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SEASONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2019年第3期8卷 134-149页

作者： Philip Klotzbach Eric Blake Joanne Camp louis-philippe caron Johnny C.L.Chan Nam-Young Kang Yuri Kuleshov Sai-Ming Lee Hiroyuki Murakami Mark Saunders Yuhei Takaya Frederic Vitart Ruifen Zhan Colorado State University Fort CollinsUSA NOAA/National Hurricane Center MiamiUSA Met Office ExeterUK Barcelona Supercomputing Centre BarcelonaSpain Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre School of Energy and EnvironmentCity University of Hong KongHong KongChina National Typhoon Center/Korea Meteorological Administration SeoulRepublic of Korea Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneAustralia Hong Kong Observatory Hong KongChina Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton University/University Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchUSA University College London SurreyUK Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyTokyoJapan European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ReadingUK Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration ShanghaiChina

This paper summarizes the forecast methods,outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity around the *** agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional *** addition,several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall *** Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over ***-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for *** hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins.A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal(e.g.,multi-year)timescales is *** for future areas of research are also discussed.

关键词： hurricane typhoon tropical cyclone seasonal forecasting forecast skill

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Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第3期12卷 182-199页

作者： Yuhei Takaya louis-philippe caron Eric Blake Francois Bonnardot Nicolas Bruneau Joanne Camp Johnny Chan Paul Gregory Jhordanne J.Jones Namyoung Kang Philip J.Klotzbach Yuriy Kuleshov Marie-Dominique Leroux Julia F.Lockwood Hiroyuki Murakami Akio Nishimura Dushmanta R.Pattanaik Tom J.Philp Yohan Ruprich-Robert Ralf Toumi Frederic Vitart Seonghee Won Ruifen Zhan Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological AgencyIbarakiJapan Ouranos MontrealCanada National Hurricane Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMiamiUSA Meteo-France Direction Interregionale pour l'Ocean IndienSaint-Denisde La ReunionFrance Reask LondonUK Bureau of Meteorology VictoriaAustralia City University of Hong Kong Hong KongChina Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center ShanghaiChina Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghaiChina Department of Earth Atmosphericand Planetary SciencesPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA University Corporation for Atmospheric Research BoulderUSA Department of Geography Kyungpook National UniversityDaeguRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology(RMIT)University MelbourneAustralia Met Office Hadley Centre ExeterUK National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory PrincetonUSA Japan Meteorological Agency TokyoJapan India Meteorological Department New DelhiIndia Maximum Information LondonUK Barcelona Supercomputing Center BarcelonaSpain Department of Physics Imperial College LondonLondonUK European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ReadingUK Korea Meteorological Administration JejuRepublic of Korea Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina

Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early ***,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders:current operational products are mainly basin-scale information,while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision *** fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward,this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)*** particular,this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence,and multi-annual TC *** also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic,Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's *** knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.

关键词： Tropical cyclones Seasonal forecasting Climate services

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Recurrent Clostridium difficile infections:The importance of the intestinal microbiota

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2014年第23期20卷 7416-7423页

作者： Marie Céline Zanella Terrier Martine louis Simonet philippe Bichard Jean louis Frossard Service of General Internal Medicine Geneva University Hospital1211 GenevaSwitzerland Service of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Geneva University Hospital1211 GenevaSwitzerland

Clostridium difficile infections(CDI)are a leading cause of antibiotic-associated and nosocomial *** effective antibiotic treatments,recurrent infections are *** the recent emergence of hypervirulent isolates of ***,CDI is a growing epidemic with higher rates of recurrence,increasing severity and *** microbiota transplantation(FMT)is an alternative treatment for recurrent CDI.A better understanding of intestinal microbiota and its role in CDI has opened the door to this promising therapeutic *** is thought to resolve dysbiosis by restoring gut microbiota diversity thereby breaking the cycle of recurrent *** the first reported use of FMT for recurrent CDI in 1958,systematic reviews of case series and case report have shown its effectiveness with high resolution rates compared to standard antibiotic *** article focuses on current guidelines for CDI treatment,the role of intestinal microbiota in CDI recurrence and current evidence about FMT efficacy,adverse effects and acceptability.

