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Assessing the Variability of Heavy Rainfall during October to December Rainfall Season in Tanzania

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第2期11卷 267-283页

作者： lovina peter japheth Guirong Tan Ladislaus Benedict Chang’a Agnes Lawrence Kijazi Kantamla Biseke Mafuru Isack Yonah Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Nanjing University of Science and Technology Nanjing China

Heavy rainfall is one of the primary causes of flood during rainy season in Tanzania leading to severe socio-economic impacts. The study aimed at assessing and characterizing the variability of Heavy Rainfall Events (HREs) using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Mann-Kendal (MK) trend test, Correlation and Composite analysis methods. Based on the daily-observed precipitation and reanalysis data sets for the October to December (OND) rainfall season of 35 years (1981-2015), the spatial and temporal characteristics of HREs in Tanzania are studied. The relationship between heavy rainfall (HR) and large-scale circulation anomalies including the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Ni?o southern oscillation (ENSO) indices was assessed. The study found that, approximately 590 HREs were concentrated over northern sector and coastal belt of Tanzania. The monthly variability indicates that HREs are more pronounced in December followed by November while October being the least affected. The occurrence of HREs over the Lake Victoria, Kigoma and Tabora is largely attributed to low-level convergence of westerlies and enhanced moisture from Congo basin accompanied by a pronounced rising limb of Indian Walker circulation cell. A time-series analysis of HRE exhibits an inter-annual variation characterized by a slightly increasing trend, though the computed trends were not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. In most part of Tanzania HREs were positively correlated with both ENSO and IOD indices, underscoring the critical role of ENSO and Indian Ocean dynamic in modulating rainfall variability over the region. In general, it has been found that most of the HREs are generally triggered or amplified by large-scale circulation patterns such as ENSO and IOD.

关键词： Rainfall Variability Heavy Rainfall Events OND Tanzania

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Trends of Temperature Extreme Indices over Arusha and Kilimanjaro Regions in Tanzania

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第3期11卷 520-534页

作者： Ladislaus Benedict Chang’a lovina peter japheth Agnes Lawrence Kijazi Elisia Hamisi Zobanya Leila Francis Muhoma Meshack Anton Mliwa Jafari Swalehe Chobo Research and Applied Meteorology Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Agrometeorological Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Climatology and Climate Change Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Volunteers Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania

The study aimed at analyzing the trends and variability of temperature extremes over the northeastern highlands in Tanzania, specifically over Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. Quality controlled mean monthly, daily maximum and minimum temperature data for the period 1961 to 2020, obtained from Tanzania Meteorological Authority, were used in the study. Rclimdex and the National Climate Monitoring Products (NMCP) software, developed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), were used for computation of the indices at a monthly, season

关键词： Climate Extreme Warm Night Cold Night Extreme Temperature Indices NCMP

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