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A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

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Journal of Arid Land 2024年第2期16卷 195-219页

作者： liU Xinyu li Xuemei ZHANG Zhengrong ZHAO Kaixin li Lanhai Faculty of Geomatics Lanzhou Jiaotong UniversityLanzhou 730070China National-Local Joint Engineering research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring Lanzhou 730070China Gansu Provincial Engineering Laboratory for National Geographic State Monitoring Lanzhou 730070China State Key Laboratory of desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China

Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human *** and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and *** Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate *** this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional *** on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during *** further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3.7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 *** MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in *** GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the *** and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the *** the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet ***,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbal

关键词： climate change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) global climate models(GCMs) shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios standardized precipitation index(SPI) Chinese Tianshan Mountains

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葡萄组织培养回顾与展望

干旱区研究 1989年第2期6卷 35-43页

作者：李宇光中国科学院新疆生物土壤沙漠所

葡萄是一种历史悠久、种植广泛、品种繁多的园艺果树,又是一种用途极广、价值很高的经济作物,堪称果树之王,葡萄生产在世界果树生产中占有举足轻重的地位。植物组织培养这一种神奇的生物技术手段与葡萄常规育种的有机结合,是实现综合育... 详细信息

葡萄是一种历史悠久、种植广泛、品种繁多的园艺果树,又是一种用途极广、价值很高的经济作物,堪称果树之王,葡萄生产在世界果树生产中占有举足轻重的地位。植物组织培养这一种神奇的生物技术手段与葡萄常规育种的有机结合,是实现综合育种目标所必需,它将进一步推动全球的葡萄生产,从而使葡萄这一古老的植物进一步造福于全人类。

关键词：葡萄组织培养繁殖

草原补奖政策下牧户绿色生产意愿与行为悖离研究——以新疆昭苏县为例

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中国农机化学报 2024年第4期45卷 311-320页

作者：李淑敏苏向辉马瑛林文姬赵和萍新疆农业大学公共管理学院乌鲁木齐市830052 新疆农业大学亚心校区管理委员会乌鲁木齐市830052 新疆理工学院新疆阿克苏843000

畜牧业是关系国计民生的重要支柱产业,促进畜牧业绿色发展是今后农牧业供给侧结构性改革、农牧业高质量发展、乡村振兴战略的着力点与主攻方向。在新一轮草原补奖政策实施背景下,基于新疆昭苏县277个牧户调查数据,运用Logistic-ISM模型... 详细信息

畜牧业是关系国计民生的重要支柱产业,促进畜牧业绿色发展是今后农牧业供给侧结构性改革、农牧业高质量发展、乡村振兴战略的着力点与主攻方向。在新一轮草原补奖政策实施背景下,基于新疆昭苏县277个牧户调查数据,运用Logistic-ISM模型探索影响牧户绿色生产意愿与行为悖离的显著性因素及其层次结构。结果表明:57%的样本牧户绿色生产意愿与行为发生悖离;性别、受教育程度、草场规模、牧业收入、草原补奖政策认知、经济效益认知、技术可获得性、补贴发放及时度及牧业生态基础设施等因素对牧户绿色生产意愿与行为悖离存在显著影响;进一步剖析影响因素间层级结构后发现,性别、受教育程度、草场规模和补贴发放及时度是深层根源因素,牧业收入、技术可获得性是中层间接因素,而草原补奖政策认知、经济效益认知及牧业生态基础设施是表层直接因素。据此提出加强政策宣传与扶持力度;增强牧户绿色生产意识,激发牧户绿色生产的内生动力;强化绿色科技支撑,提供专业技术指导;完善牧业配套设施,改善外源约束性条件等建议,以期促使牧户绿色生产意愿转换为实际行为,实现绿色兴牧、畜牧业绿色高质量发展的目标。

关键词：农业绿色生产意愿与行为悖离牧户草原补奖政策

Distribution assessment of soil erosion with revised RUSLE model in Tianshan Mountains

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第3期21卷 850-866页

作者： WEI wenyu liU Ya ZHANG lixia li Lanhai State Key Laboratory of desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Reaserch Center of Educational in xinjiang Xinjiang Normal UniversityUrumqi 830017China

aSoil degradation caused by soil erosion is one of the world's most critical environmental *** erosion in the Tianshan Mountains has caused various environmental problems in the surrounding *** study used remote sensing data to analyze the distribution of the factors influencing soil erosion,and the revised universal soil loss equation(RUSLE)to calculate the total amount and distribution characteristics of soil erosion in the Tianshan Mountains in *** to the large error of RUSLE in soil erosion estimation in mountainous areas,this study modified RUSLE equation based on the characteristics of snow cover in the Tianshan *** results show that the average soil erosion was 1690.3.t/(km^(2)·year),of which insignificant erosion,slight erosion and moderate erosion accounted for 42,8%,22.4%and 9.9%,*** erosion and above accounted for 13.3..The accuracy of the soil erosion modulus calculated by the RUSLE was only 61.9%,with an average error of 163..9 t/(km^(2)·year).The average error of the double-coefficient correction method was 1259.1 t/(km^(2)·year),and the average error of the modified formula method was reduced by 40.3.compared with the RUSLE,reaching 973.7 t/(km^(2)·year),and its accuracy reached 76.2%.Very severe erosion and catastrophic erosion are distributed on mountain ridges with higher elevation and on the northern area with higher *** cover has a certain inhibitory effect on soil erosion,and snow cover in alpine mountains is a factor that cannot be ignored in soil erosion research.

