIP5 surface air temperature representative concentration pathways warming rate ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Has the stilling of the surface wind speed ended in China?

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Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第7期64卷 1036-1049页

作者： Qing YANG Mingxing LI Ziqing ZU zhuguo ma Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100092China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Key Laboratory of marine Hazards Forecasting National Marine Environmental Forecasting CenterMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China

Since the 1960 s,the global land surface wind speed(SWS)has significantly weakened,a phenomenon known as global terrestrial *** latest research found that the stilling reversed around 2010,and since then the global SWS has been ***,there is still a lack of systematic quantitative analysis in *** analyzed the transition and regional differences in the long-term trends of the SWS in China based on observational SWS data from 1971 to *** results showed that annual mean SWS in China underwent a reversal from a continuously weakening trend to a significantly strengthening trend around 2014 and implying that stilling may have ended in *** reversal had obvious regional and seasonal *** Northeast China,Western Xinjiang as well as on the Tibetan Plateau,the years with both annual and seasonal mean SWS changing from weakening to strengthening were around 2013/2014,1993/1994,and ***,in the west of North China,SWS showed an obviously strengthening trend only in autumn and winter after 2007;while only autumn mean SWS showed a strengthening trend after 2012 in South *** should be noted that stilling is ongoing in the eastern and southern coastal areas,North China and Eastern Xinjiang.

关键词： Surface wind speed Stilling Reversal Strengthening trend

Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China

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Science China Earth Sciences 2017年第4期60卷 745-760页

作者： YANG Qing LI MingXing ZHENG ZiYan ma zhuguo Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The definition of a drought index is the foundation of drought ***,because of the complexity of drought,there is no a unified drought index appropriate for different drought types and objects at the same ***,it is crucial to determine the regional applicability of various drought *** terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment,and the observed soil moisture and streamflow in China,we evaluated the regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices:the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI),modified PDSI(PDSI_CN) based on observations in China,self-calibrating PDSI(scPDSI),Surface Wetness Index(SWI),Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),and soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing(CLM3.5/ObsFC).The results showed that the scPDSI is most appropriate for ***,it should be noted that the scPDSI reduces the value range slightly compared with the PDSI and PDSI_CN;thus,the classification of dry and wet conditions should be adjusted *** problems might exist when using the PDSI and PDSI_CN in humid and arid areas because of the unsuitability of *** SPI and SPEI are more appropriate for humid areas than arid and semiarid *** is because contributions of temperature variation to drought are neglected in the SPI,but overestimated in the SPEI,when potential evapotranspiration is estimated by the Thornthwaite method in these ***,the SPI and SPEI tend to induce wetter and drier results,*** CLM3.5/ObsFC is suitable for China before 2000,but not for arid and semiarid areas after *** with other drought indices,the SWI shows similar interannual and decadal change characteristics in detecting annual dry/wet *** the long-term trends of drought areas in China detected by these seven

关键词： Surface sensible heating Tibetan-Iranian Plateau coupling system(TIPS) Water vapor convergence Upper troposphere and lower stratosphere circulation Cooling center at tropopause

Understanding the Soil Temperature Variability at Different Depths:Effects of Surface Air Temperature,Snow Cover,and the Soil Memory

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第3期38卷 493-503页

作者： Haoxin ZHANG Naiming YUAN zhuguo ma Yu HUANG Key Laboratory of Regional−Climate Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Laboratory for Climate and Ocean−Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 519082China

The soil temperature(ST)is closely related to the surface air temperature(AT),but their coupling may be affected by other *** this study,significant effects of the AT on the underlying ST were found,and the time taken to propagate downward to 320 cm can be up to 10 *** the AT,the ST is also affected by memory effects-namely,its prior thermal *** deeper depth(i.e.,320 cm),the effects of the AT from a particular season may be exceeded by the soil memory effects from the last *** shallower layers(i.e.,may be blocked by the snow cover,resulting in a poorly synchronous correlation between the AT and the *** northeastern China,this snow cover blockage mainly occurs in winter and then vanishes in the subsequent *** to the thermal insulation effect of the snow cover,the winter ST at layers above 80 cm in northeastern China were found to continue to increase even during the recent global warming hiatus *** findings may be instructive for better understanding ST variations,as well as land−atmosphere interactions.

关键词： soil temperature surface air temperature soil memory snow cover nonlinear causality analysis

A daily drought index based on evapotranspiration and its application in regional drought analyses

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第2期65卷 317-336页

作者： Xia ZHANG Yawen DUAN Jianping DUAN Dongnan JIAN zhuguo ma Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

With climate warming, frequent drought events have occurred in recent decades, causing huge losses to industrial and agricultural production, and affecting people’s daily lives. The monitoring and forecasting of drought events has drawn increasing attention. However, compared with the various monthly drought indices and their wide application in drought research,daily drought indices, which would be much more suitable for drought monitoring and forecasting, are still scarce. The development of a daily drought index would improve the accuracy of drought monitoring and forecasting, and facilitate the evaluation of existing indices. In this study, we constructed a new daily drought index, the daily evapotranspiration deficit index(DEDI), based on actual and potential evapotranspiration data from the high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis dataset of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This new index was then applied to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of four drought events that occurred in southwest, north, northeast, and eastern northwest China in the spring and summer of 2019. Comparisons with the operationally used Meteorological Drought Composite Index and another commonly used index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, indicated that DEDI characterized the spatiotemporal evolution of the four drought events reasonably well and was superior in depicting the onset and cessation of the drought events,as well as multiple drought intensity peaks. Additionally, DEDI considers land surface conditions, such as vegetation coverage,which enables its potential application not only for meteorological purposes but also for agricultural drought warning and monitoring.