关键词： Clostridium difficile infection Clostridium difficile recurrence Fecal microbiota transplantation Stool transplantation Microbiota

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Recent advances in the management of autoimmune pancreatitis in the era of artificial intelligence

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2022年第48期28卷 6867-6874页

作者： Sahar Mack Yves Flattet philippe Bichard Jean louis Frossard Division of Gastroenterology Department of Medical SpecialtiesUniversity Hospital of GenevaGeneva 1205Switzerland

Autoimmune pancreatitis(AIP)is a type of immune-mediated pancreatitis subdivided into two subtypes,type 1 and type 2 ***,type 1 AIP is considered to be the pancreatic manifestation of the immunoglobulin G4(IgG4)-related ***,AIP is increasingly researched and recognized,although its diagnosis represents a challenge for several reasons:False positive ultrasound-guided cytological samples for a neoplastic process,difficult to interpret levels of IgG4,the absence of biological markers to diagnose type 2 AIP,and the challenging clinical identification of atypical ***,60%and 78%of type 1 and type 2 AIP,respectively,are retrospectively diagnosed on surgical specimens of resected pancreas for suspected *** distinguishing AIP from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma can be challenging,obtaining a definitive diagnosis can therefore prove difficult,since endoscopic ultrasound fine-needle aspiration or biopsy of the pancreas are *** paper focuses on recent innovations in the management of AIP with regard to the use of artificial intelligence,new serum markers,and new therapeutic approaches,while it also outlines the current management recommendations.A better knowledge of AIP can reduce the recourse to surgery and avoid its overuse,although such an approach requires close collaboration between gastroenterologists,surgeons and *** knowledge on AIP and IgG4-related disease remains necessary to diagnose and manage patients.

关键词： Autoimmune pancreatitis Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma Immunoglobulin G4-related disease Prednisone Rituximab Artificial intelligence Plasmablasts

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Endothelial nitric oxide synthase regulation is altered in pancreas from cirrhotic rats

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2006年第2期12卷 228-233页

作者： Jean-louis Frossard Rafael Quadri Antoine Hadengue philippe Morel Catherine M Pastor Division de Gastroenterologie Hpitaux Universitaires de Geneve Departement de Chirurgie Hopitaux Universitaires de Geneve Laboratoire de Physiopathologie Hepatique et Imagerie Moleculaire Hpitaux Universitaires de Geneve

AIM： To determine whether biliary cirrhosis could induce pancreatic dysfunction such as modifications in endothelial nitric oxide synthase（eNOS） expression and whether the regulation of eNOS could be altered by the regulatory proteins caveolin and heat shock protein 90 （Hsp90）, as well as by the modifications of calmodulin binding to eNOS. METHODS： Immunoprecipitations and Western blotting analysis were performed in pancreas isolated from sham and cirrhotic rats. RESULTS： Pancreatic injury was minor in cirrhotic rats but eNOS expression importantly decreased with the length （and the severity） of the disease. Because coimmunoprecipitation of eNOS with both Hsp90 and caveolin similarly decreased in cirrhotic rats, eNOS activity was not modified by this mechanism. In contrast, drrhosis decreased the calmodulin binding to eNOS with a concomitant decrease in eNOS activity. CONCLUSION： In biliary cirrhosis, pancreatic injury is minor but the pancreatic nitric oxide （NO） production is significantly decreased by two mechanisms： a decreased expression of the enzyme and a decreased binding of calmodulin to eNOS.

关键词： Pancreas Biliary cirrhosis Endothelial NO synthase Caveolin Heat shock protein 90

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Identification of biomarkers of human pancreatic adenocarcinomas by expression profiling and validation with gene expression analysis in endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration samples

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2006年第21期12卷 3344-3351页

作者： Henrik Laurell Michèle Bouisson philippe Berthelémy philippe Rochaix Sébastien Déjean philippe Besse Christiana Susini Lucien Pradayrol Nicole Vaysse louis Buscail INSERM U531 IFR31 Institut Louis BugnardBP 8422531432 Toulouse Cedex 4France Service de Gastroentérologie Centre Hospitaller de Pau PauFrance Laboratoire d'Anatomo-Pathologie Institut Claudius Regaud ToulouseFrance Laboratoire de Statistique et Probabilités Université Paul Sabatier ToulouseFrance INSERM U531 IFR31 Institut Louis BugnardBP 8422531432 Toulouse Cedex 4France Service de Gastroenterologie et de la NutritionCHU RangueilToulouseFrance

