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China and the Reform of International Trade Governance System

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Social Sciences in China 2021年第3期42卷 140-164页

作者： Dong Yan li chunding University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of World Economics and PoliticsCASS College of Economics and Management China Agricultural University

The 21st century has carried the international trade governance system into a period of accelerated *** reform has been fueled by many factors including the requirement of the in-depth development of global value chains for cross-border institutional coordination,the requirement of the form of digital economy for new digital rules,and the requirement of the dominant countries under the traditional international trade governance system for the maintenance of their own *** reform of international trade governance system has driven China to adjust itself to external pressures while creating opportunities for the country to deepen the reform and join international trade *** as a beneficiary and firm supporter of economic globalization has rapidly grown from a marginal participator in economic globalization into a builder and contributor of the governance of the international trading *** plays an active part in the reform of international trading system and the construction of a community of shared future for mankind by means of the making of rules,the reshaping of rules,the adjustment of rules,and the adaptation to *** addition,the critical measures for China to cope with the changes of globalization also consist in its deepened domestic reform,proactive opening-up,facilitated alignment with domestic and international rules,and an institutional environment suitable for the new situation of a"dual circulation"development pattern.

关键词： international trade governance system international economic and trade rules CPTPP WTO reform

Economic Effects of China’s Import Expansion Strategy

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China Economist 2022年第3期17卷 62-88页

作者： li chunding Lang Yongfeng He Chuantian School of Economic Management China Agricultural UniversityBeijingChina School of Economics Nanjing Audit UniversityNanjingChina Research Center for International Trade and Economics Guangdong University of Foreign StudiesGuangzhouChina

Since 2018,China has enacted a string of policy initiatives to increase *** quantify this import expansion strategy’s economic effects,we created a large numerical general equilibrium model and quantitatively simulated the economic effects of the reductions of tariff and non-tariff barriers on China and other *** simulation results show that overall,China’s import expansion strategy benefited both itself and others and contributed to employment,welfare,and trade growth in China and the rest of the *** relative terms,however,China’s import expansion strategy benefited other countries more than it did itself and contributed more to the growth of the world ***,the import expansion strategy may effectively promote China’s trade balance,and the trade equilibrium effect driven by the reduction of non-tariff barriers is more significant than that of tariff ***,regarding the self-benefiting effects of import expansion,the effects of nontariff measures are significantly greater than those of tariff measures,and this result has policy implications for China’s import expansion strategy going forward.

关键词： Import expansion strategy economic effects general equilibrium simulation

Analysis of FTA's Potential Economic Effects on China

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China Economist 2018年第6期13卷 49-61页

作者： li chunding Guo Zhifang He Chuantian College of Economics and Management China Agricultural University School of Economics Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics Research Center for International Trade and Economics Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

As part of its further opening-up initiatives for the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020), China will accelerate the implementation of free trade agreement strategies and create free trade area networks with high standards-in which the development of mega-regional trade agreements(mega-RTAs) is a key component. This paper creates a large global general equilibrium numerical model system comprising 29 economies, and precisely models the free trade agreements' effects based on the progress of ongoing regional trade agreement negotiations. Then, a counterfactual simulation method is employed to quantitatively evaluate and compare the potential economic effects of China's existing large regional trade agreement negotiations. Simulated results lead to the following findings:(1) All these free trade agreements will increase China's welfare, output, employment and trade. Among them, the trade effect is the strongest, followed by output and employment effects, and welfare effect is relatively small.(2) Other members out of the free trade agreements all benefit. In comparison, smaller and more export-dependent economies benefit more, while China will dominate the negotiations given its comparative gains and contributions.

关键词： mega-RTAs China numerical general equilibrium welfare trade

Optimal Tariff and Endogenous Drivers for Trade liberalization

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China Economist 2020年第2期15卷 30-40页

作者： li chunding Lu Jing He Chuantian College of Economics and Management China Agricultural UniversityBeijingChina School of Economics Zhejiang UniversityHangzhouChina Research Center for International Trade and Economics Guangdong University of Foreign StudiesGuangzhouChina

Trade liberalization requires institutional coordination and openness,and is driven by a multitude of *** paper simulates endogenous optimal tariffs under different model structures to uncover the underlying drivers of trade *** calibration and simulation methods based on the numeric general equilibrium model are employed to estimate the optimal tariff rates of countries with and without trade ***,near-reality assumptions are added into the standard general equilibrium model structure,including the cross-border capital flow,multi-country assumption and trade cost,to simulate decreasing optimal tariff *** simulation results suggest that world economic development has increased the economic ties and interdependence among nations,making trade liberalization an endogenous optimal *** backlash against globalization in recent years is motivated by short-term factors,but will not persist in the long run since it goes against the law of economic growth and socio-economic development.