关键词： RUSLE Snow cover Erosion categories High-elevation area

Snowpack variations and their hazardous effects under climate warming in the central Tianshan Mountains

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Advances in Climate Change research 2024年第3期15卷 442-451页

作者： Jian-Sheng HAO Yan WANG Lan-Hai li Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101China xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone Urumqi 830011China State Key Laboratory of desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Tianshan Snowcover and Avalanche Observation and research Station of xinjiang Xinyuan 835800China CAS research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Urumqi 830011China

Climate change alters snowpack evolution,which in turn influences the likelihood of snow avalanches and flood *** lack of systemic observational data on key snow characteristics in high mountains remains a scientific challenge in terms of systematically elucidating the dynamic chain of variations in climate-snowpack-snow *** restricts our understanding and poses challenges in the prediction of snow-related disaster *** such,this study analysed the variations of temperature and snowfall and the physical characteristics of snowpacks based on ground-based observations from the Kunse River Valley situated in the Tianshan Mountains from 1967 to *** results reveal that the temperature increased significantly by 0.3.°C per decade(plier ***,average and maximum snow depths increased along with an increase in peak snow water equivalent,thus indicating a higher frequency of extremely scarce or abundant snow *** low snowpack temperature gradient and earlier snowmelt dates in spring lead to earlier occurrences of snowmelt floods and wet *** the risks of these events increase,they pose greater threats to farmlands,road transportation,water-electricity infrastructure and several other human ***,these insights are critical for providing vital information that can deepen our understanding of the impact of climate change on snowpack characteristics and improve management strategies for snow-related disaster prevention and mitigation.

关键词： Climate change Snowpack variations Snow-related disaster Tianshan Mountains

Differential response of radial growth and δ^(13.C in Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia) to climate change on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China

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Journal of Forestry research 2024年第3期35卷 205-218页

作者： li Qin Huaming Shang Weiping liu Yuting Fan Kexiang liu Tongwen Zhang Ruibo Zhang Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical research(CMA)/xinjiang Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Ecology Institute of Desert MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationUrimqi 830002People's Republicof China xinjiang Meteorological Information Center Urimqi 830002People's Republic of China

Tree radial growth can have significantly differ-ent responses to climate change depending on the *** elucidate the effects of climate on radial growth and stable carbon isotope(δ^(13.C)fractionation of Qing-hai spruce(Picea crassifolia),a widely distributed native conifer in northwestern China in different environments,we developed chronologies for tree-ring widths and δ^(13.C in trees on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains,and analysed the relationship between these tree-ring variables and major climatic ***-ring widths were strongly influenced by climatic factors early in the growing season,and the radial growth in trees on the northern slopes was more sensitive to climate than in trees on the ***-ring δ^(13.C was more sensitive to climate than radial growth.δ^(13.C fractionation was mainly influenced by summer temperature and precipitation early in the growing *** conductance more strongly limited stable carbon isotope fractionation in tree rings than photosynthetic rate *** response between tree rings and climate in mountains gradually weakened as climate *** in radial growth and stable carbon isotope fractionation of *** in response to climate in the Qilian Mountains may be further complicated by continued climate change.

关键词： Tree rings Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia Kom.) Stable carbon isotope(δ^(13.C) Qilian Mountains:Climate change

Assessment of Crop Yield in China Simulated by Thirteen Global Gridded Crop Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 420-434页

作者： Dezhen YIN Fang li Yaqiong LU Xiaodong ZENG Zhongda liN Yanqing ZHOU International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China

Global gridded crop models(GGCMs) have been broadly applied to assess the impacts of climate and environmental change and adaptation on agricultural production. China is a major grain producing country, but thus far only a few studies have assessed the performance of GGCMs in China, and these studies mainly focused on the average and interannual variability of national and regional yields. Here, a systematic national-and provincial-scale evaluation of the simulations by13.GGCMs [12 from the GGCM Intercomparison(GGCMI) project, phase 1, and CLM5-crop] of the yields of four crops(wheat, maize, rice, and soybean) in China during 1980–2009 was carried out through comparison with crop yield statistics collected from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Results showed that GGCMI models generally underestimate the national yield of rice but overestimate it for the other three crops, while CLM5-crop can reproduce the national yields of wheat, maize, and rice well. Most GGCMs struggle to simulate the spatial patterns of crop yields. In terms of temporal variability, GGCMI models generally fail to capture the observed significant increases, but some can skillfully simulate the interannual variability. Conversely, CLM5-crop can represent the increases in wheat, maize, and rice, but works less well in simulating the interannual variability. At least one model can skillfully reproduce the temporal variability of yields in the top-10 producing provinces in China, albeit with a few exceptions. This study, for the first time, provides a complete picture of GGCM performance in China, which is important for GGCM development and understanding the reliability and uncertainty of national-and provincial-scale crop yield prediction in China.

