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Exploring the impacts of major events on the systemic risk of the international energy market

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Petroleum Science 2024年第2期21卷 1444-1457页

作者： Ming-Tao Zhao Su-Wan lu Lian-Biao cui School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics Anhui University of Finance and EconomicsBengbu233030AnhuiChina Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Science of Low-Carbon Development and Carbon Finance Anhui University of Finance and EconomicsBengbu233030AnhuiChina

This study examines the systemic risk caused by major events in the international energy market(IEM)and proposes a management strategy to mitigate it. Using the tail-event driven network(TENET)method, this study constructed a tail-risk spillover network(TRSN) of IEM and simulated the dynamic spillover tail-risk process through the cascading failure mechanism. The study found that renewable energy markets contributed more to systemic risk during the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19pandemic, while fossil energy markets played a larger role during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study identifies systemically important markets(SM) and critical tail-risk spillover paths as potential sources of systemic risk. The research confirms that cutting off the IEM risk spillover path can greatly reduce systemic risk and the influence of SM. This study offers insights into the management of systemic risk in IEM and provides policy recommendations to reduce the impact of shock events.

关键词： International energy market Tail-risk spillover Cascading failure mechanism Systemic risk management

中文期刊发表的预测模型系统评价文献调查与评价:方法学质量和报告质量

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协和医学杂志 2024年第4期15卷 927-935页

作者：王子怡卢存存黄家艺张晶磊尚文茹崔璐刘文迪邓秀秀赵晓晓杨克虎李秀霞兰州大学循证社会科学研究中心/卫生技术评估中心公共卫生学院兰州730000 兰州大学基础医学院循证医学中心兰州730000 中国中医科学院中医临床基础医学研究所北京100700 武汉大学公共卫生学院武汉430062 成都市郫都区中医医院消化科成都611730

目的评价中文期刊发表的预测模型系统评价文献的方法学质量和报告质量,为提高我国预测模型系统评价的整体质量提供依据。方法计算机检索中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台、中国生物医学文献数据库和维普数据库,获取自建库至2023年7月20... 详细信息

目的评价中文期刊发表的预测模型系统评价文献的方法学质量和报告质量,为提高我国预测模型系统评价的整体质量提供依据。方法计算机检索中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台、中国生物医学文献数据库和维普数据库,获取自建库至2023年7月20日发表的预测模型系统评价相关文献。由2名研究者独立筛选文献、提取资料后,采用AMSTAR(A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews)和PRISMA 2020(Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020)分别评价纳入的系统评价文献方法学质量和报告质量。结果共纳入发表于2015—2023年的55篇系统评价文献,其中12篇为Meta分析,最常见的研究主题为心血管疾病、脑卒中和糖尿病。预测模型系统评价文献的方法学质量需改进的内容主要涉及AMSTAR的条目1、4、5、6和10,报告质量需提高的内容主要涉及PRISMA 2020的条目7、10a、12、13a-f、14、15、16a-b,17、20b-d、21、22、23d、24a-c、25和26。纳入的系统评价文献方法学质量与报告质量具有中等程度的正相关性(r=0.58,P<0.001)。多重线性回归分析表明,较长的篇幅、近期发表和受到基金资助与更高的方法学质量相关(P<0.05);较长的篇幅、近期发表、发表为定性系统评价和受到基金资助与更高的报告质量相关,但更多的作者却与更低的报告质量相关(P<0.05)。结论当前中文期刊发表的预测模型系统评价的方法学质量和报告质量整体较低,尚有待提高。

关键词：预测模型系统评价报告质量方法学质量

个体预后与诊断多变量预测模型系统评价/Meta分析报告规范(TRIPOD-SRMA)解读

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中国循证医学杂志 2024年第2期24卷 202-210页

作者：王子怡卢存存张晶磊黄家艺刘文迪尚文茹陈子佳崔璐赵晓晓胡晓晔杨克虎李秀霞兰州大学循证社会科学研究中心/卫生技术评估中心兰州大学公共卫生学院兰州730000 兰州大学循证医学中心兰州大学基础医学院兰州730000 中国中医科学院中医临床基础医学研究所北京100700 武汉大学公共卫生学院武汉430062

临床预测模型通常使用多个变量的组合来预测个体的健康结局,然而针对同一结局往往存在着多个预测模型,这增加了选择合适的模型用以指导临床实践的难度。近年来,使用系统评价/Meta分析评估和总结预测模型的研究越来越多,但它们对于关键... 详细信息

临床预测模型通常使用多个变量的组合来预测个体的健康结局,然而针对同一结局往往存在着多个预测模型,这增加了选择合适的模型用以指导临床实践的难度。近年来,使用系统评价/Meta分析评估和总结预测模型的研究越来越多,但它们对于关键信息的报告往往存在不足。为了提高预测模型系统评价/Meta分析的报告质量,2023年3月国外学者在BMJ发表了TRIPOD-SRMA报告规范。考虑到国内此类系统评价/Meta分析的数量正在快速增加,本文结合实例对该报告规范进行解读,旨在帮助国内学者更好地理解与应用TRIPODSRMA报告规范,以期帮助提高相关研究的整体质量。

