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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU jiehua ma Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International Center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and *** consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal *** this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North *** some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming ***,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since ***,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

Impacts of the SSTs over Equatorial Central–Eastern Pacific and Southeastern Indian Ocean on the Cold and Rainy/Snowy/Icy Weather in Southern China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2023年第2期37卷 248-261页

作者： Zhuolei QIAN jiehua ma Zhicong YIN Shaoxing Meteorological Office Shaoxing312000 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster(KLME) Ministry of Education&Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044 Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029 Nansen–Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029 Southern marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai519000

Low temperature together with snow/freezing rain is disastrous in winter over southern *** studies suggest that this is related to the sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies,especially La Nina conditions,over the equatorial central–eastern Pacific Ocean(EP).In reality,however,La Nina episodes are not always accompanied by rainy/snowy/icy(CRSI)days in southern China,such as the case in winter 2020/*** there any other factor that works jointly with the EP SST to affect the winter CRSI weather in southern China?To address this question,CRSI days are defined and calculated based on station observation data,and the related SST anomalies and atmospheric circulations are examined based on the Hadley Centre SST data and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for winters of1978/1979–2017/*** results indicate that the CRSI weather with more CRSI days is featured with both decreased temperature and increased winter precipitation over southern *** SSTs over both the EP and the southeastern Indian Ocean(SIO)are closely related to the CRSI days in southern China with correlation coefficients of-0.29 and 0.39,significant at the 90%and 95%confidence levels,*** SST over EP affects significantly air temperature,as revealed by previous studies,with cooler EP closely related to the deepened East Asian trough,which benefits stronger East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM)and lower air temperature in southern ***,this paper discovers that the SST over SIO affects precipitation of southern China,with a correlation coefficient of 0.42,significant at the 99%confidence level,with warmer SIO correlated with deepened southern branch trough(SBT)and strengthened western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone(WNPAC),favoring more water vapor convergence and enhanced precipitation in southern *** presence of La Ni?a in both winters,compared to the winter of 2020/2021,the winter of 2021/2022 witnessed more CRSI days,perhaps due to the warmer SIO.

关键词： the cold and rainy/snowy/icy(CRSI)days sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies equatorial central–eastern Pacific Ocean(EP) southeastern Indian Ocean(SIO)

Influence of Internal Decadal Variability on the Summer Rainfall in Eastern China as Simulated by CCSM4

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第6期33卷 706-714页

作者： Yali ZHU Tao WANG jiehua ma Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences Climate Change Research Centre Chinese Academy of Sciences

The combined impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO） on the summer rainfall in eastern China was investigated using CCSM4. The strongest signals occur with the combination of a positive PDO and a negative AMO （＋PDO- AMO）, as well as a negative PDO and a positive AMO （-PDO ＋ AMO）. For the ＋PDO- AMO set, significant positive rainfall anomalies occur over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley （YR）, when the East Asian summer monsoon becomes weaker, while the East Asian westerly jet stream becomes stronger, and ascending motion over the YR becomes enhanced due to the jet-related secondary circulation. Contrary anomalies occur over East Asia for the -PDO ＋ AMO set. The influence of these two combinations of PDO and AMO on the summer rainfall in eastern China can also be observed in the two interdecadal rainfall changes in eastern China in the late 1970s and late 1990s.

关键词： Pacific Decadal Oscillation Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation eastern China summer rainfall CCSM4

Dynamic Downscaling of Summer Precipitation Prediction over China in 1998 Using WRF and CCSM4

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第5期32卷 577-584页

作者： ma jiehua WANG Huijun FAN Ke Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

To study the prediction of the anomalous precipitation and general circulation for the summer（June–July–August） of1998, the Community Climate System Model Version 4.0（CCSM4.0） integrations were used to drive version 3.2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF3.2） regional climate model to produce hindcasts at 60 km resolution. The results showed that the WRF model produced improved summer precipitation simulations. The systematic errors in the east of the Tibetan Plateau were removed, while in North China and Northeast China the systematic errors still existed. The improvements in summer precipitation interannual increment prediction also had regional characteristics. There was a marked improvement over the south of the Yangtze River basin and South China, but no obvious improvement over North China and Northeast China. Further analysis showed that the improvement was present not only for the seasonal mean precipitation, but also on a sub-seasonal timescale. The two occurrences of the Mei-yu rainfall agreed better with the observations in the WRF model,but were not resolved in CCSM. These improvements resulted from both the higher resolution and better topography of the WRF model.