关键词： global gridded crop model historical crop yield China multi-model evaluation

Evaluating soil acidification risk and its effects on biodiversity–ecosystem multifunctionality relationships in the drylands of China

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Forest Ecosystems 2024年第2期11卷 162-171页

作者： Lan Du Shengchuan Tian Nan Zhao Bin Zhang Xiaohan Mu lisong Tang Xinjun Zheng Yan li State Key Laboratory of desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi830011XinjiangChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China Fukang Station of desert Ecology Chinese Academy of SciencesFukang831505XinjiangChina State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture Zhejiang A and F UniversityHangzhou311300ZhejiangChina

Background:Soil acidifcationn caused by anthropogenic activities may aft soil biochemical cydling,bidiversity,productivity,and multiple eosystem-related functions in ***,to date,such information is lacking to support this *** Based on a transect survey of 78 naturally assembled shrub communities,we caloulated acid deposition flux in Northwest China and evaluated its likely ecological ffets by testing three altemnative hypotheses,namely:.nidche complementarity,mass ratio,and vegetation quantity hypotheses Rao's quadratic entopy and community-weighted mean traits were employed to represent the complementary aspect of niche complementarity and mass ratio effects,***:We observed that in the past four decades,the concentrations of exchangeable base cations in soil in Northwest China have decreased significantly to the extent of having faced the risk of depletion,whereas changes in the calium carbonate content and pH of soil were not *** deposition primani ly increased the aboweground biomass and shrub density in shrublands but had no sigmificant effect on shrub richness and ecasystem multifunctionality(EMF),indicating that acid deposition had positive but weak ecological effects on dryland *** wd ghted mean of functional traits(representing the mass ratio hypothesis)correlated negatively with EMF,whereas both Rao's quadratic entropy(representing the niche complementarity hypothesis)and aboveground biomass(representing the vegetation quantity hypothesis)correlated positively but insignifcantly with *** biodiversity-EMF relationships highlight the fragility and instability of drylands relative to forest ***:The findings from this study serve as important reference points to understand the ris of soil acidification in arid regions and its impacts on biodiversity-EMF relationships.

关键词： Soil acidification risk Biodiversity Ecosystem multifunctionality Niche complementarity hypothesis Mass ratio hypothesis Vegetation quantity hypothesis

Accurate Shortwave Radiation Simulation with a Two-Layer Aerosol Model in xinjiang Region

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Journal of Meteorological research 2024年第1期38卷 69-87页

作者： Guan HUANG Yonghang CHEN Qiong liU Pengtao WANG Qianshan HE Qing HE Shuai li Weiling SHAO Ting FAN School of Tourism&research institute of Human Geography Xi’an International Studies UniversityXi’an 710128 Center for Silk Road and Eurasian Civilization Studies Xi’an International Studies UniversityXi’an 710128 College of Environmental Science and Engineering Donghua UniversityShanghai 201620 Shanghai Meteorological Service Shanghai 200030 Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health Shanghai 200030 Taklimakan desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration Institute of Desert MeteorologyUrumqi 830002 xinjiang Climate Centre Xinjiang Meteorological ServiceUrumqi 830002

To harness the rich solar energy resources in xinjiang Region of Northwest China,this study tries to address the issue of lack of downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR)observations and the need to improve the accuracy of satellite retrieval and numerical simulation of DSSR under varied sky and meteorological conditions.(1)A two-layer aerosol model specific to xinjiang was developed to capture the vertical distributions of aerosols based on multiple data sources including lidar,GPS sounding,ground meteorological observations,and profiles from the ECMWF reanalysis version 5(ERA5)*** results show that the ERA5/PBLH(planetary boundary layer height)and ERA5/ALH(aerosol layer height)could be used to establish the two-layer aerosol model and characterize the vertical distribution of aerosols in xinjiang Region.(2)Using the Santa Barbara Discrete Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART)model,a localized inverse model of clear-sky DSSR was *** parameter adjustment and using the optimal combination of input parameters for DSSR simulation together with the two-layer aerosol model,the model-simulated DSSR(DSSRSBD)under clear-sky conditions improved significantly compared to the initial results,with all fitting indices greatly improved.(3.In addition,the study demonstrated that the impact of the two-layer aerosol model on DSSR was more pronounced under dust conditions than clear-sky conditions.(4)Using the localized clear-sky DSSR inversion model and its required parameters,simulations were also conducted to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of DSSR under clear-sky conditions in xinjiang from 2017 to *** annual average DSSR_(SBD)under clear-sky conditions in xinjiang during 2017–2019 was 606.78 W m^(-2),while DSSR from CERES(DSSR_(CER))under the same conditions was generally higher(703.95 W m^(-2)).(5)It is found that satellite remote sensing products experienced data loss in high-altitude snow areas,where numerical simulation technology could ser

关键词： downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR) aerosol vertical distribution Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System(CERES) Santa Barbara Discrete Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART) xinjiang