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Impact of the Monsoonal Surge on Extreme Rainfall of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第5期38卷 771-784页

作者： Dajun ZHAO Yubin YU lianshou chen State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

A comparative analysis and quantitative diagnosis has been conducted of extreme rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones(ERLTC)and non-extreme rainfall(NERLTC)using the dynamic composite analysis method.Reanalysis data and the tropical cyclone precipitation dataset derived from the objective synoptic analysis technique were used.Results show that the vertically integrated water vapor transport(Q_(vt))during the ERLTC is significantly higher than that during the NERLTC.The Q_(vt)reaches a peak 1−2 days before the occurrence of the ERLTC and then decreases rapidly.There is a stronger convergence for both the Q_(vt)and the horizontal wind field during the ERLTC.The Q_(vt)convergence and the wind field convergence are mainly confined to the lower troposphere.The water vapor budget on the four boundaries of the tropical cyclone indicates that water vapor is input through all four boundaries before the occurrence of the ERLTC,whereas water vapor is output continuously from the northern boundary before the occurrence of the NERLTC.The water vapor inflow on both the western and southern boundaries of the ERLTC exceeds that during the NERLTC,mainly as a result of the different intensities of the southwest monsoonal surge in the surrounding environmental field.Within the background of the East Asian summer monsoon,the low-level jet accompanying the southwest monsoonal surge can increase the inflow of water vapor at both the western and southern boundaries during the ERLTC and therefore could enhance the convergence of the horizontal wind field and the water vapor flux,thereby resulting in the ERLTC.On the other hand,the southwest monsoonal surge decreases the zonal mean steering flow,which leads to a slower translation speed for the tropical cyclone associated with the ERLTC.Furthermore,a dynamic monsoon surge index(DMSI)defined here can be simply linked with the ERLTC and could be used as a new predictor for future operational forecasting of ERLTC.

关键词： landfalling tropical cyclones extreme rainfall monsoon surge dynamic composite analysis

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Impact assessment of landfalling tropical cyclones:introduction to the special issue

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2019年第4期13卷 669-671页

作者： Hui YU lianshou chen Shanghai Typhoon Institute China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China

1 Introduction Tropical cyclones(TCs)are one of the most destructive natural phenomena in the world.The accompanied damaging winds,heavy precipitation,and storm surges have caused great economic losses and life casualties to human beings.There are eight disaster events related to TC among the top tenwhich caused the highest amount of insurance losses in the world.

关键词： cyclones disaster tropical

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Characteristics of Near Surface Winds over Different Underlying Surfaces in China: Implications for Wind Power Development

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2019年第2期33卷 349-362页

作者： Xi GONG Rong ZHU lianshou chen Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration

Accurate wind and turbulence information are essential to wind energy research and utilization, among which wind shear and turbulence intensity/scale have seldom been investigated. In this paper, the observational data from the100-m high wind towers in Xilinhot in Inner Mongolia(2009–10; grassland region), Huanghua in Hebei Province(2009–10; coastal flat region), and Xingzi County in Jiangxi Province(2010–11; mountain–lake region) are used to study the variations in near surface winds and turbulence characteristics related to the development of local wind energy over different underlying surfaces. The results indicate that(1) the percentage of the observed wind shear exponents exceeding 0.3 for the grassland region is 6%, while the percentage is 13% for the coastal flat region and 10%for the mountain–lake region. In other words, if the wind speed at 10 m is 10 ms^(–1), the percentage of the wind speed at 100 m exceeding 20 ms^(–1) for the grassland region is 6%, while the percentage is 13% for the coastal flat region and 10% for the mountain–lake region.(2) In terms of the turbulent intensity in the zonal, meridional, and vertical directions(I_u, I_v, and I_w, respectively), the frequencies of I_v/I_u < 0.8 in the grassland, coastal flat, and mountain–lake regions are 23%–29%, 32%–38%, and 30%–37%, respectively. Additionally, the frequencies of I_w/I_u < 0.5 in the grassland, coastal flat, and mountain–lake regions are 45%–75%, 52%–70%, and 43%–53%, respectively. The frequencies of I_v/I_u < 0.8 and Iw/I_u < 0.5 in each region mean that I_u is large and the air flow is unstable and fluctuating,which will damage the wind turbines. Therefore, these conditions do not meet the wind turbine design requirements,which must be considered separately.(3) At 50-and 70-m heights, the value of the turbulence scale parameter Λ in the grassland region is greater than that in the coastal flat region, and the latter is greater than that in the mountain–lake region. Therefore, under the same conditions, some parameters, e.g., the

关键词： wind energy underlying surface wind shear exponent turbulence turbulent intensity

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Science and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall

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Science Bulletin 2019年第21期64卷 1557-1561页