关键词： TRIPOD-SRMA 系统评价 Meta分析报告规范预测模型

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专业技术岗位聘任工作系统的设计与应用

中国数字医学 2024年第9期19卷 62-66页

作者：刘娜娜李晓崔璐于泽楷杨静中国疾病预防控制中心人事处北京102206 中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所纪检监察审计室中国疾病预防控制中心营养与健康所人事处

目的:利用信息化技术手段建设专业技术岗位聘任工作系统,提升专业技术岗位和人员管理能力,提高人力资源管理水平。方法:分析传统专业技术岗位聘任工作存在的问题,将岗位聘任工作流程嵌入信息系统,构建全流程专业技术岗位聘任工作系统,... 详细信息

目的:利用信息化技术手段建设专业技术岗位聘任工作系统,提升专业技术岗位和人员管理能力,提高人力资源管理水平。方法:分析传统专业技术岗位聘任工作存在的问题,将岗位聘任工作流程嵌入信息系统,构建全流程专业技术岗位聘任工作系统,并阐述其建设和应用情况。结果:基于实际业务流程和场景进行功能设计和构建,具有规范流程、明确权责、提高效率和数据分析能力等优势和特点。结论:实现了专业技术岗位聘任工作信息化、便捷化,节省了大量的人力和时间成本,有效提高了管理能力和水平。

关键词：专业技术岗位聘任管理平台建设

The Observation of Small Polaron Tunnelling in the ab-Plane of K_(0.85)Fe_(1.66)Se_(2.0)

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Chinese Physics Letters 2013年第10期30卷 171-174页

作者： MA Yong-Chang YAN Qian ZHAO Jie lu cui-Min School of Materials Science and Engineering Tianjin University of TechnologyTianjin 300384 Tianjin Key Lab for Photoelectric Materials and Devices Tianjin 300384 Key Laboratory of Display Materials and Photoelectric Devices(Ministry of Education) Tianjin University of TechnologyTianjin 300384

The temperature-dependent conductivity spectrum from 3×10^(2) Hz to 1×10^(8) Hz in the ab-plane of a K0.85Fe1.66Se2.0 single crystal is *** dc measurements indicate that the charge transport can be described well by the variable range hopping *** the ac conductivity spectrum,clear evidence for small polaron tunnelling with an activation energy of about 155 meV in ab-plane is *** decreasing temperature,the real part of the dielectric spectrum shifts towards lower frequencies and also shows a wider distribution of the relaxation *** 140 K,the peak position of the dielectric loss spectra begins to deviate from thermal excitation behavior,reflecting the freezing of the phonon which assists the tunnelling.

关键词： spectrum dielectric conductivity

Trends and hotspots of global ultra-processed food research(2010-2023):A scientometric study

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Food and Health 2024年第1期6卷 1-15页

作者： Zi-Yi Wang Cun-Cun lu Wen-Di Liu lu cui Xiu-Xiu Deng Zhi-Jiang Bi Fen-Fen E Ke-Hu Yang Xiu-Xia Li Health Technology Assessment Center Evidence-Based Social Science Research CenterSchool of Public HealthLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Evidence Based Medicine Center School of Basic Medical SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Institute of Basic Research in Clinical Medicine China Academy of Chinese Medical SciencesBeijing 100700China Department of Gastroenterology Chengdu Pidu District Hospital of Traditional Chinese MedicineChengdu 611730China Department of Cardiology Qinghai Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese MedicineXining 810000China

Background:Recently,ultra-processed foods(UPFs)have attracted considerable attention,leading to numerous studies *** is currently gaining popularity among scientific communities,offering advantage of providing critical references to scholars of specific ***:This scientometric study aimed to analyze trends and hotspots of UPF research using English articles or reviews related to UPFs retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection on March 5,*** independent researchers selected the identified records on titles,abstracts,and author’s keywords,and the data were analyzed using R-bibliometrix,CiteSpace,and ***:A total of 1018 publications(901 articles and 117 reviews)published from 2010 to 2023 were *** result showed a significant increase in UPF publications over the past *** published the highest number of papers(n=473),with over half of the top 10 active institutions were located in *** University of São Paulo contributed the most publications(n=206)and the 10 most productive authors belonged to this institution,with Monteiro CA and Levy RB contributing the most *** main research foundations included the NOVA system,the definition of UPFs,the prevalence of UPFs,and the impact of UPFs on dietary quality and health *** main research frontiers included topics such as“systematic review,”“NOVA food classification,”“COVID-19,”“diabetes,”“pregnancy,”“food addiction,”“warning labels,”“plant-based diet,”and“commercial determinants of health”.Conclusions:This study provided a comprehensive overview of development trends and research hotspots of global UPF studies.