AIM： To compare gene expression profiles of pancreatic adenocarcinoma tissue specimens, human pancreatic and colon adenocarcinoma and leukemia cell lines and normal pancreas samples in order to distinguish differentially expressed genes and to validate the differential expression of a subset of genes by quantitative real-time RT-PCR （RT-QPCR） in endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration （EUS-guided FNA） ***： Commercially dedicated cancer cDNA macroarrays （Atlas Human Cancer 1.2） containing 1176 genes were used. Different statistical approaches （hierarchical clustering, principal component analysis （PCA） and SAM） were used to analyze the expression data. RT-QPCR and immunohistochemical studies were used for validation of ***： RT-QPCR validated the increased expression of LCN2 （lipocalin 2） and for the first time PLAT （tissue-type plasminogen activator or tPA） in malignant pancreas as compared with normal pancreas. Immunohistochemical analysis confirmed the increased expression of LCN2 protein localized in epithelial cells of ducts invaded by carcinoma. The analysis of PLAT and LCN2 transcripts in 12 samples obtained through EUS-guided FNA from patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma showed significantly increased expression levels in comparison with those found in normal tissues, indicating that a sufficient amount of high quality RNA can be obtained with this ***： Expression profiling is a useful method to identify biomarkers and potential target genes. Molecular analysis of EUS-guided FNA samples in pancreatic cancer appears as a valuable strategy for the diagnosis of pancreatic adenocarcinomas.

关键词： Pancreas Colon Adenocarcinoma Gene expression profiling Endoscopic ultrasonography Ultrasound Fine needle aspiration

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Neutrophil depletion-but not prevention of Kupffer cell activation-decreases the severity of cerulein-induced acute pancreatitis

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2006年第8期12卷 1219-1224页

作者： Catherine M Pastor Alain Vonlaufen Fabianna Georgi Antoine Hadengue philippe Morel Jean-louis Frossard Laboratoire de Physiopathologie Hépatique et Imagerie Moléculaire H■pitaux Universitaires de GenèveB■timent CRoom 6-79524 Rue Micheli-du-Crest1205 GenevaSwitzerland Division of Gastroentérologie et Hépatologie H■pitaux Universitaires de Genève24 Rue Micheli-du-Crest1205 GenevaSwitzerland Département APSI H■pitaux Universitaires de Genève24 Rue Micheli-du-Crest1205 GenevaSwitzerland Département de Chirurgie H■pitaux Universitaires de Genève24 Rue Micheli-du-Crest1205 GenevaSwitzerland

AIM： To determine whether neutrophil depletion and Kupffer cell inhibition might combine their protective effects to decrease the severity of acute pancreatitis. METHODS： Nice had cerulein administration to induce acute pancreatitis and were pretreated with either anti-mouse neutrophil serum or gadolinium chloride （GdCh） to prevent Kupffer cell activation, or both treatments. Injury was assessed in pancreas and lungs. Myeloperoxidases （MPO） assessed neutrophil infiltration. Interleukin-6 （IL-6） and IL-10 were measured in serum, pancreas, lungs and liver. RESULTS： In mice with acute pancreatitis, neutrophil depletion reduced the severity of pancreatitis and pancreatitis-associated lung injury. Kupffer cell inactivation by GdCh had less protective effect, although IL-6 and IL-10 concentrations were significantly decreased. The protective treatment brought by neutrophil depletion was not enhanced by Kupffer cell inactivation and both treatments did not combine their protective effects. CONCLUSION： Our results confirm the role of activated neutrophils in aggravating organ injury in acute pancreatitis while the role of Kupffer cell activation is less obvious.

关键词： Acute pancreatitis Cytokines Neutrophils Kupffer cells Pulmonary injury

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Determinants of invasive strategy in elderly patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction

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Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2017年第7期14卷 465-472页

作者： Antonin Negers Jacques Boddaert Lucie Mora Jean-louis Golmard Laura Moisi Ariel Cohen Jean-philippe Collet Alice Breining Acute Geriatric Care Unit Saint-Antoine University Hospital Paris France Department of Geriatrics Pitie-Salpetriere University Hospital Paris France Department of Biostatistics Pitie-Salpetriere University Hospital Paris France Department of Cardiology Saint-Antoine University Hospital Paris France Department of Cardiology Pitie-Salpetrere University Hospital Paris France Department of Geriatrics Charles Foix University Hospital Paris France

