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Measuring the Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Mortality:Review and Prospect--China,2021

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China CDC weekly 2022年第23期4卷 499-503页

作者： Jinlong Lin Guogui Huang Yue Wei lijun pei Institute of Population Research China Center on Population Health and DevelopmentPeking UniversityBeijingChina Macquarie Business School Macquarie UniversitySydneyAustralia

Current progress in measuring the effect of the pandemic on mortality is limited.Few studies have comprehensively and systematically elucidated the mechanism through which the pandemic affects mortality and what indicators are valid to capture such an effect.This paper presents a comprehensive analysis regarding the multifaceted effects of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)on mortality and its measurements[i.e.,confirmed deaths per million people(CDPMP),case fatality rate(CFR),infection fatality risk(IFR),excess mortality P-score(EMPS),and life expectancy(LE)].It was revealed that both data collection efforts and measurements on mortality due to COVID-19 were far from perfect and discussed the importance of accurate,prompt,and accessible data by any government over the course of fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic.It is believed that the biggest challenge in measuring the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality lies not in the construction of indicators at the academic level,but in the collection of data at the practical level.Thus,it is suggested to take measures to better monitor the development of the pandemic and mitigate the increasing burdens borne by the public health systems by improving the tracking system of mortality,standardizing the diagnosis of COVID-19’s deaths,and disclosing mortality data.

关键词： diagnosis prompt fighting

Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Drinking Water Type of Endemic Fluorosis—China,2009–2022

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China CDC weekly 2024年第2期6卷 25-29页

作者： lijun Zhao Zhe Li Mang Li Hongna Sun Wei Wei Lin Gao Qiaoshi Zhao Yang Liu Xiaohong Ji Cheng Li Jian Wang Yanhui Gao Junrui pei Center for Endemic Disease Control Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionHarbin Medical UniversityHarbin CityHeilongjiang ProvinceChina Key Lab of Etiology and Epidemiology Education Bureau of Heilongjiang Province(23618504)Ministry of Health of PRHarbin Medical UniversityHarbin CityHeilongjiang ProvinceChina

What is already known about this topic?Endemic fluorosis,caused by high fluoride levels in drinking water,has been a significant health issue in rural areas of China for many decades.What is added by this report?There has been a notable decline in the detection rate of dental fluorosis in children aged 8–12 years in drinking water fluorosis areas across the country from 2009 to 2022.While 14 provincial-level administrative divisions are classified as low-probability clusters,Tianjin remains classified as a high-probability cluster.What are the implications for public health practice?The current policy for preventing and controlling endemic fluorosis in China needs adjustment.Rather than focusing solely on regions with high incidence,there should be a shift towards monitoring and early warning of fluoride exposure.Additionally,local containment measures should be intensified.

关键词： intensified Spatial fluoride

Trends in the Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment Among Older Adults Aged 65 to 105 Years—China,2002–2018

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China CDC weekly 2022年第42期4卷 945-949页

作者： Xiaojin Yan Shiqi Lin Jiajia Li Hao Cheng Xiangguo Liu lijun pei Institute of Population Research Peking UniversityBeijingChina National Academy of Innovation Strategy China Association for Science and TechnologyBeijingChina

Introduction:This study aims to analyze trends and subgroup differences in the prevalence of cognitive impairment among older Chinese adults aged 65–105 years from 2002 to 2018.Methods:Data were drawn from six waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS).Cognitive function was measured using the Chinese version of the Mini-Mental State Examination(CMMSE).Cognitive impairment was determined by the total CMMSE score and educational attainment of participants.The generalized estimating equation(GEE)models with a logistic link and binominal distribution were performed to assess the secular trend in the prevalence.Results:The prevalence of cognitive impairment among older adults aged 65–105 years decreased from 3.44%[95%confidence interval(CI):3.15%–3.73%]in 2002 to 2.41%(95%CI:2.17%–2.65%)in 2018 in China.The prevalence was slightly higher in women than in men in 2002(3.71%vs.3.13%,P<0.05),and there was no significant difference between women and men in 2018(2.60%vs.2.21%,P=0.12).Rural older adults had a higher prevalence of cognitive impairment before 2014,but their urban counterparts had a higher prevalence in 2018(2.75%vs.2.06%,P<0.05).The GEE regression model showed that each successive year was associated with a 3%reduction in the odds of the prevalence of cognitive impairment[odds ratio(OR)=0.97;95%CI:0.97–0.97;P<0.05].Conclusions:The prevalence of cognitive impairment among Chinese older adults aged 65–105 years declined slowly from 2002 to 2018.The gender,urban-rural,age,and regional differences in the prevalence of cognitive impairment changed over time.

