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A New Statistical Modeling Approach for Survival Analysis of Cancer Patients—Multiple Myeloma Cancer

Open Journal of Applied Sciences 2021年第4期10卷 365-378页

作者： lohuwa mamudu Chris P. Tsokos Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of South Florida Tampa USA

Background: The Cox Proportional Hazard (Cox-PH) model has been a popularly used method for survival analysis of cancer data given the survival times as a function of covariates or risk factors. However, it is very seldom to see the assumptions for the application of the Cox-PH model satisfied in most of the research studies, raising questions about the effectiveness, robustness, and accuracy of the model predicting the proportion of survival times. This is because the necessary assumptions in most cases are difficult to satisfy, as well as the assessment of interaction among covariates. Methods: To further improve the therapeutic/treatment strategy for cancer diseases, we proposed a new approach to survival analysis using multiple myeloma (MM) cancer data. We first developed a data-driven nonlinear statistical model that predicts the survival times with 93% accuracy. We then performed a parametric analysis on the predicted survival times to obtain the survival function which is used in estimating the proportion of survival times. Results: The new proposed approach for survival analysis has proved to be more robust and gives better estimates of the proportion of survival than the Cox-PH model. Also, satisfying the proposed model assumptions and finding interactions among risk factors is less difficult compared to the Cox-PH model. The proposed model can predict the real values of the survival times and the identified risk factors are ranked according to the percent of contribution to the survival time. Conclusion: The new proposed nonlinear statistical model approach for survival analysis of cancer diseases is very efficient and provides an improved and innovative strategy for cancer therapeutic/treatment.

关键词： Health Science Multiple Myeloma Cancer Cancer Therapeutic Cox-PH Model Statistical Model Survival Analysis Probability Estimation

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Parametric and Non-Parametric Analysis of the Survival Times of Patients with Multiple Myeloma Cancer

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Open Journal of Applied Sciences 2020年第4期10卷 118-134页

作者： lohuwa mamudu Chris P. Tsokos Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of South Florida Tampa FL USA

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a type of cancer that remains incurable. In the last decade, most research into MM has focused on investigating the improvement in the therapeutic strategy. Our study assesses the survival probability of 48 patients diagnosed with MM based on parametric and non-parametric techniques. We performed parametric survival analysis and found a well-def- ined probability distribution of the survival time to follow three-parameter lognormal. We then estimated the survival probability and compared it with the commonly used non-parametric Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of the survival times. The comparison of the survival probability estimates of the two methods revealed a better survival probability estimate by the parametric method than the Kaplan-Meier. The parametric survival analysis is more robust and efficient because it is based on a well-defined parametric probabilistic distribution, hence preferred over the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier. This study offers therapeutic significance for further enhancement in the treatment strategy of multiple myeloma cancer.

关键词： Multiple Myeloma Cancer Three-Parameter Lognormal Kaplan-Meier Maximum Likelihood Estimation Health Science

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