作者： Yali Luo Liye Li Richard HJohnson Chih-Pei Chang lianshou chen Wai-Kin Wong Jing chen Kalli Furtado John LMcBride Ajit Tyagi Nanette Lomarda Thierry Lefort Esperanza O.Cayanan State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China HIWeather International Coordination Office Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Colorado State University Fort CollinsCO 80523USA Naval Postgraduate School MontereyCA 93943USA Hong Kong Observatory.Hong Kong 999077 China Numerical Prediction Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Met Office ExeterDevon EXI 3PBUK Bureau of Meteorology MelbourneVictoria 3001Australia India Meteorological Department Noida 201303India World Weather Research Division World Meteorological OrganizationGeneva 1211Switzerland Meteo-France Toulouse 31000France Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Quezon City 1100Philippines

With the increasing incidence of heavy rainfall events,particularly over the monsoon regions,the highly dense populations are more vulnerable[1].Research initiatives on observation,modeling,and prediction of monsoon heavy rainfall have been promoted actively by World Weather Research Programme's(WWRP)Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research(WGTMR)of the World Meteorological Organization(WMO)since 2010.Series of monsoon-heavy-rainfall workshops were held in Beijing(2011),Petaling Jaya(2012),and New Delhi(2015)to benefit scientists worldwide and forecasters from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.An international Research and Development Project,namely,the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment(SCMREX)[2]was established in 2013 to coordinate field campaign experiments and to conduct scientific research on presummer(April-June)heavy rainfall processes in southern China.

关键词： China. rainfall monsoon

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ADVANCES IN UNDERSTANDING AND FORECASTING RAPIDLY CHANGING PHENOMENA IN TROPICAL CYCLONES

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2013年第1期2卷 13-24页

作者： RUSSELL L.ELSBERRy lianshou chen JIM DAVIDSON ROBERT ROGERS YUQING WANG LIGUANG WU Naval Postgraduate School MontereyCalifornia USA China Academy of Meteorological Sciences BeijingChina Bureau of Meteorology BrisbaneAustralia Hurricane Research Division MiamiFlorida USA International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology University of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHawaii USA Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology NanjingChina

This review of new understanding and forecasting of tropical cyclones(TCs) is based on presentations at the International Top-level Forum on Rapid Change Phenomena in Tropical Cyclones in Haikou, China. The major topics are the sudden changes in tracks, rapid changes in structure and intensity, rapid changes in rainfall, and advances in forecasting and forecaster requirements. Although improved track forecast guidance has been achieved with the Australian ACCESS-TC model and in track forecasts to 120 h by the China Meteorological Administration, there is a continuing need for better understanding and improved track forecast guidance. Advances in understanding of processes related to rapid intensification(RI), secondary eyewall formation, mechanisms controlling inner-core structure and size changes, and structure and intensity changes at landfall have been achieved, but progress in prediction of rapid changes in structure and intensity has been slow. Taking into account complex interactions involved in TC-related rainfall, a prioritized list of physical processes that govern rainfall from landfalling TCs in China has been developed. While forecaster participants were generally encouraged by the progress being made, they expressed a strong desire for a transition of that new knowledge to timely and reliable forecast guidance products.

关键词： review tropical cyclones International Top-level Forum

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A Monte Carlo study on the production scale and internal structure of jets in high energy collisions

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2008年第24期53卷 3808-3815页

作者： chen Gang YU MeiLing LIU lianshou Department of Physics School of Mathematics and Physics China University of Geosciences Wuhan 430074 China Department of Physics Wuhan University Wuhan 430072 China Institute of Particle Physics Huazhong Normal University Wuhan 430079 China

The production scale and internal structure of jets produced in high energy collisions were studied using Jetset and Herwig Monte Carlo generators. Two scales were found. One is the jet-development scale, which determines the size of the jet developed from a mother-parton. The other is the jet-production scale with which the jets produced are the most consistent with QCD jet-production dynamics and will provide the most reliable dynamical information about their mother-partons.

关键词：高能碰撞喷气技术射流范围物理研究

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Study on wavy distribution of rainfall associated with typhoon Matsa (2005)

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2007年第7期52卷 972-983页

作者： LI Ying WANG JiZhi chen lianshou YANG YuanQin State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Center for Atmosphere Watch and Services Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China

An analysis is made to investigate the structure features of the extensive heavy rainfall left by typhoon Matsa, after its landfall in China's Mainland in August 2005, based on a range of observational results, including surface intensive observation data, TBB data from China's FY-2 satellite, and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data. The study tries to explore the interaction between atmospheric waves, 3-D atmospheric structures, and typhoon rainbands. Observational facts, diagnostic analysis, and atmospheric wave theory are used to look into the formation mechanism of distant typhoon rainbands. Results show that (1) Matsa rainbands have the features of noticeable wave train distribution and long distance propaga-tion; (2) the typhoon rainbands extend as far as 2000 km northwardly from the typhoon center, with a wavelength of 500―1000 km and a wave period of 12―24 h; (3) the wave structure of Matsa rainbands is closely associated with the corresponding wave variation of the ambient 3-D atmospheric structures, including disturbance vorticity, divergence field, vertical motion field, water vapor flux divergence field, etc. (4) both observational facts and theoretical analysis show that the northward extending typhoon rainbands are associated with the mixed effects of atmospheric inertia wave and internal gravity wave; (5) only under proper atmospheric stratification and vertical wavenumber of gravity wave, can a ty-phoon stimulate such a wave being able to reach such a distance, and result in extending wavy rain-bands.