关键词： slowly nominal successive

中国农村中老年人睡眠时长对可能肌少症影响的队列研究

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中华疾病控制杂志 2024年第3期28卷 290-297页

作者：梁博魏玥裴丽君北京大学人口研究所北京100871

目的探讨中国农村中老年人(≥45岁)睡眠时长对可能肌少症发生风险的影响,以便降低可能肌少症的发生率。方法采用队列研究方法,通过测量握力和重复5次起坐时间判断是否患可能肌少症,以“中国健康与养老追踪调查”2011年和2013年收集到的7... 详细信息

目的探讨中国农村中老年人(≥45岁)睡眠时长对可能肌少症发生风险的影响,以便降低可能肌少症的发生率。方法采用队列研究方法,通过测量握力和重复5次起坐时间判断是否患可能肌少症,以“中国健康与养老追踪调查”2011年和2013年收集到的7075名未发生可能肌少症的中老年人作为基线数据,随访该队列人群至2015年,构建动态队列数据库,采用Cox比例风险模型研究农村中老年人的睡眠时长与其可能肌少症发生风险的关联。结果与睡眠时长为8~<9 h的农村中老年人相比,睡眠时长<6 h、6~<7 h、7~<8 h和≥9 h的中老年人可能肌少症的发生风险分别增加22%(HR=1.22,95%CI:1.07~1.39,P=0.003)、17%(HR=1.17,95%CI:1.01~1.35,P=0.037)、18%(HR=1.18,95%CI:1.02~1.35,P=0.022)和16%(HR=1.16,95%CI:1.02~1.33,P=0.028)。趋势检验结果显示,随着睡眠时间的缩短(<9 h)农村中老年人患可能肌少症的风险升高,存在剂量-反应关系(P<0.001);对于45~<60岁中年人,相较8~<9 h睡眠时长,睡眠时长<6 h、6~<7 h和7~<8 h的中年人可能肌少症的发生风险分别增加21%(HR=1.21,95%CI:1.01~1.46,P=0.041)、23%(HR=1.23,95%CI:1.02~1.48,P=0.033)和30%(HR=1.30,95%CI:1.08~1.56,P=0.005);与8~<9 h睡眠时长相比,女性中老年人睡眠时长<6 h发生可能肌少症的风险增加了27%(HR=1.27,95%CI:1.06~1.52,P=0.010),男性中老年人睡眠时长≥9 h发生可能肌少症的风险增加了21%(HR=1.21,95%CI:1.01~1.46,P=0.045)。结论中国农村中老年人的睡眠时间过短和过长均会增加可能肌少症的发生风险,并且存在年龄差异,优化睡眠时长可以预防肌少症的发生发展。

关键词：可能肌少症睡眠时长队列研究中老年人农村

Trends of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in a High Prevalence Region of Birth Defects——Shanxi Province,China,2007-2019

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China CDC weekly 2021年第31期3卷 661-664页

作者： Shiqi Lin Yuan Zhang Jiajia Li Jilei Wu lijun pei Institute of Population Research/China Center on Population Health and Development Peking UniversityBeijingChina National Research Institute for Health and Family Planning BeijingChina

Summary What is already known about this topic?Shanxi Province in northern China has been identified as a region with the highest prevalence of birth defects nationwide.With large amounts of financial support devoted for prevention and related interventions for birth defects,huge progress has been made as a 60% decrease in its prevalence was observed from 2009 to 2014.

关键词： nationwide devoted prevention

Sufficient conditions of the various stabilities of the linear time-varying delayed differential equations

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Theoretical & Applied Mechanics Letters 2013年第6期3卷 59-61页

作者： lijun pei School of Mathematics and Statistics Zhengzhou University

Due to the appearance and the study of the ornithopter and flexible-wing micro air vehicles, etc., the time-varying systems become more and more important and ubiquitous in the study of the mechanics. In this letter, the sufficient conditions of the uniform asymptotic stability are first presented for the delayed time-varying linear differential equations with any time delay by employing the Dini derivative, Lozinskii measure and the generalized scalar Halanay delayed differential inequality. They are especially based on the estimation of the arbitrary solutions but not the fundamental solution matrix since their solutions＇ space is infinite-dimensional. Then some sufficient conditions of the stability, asymptotic stability and uniform asymptotic stability of the delayed time-varying linear system with a sufficiently small time delay are reported by employing Taylor expansion and Dini derivative. It implies that these stabilities can be guaranteed by the Lozinskii measure of the matrix composing of the time delay and the coefficient matrices of the system.

关键词： sufficient conditions stability uniform asymptotic stability time delay time-varying linearsystem

中国中老年人群甘油三酯葡萄糖指数-腰围身高比与认知障碍关联的队列研究

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中华流行病学杂志 2024年第6期45卷 802-808页

作者：侯丁淳魏玥孙玉梅裴丽君陈功北京大学人口研究所北京100871 北京大学护理学院北京100191 北京大学中国老龄事业发展研究中心北京100871

目的分析中老年人中甘油三酯葡萄糖指数(TyG)-腰围身高比(WHtR)(TyG-WHtR)与认知障碍的关联。方法应用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,以2011年和2015年的8946名中老年人为基线人群,构建队列数据库。应用Cox比例风险回归模型估计中老年人基... 详细信息