关键词： seasonal climate prediction dynamic downscaling summer precipitation CCSM4 WRF

2022年8月南海典型空心台风“木兰”的诊断分析及高分辨率模拟

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大气科学学报 2024年第2期47卷 346-359页

作者：王静瑶于恩涛马洁华汪君陈冬陈科艺南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心江苏南京210044 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心北京100029 中国科学院大气物理研究所气候变化研究中心北京100029 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心北京100081 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院四川成都610225

利用站点观测、FNL分析数据和融合降水等多源资料,对2022年8月南海空心台风“木兰”的特征及成因开展系统的诊断分析,结果表明“木兰”属于南海的季风低压发展而成的弱台风,具有季风低压的特征,整个台风过程无明显台风眼,前期气旋环流... 详细信息

利用站点观测、FNL分析数据和融合降水等多源资料,对2022年8月南海空心台风“木兰”的特征及成因开展系统的诊断分析,结果表明“木兰”属于南海的季风低压发展而成的弱台风,具有季风低压的特征,整个台风过程无明显台风眼,前期气旋环流中有多个小环流。虽为弱台风,但其东北侧的低空东南急流配合南海充沛的水汽输送,以及陆地局部的强对流活动,造成了我国广东、广西和云南南部等地的大风和暴雨天气。使用中尺度模式WRF开展分辨率为9 km和3 km的嵌套模拟,结果显示模式能合理再现“木兰”的环流结构特征和演变过程,但模拟的副热带高压南侧季风槽偏强,风速偏大。模式模拟的台风路径与观测整体上较为吻合,与FNL分析资料的结果相比,WRF对降水量的模拟有显著改进,此外,WRF模式分辨率的提高可降低模拟降水的误差。

关键词： WRF “木兰”台风诊断分析空心台风高分辨率模拟

台风“烟花”登陆浙江前后强降水雨带变化特征及成因分析

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气象科学 2024年第4期44卷 643-654页

作者：钱卓蕾钱月平马洁华绍兴市气象台中国科学院气候变化研究中心中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢—南森国际研究中心南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院

利用GPM＿3IMERGM降水产品、地面加密自动站资料、黑体亮度温度(Blackbody Brightness Temperature, TBB)和ERA5再分析资料，研究台风“烟花”登陆浙江前后强降水雨带变化特征及其成因。结果如下：(1)台风“烟花”登陆前后降水强度减弱... 详细信息

利用GPM＿3IMERGM降水产品、地面加密自动站资料、黑体亮度温度(Blackbody Brightness Temperature, TBB)和ERA5再分析资料，研究台风“烟花”登陆浙江前后强降水雨带变化特征及其成因。结果如下：(1)台风“烟花”登陆前后降水强度减弱慢，强降水雨带分布不对称，登陆前强降水中心在北侧，且存在外围强降水雨带，登陆后强降水中心转至东侧并出现尾部雨带；(2)台风“烟花”引导气流弱、移速慢，台风“查帕卡”和“尼伯特”加强水汽输送，使得“烟花”强度减弱缓慢，维持强降水；“烟花”登陆前水汽输送主要来自南海，登陆后主要来自东侧西太平洋，有利于降水中心向东偏移；(3)垂直风切变的变化与台风“烟花”雨带中心移动有较好对应关系，雨带中心一般位于顺切变左侧或顺切变方向；台风“烟花”登陆前垂直散度场结构向北倾斜，台风区域内的上升运动自北向南减弱，登陆后散度场结构向东倾斜，上升运动自东向西减弱，台风降水中心逐渐从北侧移至东侧；(4)台风“烟花”登陆前的外围雨带受到杭州湾地形辐合和龙门山地形抬升作用影响，登陆后的尾部雨带主要与海岸线附近的摩擦辐合和四明山地形抬升有关。