关键词： Actual evapotranspiration Potential evapotranspiration Daily drought index Meteorological drought Drought events

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Impact of oceans on climate change in drylands

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Science China Earth Sciences 2019年第6期62卷 891-908页

作者： Xiaodan GUAN Jieru ma Jianping HUANG Ruixin HUANG Lei ZHANG zhuguo ma Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Drylands account for approximately 41% of the global total land area. Significant warming and rare precipitation in drylands result in a fragile ecology and deterioration of the living environment, making it more sensitive to global climate change. As an important regulator of the Earth's climate system, the oceans play a vital role in the process of climate change in drylands. In modern climate change in particular, the impact of marine activities on climate change in drylands cannot be neglected. This paper reviews the characteristics of climate change in drylands over the past 100 years, and summarizes the researches conducted on the impact of marine activities on these changes. The review focuses on the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO), El Ni?o and La Ni?a on climate change in drylands, and introduces the mechanisms by which different oceanic oscillation factors synergistically affect climate change in *** have shown that global drylands have experienced a significant intensification in warming in the past 100 years, which shows obvious characteristics of interdecadal dry/wet variations. The characteristics of these changes are closely related to the oscillatory factors of the oceanic interdecadal scale. Different phase combinations of oceanic oscillation factors significantly change the land-sea thermal contrast, which in turn affects the westerly jet, planetary wave and blocking frequency, resulting in changes in the temperature and dry/wet characteristics of drylands. With the intensification of climate change in drylands, the impact of marine activities on these regions will reveal new characteristics in the future, which will increase the uncertainty of future climate change in drylands and intensify the impact of these drylands on global climate.

关键词： Impact of oceans on climate change in drylands AMO

Sensitivity of Potential Evapotranspiration Estimation to the Thornthwaite and Penman–Monteith Methods in the Study of Global Drylands

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第12期34卷 1381-1394页

作者： Qing YANG zhuguo ma Ziyan ZHENG Yawen DUAN Key Laboratory of Regional Climate–Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Drylands are among those regions most sensitive to climate and environmental changes and human-induced *** most widely accepted definition of the term dryland is a ratio,called the Surface Wetness Index(SWI),of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration(PET)being below *** is commonly estimated using the Thornthwaite(PET Th)and Penman–Monteith equations(PET PM).The present study compared spatiotemporal characteristics of global drylands based on the SWI with PET Th and PET *** showed vast differences between PET Th and PET PM;however,the SWI derived from the two kinds of PET showed broadly similar characteristics in the interdecadal variability of global and continental drylands,except in North America,with high correlation coefficients ranging from 0.58 to *** was found that,during 1901–2014,global hyper-arid and semi-arid regions expanded,arid and dry sub-humid regions contracted,and drylands underwent interdecadal *** was because precipitation variations made major contributions,whereas PET changes contributed to a much lesser ***,distinct differences in the interdecadal variability of semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions were *** indicated that the influence of PET changes was comparable to that of precipitation variations in the global dry–wet transition ***,the contribution of PET changes to the variations in global and continental drylands gradually enhanced with global warming,and the Thornthwaite method was found to be increasingly less applicable under climate change.

关键词： potential evapotranspiration global drylands Thornthwaite Penman–Monteith

Assessing Global Warming Induced Changes in Summer Rainfall Variability over Eastern China Using the Latest Hadley Centre Climate Model HadGEM3-GC2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 181-197页

作者： Yawen DUAN Peili WU Xiaolong CHEN zhuguo ma Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia (TEA) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter EX1 3PB UK State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China axe characterized spatially by meridionally banded structnres fluctu- ating on interannual and interdecadal timescales, leading to regional droughts and floods. In addition to long-term trends, how these patterns may change under global warming has important implications for agricultural planning and water resources over this densely populated area. Using the latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM3-GC2, this paper investigates the potential response of summer precipitation patterns over this region, by comparing the leading modes between a 4×CQ simulation and the model＇s pre-industrial control simulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analyses show that the first two leading modes account for about 20% of summer rainfall variability. EOF1 is a monopole mode associated with the developing phase of ENSO events and EOF2 is a dipole mode associated with the decaying phase of ENSO. Under 4×CO2 forcing, the dipole mode with a south-north orientation becomes dominant because of a strengthened influence from exces- sive warming of the Indian Ocean. On interdecadal time scales, the first EOF looks very different from the control simulation, showing a dipole mode of east-west contrast with enhanced influence from high latitudes.

关键词： rainfall variability global warming ENSO HadGEM3-GC2