关键词： 2005年麦莎台风降水波状起伏分布

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An Overview of Research and Forecasting on Rainfall Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2010年第5期27卷 967-976页

作者：陈联寿李英程正泉 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory

The ability to forecast heavy rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones （LTCs） can be improved with a better understanding of the mechanism of rainfall rates and distributions of LTCs. Research in the area of LTCs has shown that associated heavy rainfall is related closely to mechanisms such as moisture transport, extratropical transition （ET）, interaction with monsoon surge, land surface processes or topographic effects, mesoscale convective system activities within the LTC, and boundary layer energy transfer etc.. LTCs interacting with environmental weather systems, especially the westerly trough and mei-yu front, could change the rainfall rate and distribution associated with these mid-latitude weather systems. Recently improved technologies have contributed to advancements within the areas of quantitative precipitation estimation （QPE） and quantitative precipitation forecasting （QPF）. More specifically, progress has been due primarily to remote sensing observations and mesoscale numerical models which incorporate advanced assimilation techniques. Such progress may provide the tools necessary to improve rainfall forecasting techniques associated with LTCs in the future.

关键词： landfalling tropical cyclones heavy rainfall research and forecasting

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热带气象灾害及其研究进展

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气象 2010年第7期36卷 101-110页

作者：陈联寿中国气象科学研究院北京100081

地球上的热带(Tropics)地区位于赤道两侧低纬度的环球带内,该区域海洋占有远大于陆地的面积,海洋向大气输送大量能量,海、陆、气相互作用制造出很强的天气系统。例如季风(Monsoon)和台风、飓风、气旋性风暴等旋转风速很强的大气涡旋,统... 详细信息

地球上的热带(Tropics)地区位于赤道两侧低纬度的环球带内,该区域海洋占有远大于陆地的面积,海洋向大气输送大量能量,海、陆、气相互作用制造出很强的天气系统。例如季风(Monsoon)和台风、飓风、气旋性风暴等旋转风速很强的大气涡旋,统称为热带气旋(Tropical Cyclones)。热带地区的急性(Acute)灾害性天气主要就是热带气旋和季风。热带地区的另一种严重灾害是干旱(Drought)和沙漠化(Desertification),它会引起粮食减产和饥荒,但这是慢性(Chronic)灾害。热带灾害性天气系统一般发源于热带而灾害不限于热带。当灾害系统移到中高纬度,灾害便会延伸到温带甚至寒带。有的灾害性天气系统发源于寒带,南侵成灾,也会受到热带气象领域的关注和研究,例如冬季风(Winter Boreal Monsoon)爆发和灾害。本文介绍了近年来发生的重大热带气象灾害事件以及热带气象领域发现的一些新事实,这些奇异现象很受关注。同时还介绍了国际热带气象研究的前沿科学问题及其进展以及近8年来国际热带气象领域所开展的外场科学试验、科学目标以及学术交流。

关键词：热带气象灾害科学研究

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热带气旋研究和业务预报技术的发展

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应用气象学报 2006年第6期17卷 672-681页

作者：陈联寿中国气象科学研究院北京100081

过去半个世纪,我国对热带气旋作了深入和系统的研究。研究内容涉及热带气旋的运动机理和路径预报方法、发生发展及结构和强度变化、登陆和变性过程、登陆后的衰减和维持机制及其引起的暴雨分布等。在此院庆之际,该文主要对中国气象科学... 详细信息

过去半个世纪,我国对热带气旋作了深入和系统的研究。研究内容涉及热带气旋的运动机理和路径预报方法、发生发展及结构和强度变化、登陆和变性过程、登陆后的衰减和维持机制及其引起的暴雨分布等。在此院庆之际,该文主要对中国气象科学研究院在热带气旋领域的研究作一回顾,与此发生关联的国内其他单位的工作也可能提及,但决非全面总结。采用的研究方法包括数理统计、天气动力机理分析、数值模式发展和模拟研究、物理诊断分析及外场科学试验等,这些研究方法和取得的成果在不同时期对推动国内热带气旋研究起了积极的作用。上述研究工作的另一个特点是与实际紧密结合,研究成果在实际台风预报业务中应用并不断改进,研究成果不断转化为业务能力,对改进预报技术、提高业务预报能力作出了重要贡献。

关键词：热带气旋研究和预报外场试验

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