关键词： optimal tariff rate general equilibrium model structure trade liberalization

中国对外反倾销措施的产业救济效果研究(1997～2007)

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南方经济 2011年第5期40卷 3-16页

作者：李春顶中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

本文在理论机理分析的基础上,全面实证评估了我国对外反倾销措施的产业救济效果。通过选取1997～2007年全体、国有和外资企业加总的行业面板数据,搜集在此期间我国发起的所有对外反倾销案件,采用系统GMM动态面板估计方法,实证检验了措... 详细信息

本文在理论机理分析的基础上,全面实证评估了我国对外反倾销措施的产业救济效果。通过选取1997～2007年全体、国有和外资企业加总的行业面板数据,搜集在此期间我国发起的所有对外反倾销案件,采用系统GMM动态面板估计方法,实证检验了措施对于行业出口、产值、就业人数、利润、企业数目以及劳动生产率的救济作用。结果发现,中国对外反倾销的产业救济效果良好,尤其明显地提高了行业利润、产值、企业数、生产率以及就业人数,但对出口影响较微弱;同时效果主要体现在行业总体和私营企业上,对国有和外资企业基本无显著影响;比较而言,行业利润和生产率的救济效果最突出,其次是产值、就业和企业数目,出口基本无显著影响。由此政策上应进一步强化和完善我国的反倾销申诉与执行机制。

关键词：反倾销产业救济贸易效果

出口与增长:中国三十年经验实证(1978-2008)

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财经科学 2009年第5期 117-124页

作者：李春顶中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

改革开放三十年来,我国经济和对外贸易成就斐然。那么,对外贸易与经济增长两者之间究竟是什么关系,中国奇迹般的经济增长何以能够实现,出口对于增长贡献了什么,我们从出口和增长的关联中能够得到哪些经验。本文在全面解析三十年经济成... 详细信息

改革开放三十年来,我国经济和对外贸易成就斐然。那么,对外贸易与经济增长两者之间究竟是什么关系,中国奇迹般的经济增长何以能够实现,出口对于增长贡献了什么,我们从出口和增长的关联中能够得到哪些经验。本文在全面解析三十年经济成就以及参考国内外文献的基础上,实证检验和分析了出口推动中国经济增长的作用,并从中总结和得到了相关的经验和结论。

关键词：出口贸易经济增长经验总结

出口贸易、FDI与我国企业的国际化路径选择——新—新贸易理论模型扩展及我国分行业企业数据的实证研究

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南开经济研究 2009年第2期 15-28页

作者：李春顶中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 100732

我国企业应该继续扩大出口还是转而对外直接投资,它们应该如何在不同的国际化路径间抉择,是当前我国经济发展和转型中的一项重要课题和难题。本文以国际贸易前沿的新—新贸易理论框架为基础,扩展了理论模型,得出生产率高的企业应该选择... 详细信息

我国企业应该继续扩大出口还是转而对外直接投资,它们应该如何在不同的国际化路径间抉择,是当前我国经济发展和转型中的一项重要课题和难题。本文以国际贸易前沿的新—新贸易理论框架为基础,扩展了理论模型,得出生产率高的企业应该选择对外直接投资,而生产率低的企业应该选择出口贸易的结论。同时,选取我国36个行业的1997—2006年的数据,用三种不同的方法估算和矫正行业全要素生产率,并将理论应用到实际,解析和得出了我国不同行业应有的国际化路径选择。

关键词：出口贸易对外直接投资企业国际化新-新贸易理论

技术性贸易壁垒的保护成本:测度、评价与政策启示

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世界经济研究 2006年第12期 27-33页

作者：李春顶复旦大学经济学院世界经济系

技术性贸易壁垒作为一种贸易保护手段,近年来广受各国欢迎和青睐,国内外相关理论文献也层出不穷。然而对技术性贸易壁垒的保护成本问题,研究还是少见而残缺。鉴于此,论文全面剖析和测度了技术性贸易壁垒的保护成本;将它与产业保护政策... 详细信息

技术性贸易壁垒作为一种贸易保护手段,近年来广受各国欢迎和青睐,国内外相关理论文献也层出不穷。然而对技术性贸易壁垒的保护成本问题,研究还是少见而残缺。鉴于此,论文全面剖析和测度了技术性贸易壁垒的保护成本;将它与产业保护政策、关税以及其它非关税贸易措施进行了成本收益的对比;并从中得出政策启示。

关键词：技术性贸易壁垒保护成本测度评价政策启示

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新—新贸易理论文献综述

世界经济文汇 2010年第1期 102-117页

作者：李春顶中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 100732

新—新贸易理论是国际贸易的最新理论前沿,其从微观层面分析企业的贸易和投资等国际化路径选择,以及外包和一体化等全球组织生产选择。国际化路径选择部分以Melitz(2003)为基础,又称为异质性企业贸易理论;全球组织生产选择部分以Antras(... 详细信息

新—新贸易理论是国际贸易的最新理论前沿,其从微观层面分析企业的贸易和投资等国际化路径选择,以及外包和一体化等全球组织生产选择。国际化路径选择部分以Melitz(2003)为基础,又称为异质性企业贸易理论;全球组织生产选择部分以Antras(2003)为基础,又称为企业内生边界理论。本文按照这两个分支系统介绍和梳理了新—新贸易理论的研究文献,对比和评析了相关研究的结论与方法,并提出了未来的研究思路和方向。

关键词：新-新贸易理论企业异质性出口贸易对外直接投资外包