关键词：登陆强降水雨带垂直风切变东风急流地形

Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? An AGCM simulation under summer “ice-free Arctic” conditions

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第8期57卷 921-926页

作者： ma jiehua WANG HuiJun ZHANG Yin Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Frequent winter snowstorms have recently caused large economic losses and attracted wide *** snowstorms have raised an important scientific *** scenarios of future global warming,will winter precipitation in China increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP 3) model projections under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1B scenario,we generated a possible future Arctic condition,the summer (September) "ice-free Arctic" *** then used corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and a set of CO 2 concentrations to drive an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM),for simulating East Asian climate *** experimental results show that during the boreal winter (December-January-February;DJF),global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario,producing substantial warming in Arctic regions and at high latitudes in Asia and North *** Siberian High,Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all ***,because of increased transport of water vapor to China from the north,winter precipitation would increase from south to *** addition,the significant increase in winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges.

关键词：大气环流模式冬季降水中国北方北极地区模式模拟夏季东亚冬季风二氧化碳浓度

Possible contribution of Arctic sea ice decline to intense warming over Siberia in June

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2022年第2期15卷 59-64页

作者： Ying Zhang Mengqi Zhang jiehua ma Dong Chen Tao Wang Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina

Siberia experienced intense heat waves in 2020,and this unusual warming may have caused more wildfires and losses of permafrost than normal,both of which can be devastating to *** on observational data,this paper shows that there was an intense warming trend over Siberia(60°–75°N,70°–130°E)in June during 1979–*** linear trend of the June surface air temperature is 0.90℃/10 yr over Siberia,which is much larger than the area with the same latitudes(60°–75°N,0°–360°,trend of 0.46℃/10 yr).The warming over Siberia extends from the surface to about 300 h *** geopotential height in the mid-to-upper troposphere plays an important role in shaping the Siberian warming,which favors more shortwave radiation reaching the surface and further heating the overlying atmosphere via upward turbulent heat flux and longwave *** Siberian warming is closely related to Arctic sea-ice decline,especially the sea ice over northern Barents Sea and Kara *** experiments carried out using and atmospheric general circulation model(IAP-AGCM4.1)confirmed the contribution of the Arctic sea-ice decline to the Siberian warming and the related changes in circulations and surface fluxes.

关键词： Intense Siberian warming Arctic sea ice decline Surface radiation flux Turbulent heat flux

Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model

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Science China Earth Sciences 2014年第8期57卷 2417-2427页

作者： ma jiehua WANG HuiJun Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

A global climate prediction system （PCCSM4） was developed based on the Community Climate System Model, version 4.0, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）, and an initialization scheme was designed by our group. Thirty-year （1981-2010） one-month-lead retrospective summer climate ensemble predictions were carded out and analyzed. The results showed that PCCSM4 can efficiently capture the main characteristics of JJA mean sea surface temperature （SST）, sea level pressure （SLP）, and precipitation. The prediction skill for SST is high, especially over the central and eastern Pacific where the influence of E1 Nino-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） is dominant. Temporal correlation coefficients between the pre- dicted Nino3.4 index and observed Nino3.4 index over the 30 years reach 0.7, exceeding the 99% statistical significance level. The prediction of 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa zonal wind and SLP shows greater skill than for precipitation. Overall, the predictability in PCCSM4 is much higher in the tropics than in global terms, or over East Asia. Furthermore, PCCSM4 can simulate the summer climate in typical ENSO years and the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon well. These preliminary results suggest that PCCSM4 can be applied to real-time prediction after further testing and improvement.

关键词： climate model climate prediction ENSO monsoon

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