关键词： scientometrics ultra-processed foods VOSviewer CiteSpace health

Triple signal amplification electrochemical sensing platform for Hg^(2+) in water without direct modification of the working electrode

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2024年第7期18卷 157-167页

作者： Liuyin Hu Jiahua cui Tao lu Yalin Wang Jinping Jia School of Environmental Science and Engineering Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai 200240China School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai 200240China International Copper Association Ltd.Shanghai 200020China

An ultrasensitive electrochemical biosensor to detect trace Hg^(2+)in environmental samples was developed utilizing nanogold-decorated magnetic reduced graphene oxide(MrGO-AuNPs),exonuclease III-assisted target cycle(Exo Ⅲ-ATC)and hybridization chain reaction(HCR)synergistic triple signal *** MrGO-AuNPs is a superior carrier for capture DNA(cDNA)and acts as magnetic media for automatic separation and *** innovative utilization of the magnetism and improved sensing efficiency obviates the need for direct modification and repeated polishing of the working ***,the three DNA hairpins(cDNA,methylene blue(MB)labeled HP1 and HP2)further contribute to biosensor specificity and *** cDNA captures Hgt,it activates Exo Ⅲ-ATC due to the formation of a sticky end in the DNA stem via thymine-Hig-thymidine(T-Hg^(2+)-T),this leads to the hydrolysis of self-folded DNA by Exo Ⅲ-ATC to form"key"DNA(kDNA).The kDNA subsequently initiates HCR,resulting in massive super-sandwich structures(kDNA-[HP1/HP2])carrying signaling molecules on MrGO-AuNPs,and this overall structure serves as a signal probe(SP).Leveraging magnetic adsorption,the SP was automatically adsorbed onto the magneto-glass carbon electrode(MGCE),generating an amplified *** biosensor's detection limit(LOD)was 3.14 pmol/L,far below the limit of 10 nmol/L for mercury in drinking water set by the US *** biosensor also showed excellent selectivity when challenged by interfering ions,and the results of its application in actual samples indicate that it has good potential for practical applications in environmental monitoring.

关键词： Electrochemical sensing Hg^(2+) Amplification Graphene Hybridization chain reaction Exonuclease Ⅲ

Total-factor energy efficiency of ten major global energy-consuming countries

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第3期137卷 41-52页

作者： Xuan Wang Yonglong lu Chunci Chen Xiaojie Yi Haotian cui State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology Research Centre for Eco-Environmental SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education for Coastal Wetland Ecosystems College of the Environment and EcologyXiamen UniversityFujian 361102China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Improving energy efficiency is regarded as a key path to tackling global warming and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).In 2020,the energy consumption of the world's ten major energy-consuming countries accounted for 66.8%of the global *** paper applied data envelopment analysis(DEA)to calculate these ten major energyconsuming countries'total-factor energy efficiency(TFEE)at national and sectoral levels from 2001-2020,and explored the infuencing factors of total-factor energy efficiency with the Tobit regression *** results showed significant difference in the ten countries'energy *** United States and Germany topped the list for total-factor energy efficiency,while China and India were at the ***,the energy efficiency of the industrial subsector has increased significantly over the past two decades,while that of the other subsectors has been relatively *** industrial structure upgrading,per capita GDP,energy consumption structure,and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on energy efficiency with national *** consumption structure and GDP per capita were determinative factors of energy efficiency.

关键词： Total-factor energy efficiency SBM-UN model Major energy-consuming country Carbon emission reduction

Determination of the critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows by the perspective of physical mechanics and Shields stress

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第4期21卷 1160-1173页

作者： MA Chao ZHU Yongtai lu lu DU cui LYU Liqun DONG Jie School of Soil and Water Conservation Beijing Forestry UniversityBeijing 100083China Beijing Institute of Geological Hazard Prevention Beijing 100120China School of Software Engineering Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu610225China Civil and Environmental Engineering Department Clarkson UniversityNY 13699USA

The critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows is utmost importance for local early hazard *** paper presents research on the critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows through comparisons between slope gradients and three key factors,including topographic contributing area,dimensionless discharge,and Shields *** rainfall amount was estimated by utilizing in-situ rainfall records and a slope-dependent Shields stress model was *** created model can predict critical Shields stress more accurately than the other two ***,a new dimensionless discharge equation was proposed based on the corresponding discharge-gradient *** new equation,along with factors such as contributing area above bed failure sites,channel width,and mean diameter of debris flow deposits,predicts a smaller rainfall amount than the in-situ measured *** the slope-dependent Shields stress model performs well and the estimated rainfall amount is lower than the in-situ records,the sediment initiation in the experiments falls within sheet flow regime due to a large Shields ***,further sediment initiation experiments at a steeper slope range are expected in the future to ensure that the sediment transport belongs to mass failure regime characterized by a low level of Shields ***,a more accurate hazard forecast on the runoff-initiated debris flow holds promise when the corresponding critical slope-dependent dimensionless discharge of no motion,fluvial sediment transport,mass flow regime,and sheet flow regime are considered.

关键词： Infinite slope stability Shields stress Contributing area-slope gradient Rainfall back estimation