Background Knowledge gaps across literature prevent current guidelines from providing the profile of elderly patients most likely to derive benefit fi^om invasive strategy （IS） in non ST-elevation myocardial infarction （NSTEMI）. Furthermore, the benefit of IS in a real-world elderly population with NSTEMI remains unclear. The aims of this study were to determine factors that lead the cardiologist to opt for an IS in elderly patients with NSTEMI, and to assess the impact of IS on the 6-month all-cause mortality. Methods This multicenter prospective study enrolled all consecutive patients aged 〉 75 years old who presented a NSTEMI and were hospitalized in cardiology intensive care unit between February 2014 and February 2015. Patients were compared on the basis of reperfusion strategy （invasive or conservative） and living status at six months, in order to determine multivariate predictors of the realization of an IS and multivariate predictors of 6-month mor- tality. Results A total of 141 patients were included; 87 （62%） underwent an IS. The strongest independent determinants of IS were younger age [odds ratio （OR）： 0.85, 95%-confidence interval （CI）： 0.78-0.92; P 〈 0.001） and lower ＂Cumulative Illness Rating Scale-Geriatric＂ number of categories score （OR： 0.83, 95%CI： 0.73-0.95; P = 0.002）. IS was not significantly associated with 6-month survival （OR： 0.80, 95%CI： 0.27-2.38; P = 0.69）. Conclusions In real-world elderly patients with NSTEMI, younger patients with fewer comorbidities profited more often from an IS. However, IS did not modify 6-month all-cause mortality.

关键词： Comorbidity Coronary angiography Decision making Mortality Myocardial infarction

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Outcomes of nonresected main-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2015年第9期21卷 2658-2667页

作者： Mathieu Daudé Fabrice Muscari Camille Buscail Nicolas Carrère philippe Otal Janick Selves louis Buscail Barbara Bournet Department of Gastroenterology CHU Toulouse RangueilUniversity of Toulouse31059 ToulouseFrance Department of Digestive Surgery CHU Toulouse Rangueil and PurpanUniversity of Toulouse31059 ToulouseFrance Department of Public Health and Epidemiology CHU Rennes PontchaillouUniversity of Rennes35033 RennesFrance Department of Radiology CHU Toulouse RangueilUniversity of Toulouse31059 ToulouseFrance Department of Pathology CHU Toulouse PurpanUniversity of Toulouse31300 ToulouseFrance

AIM:To compare characteristics and outcomes of resected and nonresected main-duct and mixed intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas(IPMN).METHODS:Over a 14-year period,50 patients who did not undergo surgery for resectable main-duct or mixed IPMN,for reasons of precluding comorbidities,age and/or refusal,were compared with 74 patients who underwent resection to assess differences in rates of survival,recurrence/occurrence of malignancy,and prognostic *** study participants had dilatation of the main pancreatic duct by ≥ 5 mm,with or without dilatation of the branch *** of the nonsurgical patients showed evidence of mucus upon perendoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography or endoscopic ultrasound and/or after fine needle *** the surgical patients,pathologic analysis of resected specimens confirmed a diagnosis of IPMN with involvement of the main pancreatic duct or of both branch ducts as well as the main pancreatic *** and biologic follow-ups were conducted for all patients at least annually,through hospitalization or consultation every six months during the first year of follow-up,together with abdominal imaging analysis(magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography or computed tomography) and,if necessary,endoscopic ultrasound with or without fine needle ***:The overall five-year survival rate of patients who underwent resection was significantly greater than that for the nonsurgical patients(74% vs 58%; P =0.019).The parameters of age( 10 mm,branch ductdiameter > 30 mm,or presence of extra pancreatic cancers did not significantly influence the *** the nonsurgical patients,pancreatic malignancy occurred in 36% of cases within a mean time of 33 mo(median:29 mo; range:8-141 mo).Comparison of the nonsurgical patients who experienced disease progression

关键词： Main-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

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Soluble CD40 ligand in prediction of acute severe pancreatitis

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2006年第10期12卷 1613-1616页

作者： Jean louis Frossard philippe Morel Brenda Kwak Catherine Pastor Thierry Berney Léo Buhler Alain Von Laufen Sandrine Demulder Francois Mach Division of Gastroenterology Geneva University HospitalGenève Switzerland Clinic of Digestive Surgery Geneva University Hospital Genève Switzerland Division of Cardiology Geneva University Hospital Genève Switzerland

AIM： TO assess the early predictability of the soluble CD40L （sCD40L） in pancreatitis severity. METHODS： Between February 2000 and February 2003, 279 consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis were prospectively enrolled in our study. In this report, 40 patients with mild and 40 patients with severe pancreatitis were randomly studied, sCD40L concentrations were measured 48 hours after admission. RESULTS： sCD40L levels were significantly higher 48 hours after admission in severe pancreatitis than in mild pancreatitis. Using a cutoff of 1000 pg/L, the sensitivity and specificity of sCD40L to detect a severe course of the disease were 78% and 62% respectively compared to 72% and 81% for CRP. Logistic regression analysis found that CRP was the only statistically significant marker able to detect a severe course of the disease. CONCLUSION： These findings indicate that CRP remains a valuable marker to determine the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis whereas sCD40L levels should be assessed in further studies.

关键词： Acute pancreatitis Prognostic factor sCD40

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