目的分析中老年人中甘油三酯葡萄糖指数(TyG)-腰围身高比(WHtR)(TyG-WHtR)与认知障碍的关联。方法应用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,以2011年和2015年的8946名中老年人为基线人群,构建队列数据库。应用Cox比例风险回归模型估计中老年人基线TyG-WHtR不同水平与认知障碍风险的关联,并分别进行年龄和性别分层分析。结果8946名研究对象平均随访7.08人年,认知障碍发病密度为21.15/1000人年。与TyG-WHtR的Q1水平相比,其Q3和Q4水平分别使认知障碍风险增加32%(HR=1.32,95%CI:1.09~1.60)和47%(HR=1.47,95%CI:1.14~1.91)。趋势检验显示,认知障碍风险随TyG-WHtR水平升高而增加,且存在剂量-反应关系(P=0.001)。分层分析显示,45~59岁人群中,与TyG-WHtR的Q1水平相比,其Q3水平使认知障碍风险增加34%(HR=1.34,95%CI:1.02~1.78);≥60岁人群中,相比于TyG-WHtR的Q1水平,其Q3和Q4水平分别使认知障碍风险增加31%(HR=1.31,95%CI:1.01~1.72)和63%(HR=1.63,95%CI:1.15~2.31);男性中,TyG-WHtR水平与认知障碍风险无统计学关联(P>0.05);女性中,相比于TyG-WHtR的Q1水平,其Q4水平使认知障碍风险增加76%(HR=1.76,95%CI:1.26~2.46)。结论中老年人中较高的TyG-WHtR水平可增加认知障碍风险,且存在年龄、性别差异,早期的心血管健康管理和科学合理的体重管理对预防认知障碍具有重要意义。

关键词：认知障碍甘油三酯葡萄糖指数-腰围身高比队列研究中老年人

Incidence of Macrosomia in Rural Areas—Henan Province,China,2013–2017

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China CDC weekly 2021年第37期3卷 788-792页

作者： Shiqi Lin Jian Chai Jiajia Li Xuejun Shang lijun pei Lifang Jiang Junxi Zhang Panpan Sun Wei Dong Yuhong Wang Dezhuan Zhou Institute of Population Research/China Center on Population Health and Development Peking UniversityBeijingChina National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Birth Defects Prevention Henan Key Laboratory of Population Defects PreventionZhengzhouHenanChina Department of Andrology Jinling HospitalSchool of MedicineNanjing UniversityNanjingJiangsuChina.

Introduction:Macrosomia has short-term and long-term adverse health effects and is thus an important public health concern.Recent decades have witnessed increasing incidence of macrosomia in many countries.Methods:The present study used a large population-based birth cohort study to depict incidence of macrosomia among live births in rural areas of Henan Province of China from 2013 to 2017.Results:Among the 1,262,916 births,82,353 were cases of macrosomia.The overall incidence of all types of macrosomia,of macrosomia with birth weight<4,500 g,and of macrosomia with birth weight≥4,500 g were 6.52%,5.30%,and 1.22%,respectively.From 2013 to 2017,the incidence of macrosomia decreased by 31.3%from 7.96%in 2013 to 5.47%in 2017(X^(2)_(trend)=946.96,P_(trend)<0.001).Male infants and infants≥42 gestational weeks had significantly higher incidence of macrosomia than that of female infants and infants<42 gestational weeks(P<0.001).Conclusion:Gestational weight control through nutrition management and physical activities during pregnancy are needed to reduce incidence of macrosomia.

关键词： Rural birth Henan

水稻生长季CO_(2)通量的时间动态和影响因子研究

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环境科学与技术 2024年第3期47卷 27-36页

作者：张丽君胡凝刘珊珊徐敏王伟邰久葛培南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心中国气象局生态系统碳源汇重点开放实验室江苏省农业气象重点实验室江苏南京210044 江苏省气候中心江苏南京210019 衡水市气象局河北衡水053000

为了明确长三角地区稻麦轮作生态系统中水稻生长季CO_(2)通量的多时间尺度变化特征,量化环境因子对农田CO_(2)通量变化的贡献度,拆分环境因子的直接影响和间接影响,该研究利用涡度相关观测系统进行了2年CO_(2)通量的连续观测,分析了辐... 详细信息

为了明确长三角地区稻麦轮作生态系统中水稻生长季CO_(2)通量的多时间尺度变化特征,量化环境因子对农田CO_(2)通量变化的贡献度,拆分环境因子的直接影响和间接影响,该研究利用涡度相关观测系统进行了2年CO_(2)通量的连续观测,分析了辐射类、温度类、水汽类和风速对CO_(2)通量的影响。结果表明:稻麦轮作生态系统在水稻生长季是一个二氧化碳汇,2020、2021年水稻生长季的总固碳量分别为396.3、491.9 g/m^(2)(以C计);CO_(2)通量也有明显的日变化,呈现出“U形”和“V型”的单峰曲线,吸收峰值出现在第200~250天。在不同时间尺度上,影响CO_(2)通量的主控因子始终是光合有效辐射;但随时间尺度的增加,各个因子贡献度的差异逐渐减小。饱和水汽压差也是影响CO_(2)通量的重要因子,它与光合有效辐射的交互作用会抑制彼此对CO_(2)通量的直接贡献。

关键词：稻麦轮作生态系统 CO_(2)通量贡献度交互作用涡度相关