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Track forecast:Operational capability and new techniques-Summary from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10)

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第1期12卷 64-80页

作者： Adam Conroy Helen Titley Rabi Rivett Xiangbo Feng John Methven Kevin Hodges Alan Brammer Andrew Burton Paromita Chakraborty Guomin Chen levi cowan Jason Dunion Abhijit Sarkar Bureau of Meteorology West PerthAustralia Met Office ExeterUK National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology University of ReadingReadingUK Department of Meteorology University of ReadingReadingUK Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere Colorado State UniversityFort CollinsUSA National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting NoidaIndia Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration ShanghaiChina Joint Typhoon Warning Center HonoluluUSA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies University of Miamiand Hurricane Research DivisionNOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological LaboratoryMiamiUSA

In this paper,we summarize findings from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10)subgroup on operational track forecasting techniques and *** rate of improvement in the accuracy of official forecast tracks(OFTs)appears to be slowing down,at least for shorter lead times,where we may be approaching theoretical *** agencies continue to use consensus methods to produce the OFT with most continuing to rely on an unweighted consensus of four to nine NWP *** continues to be limited use of weighted consensus techniques,which is likely a result of the skills and additional maintenance needed to support this *** in the accuracy of ensemble mean tracks is leading to increased use of ensemble means in consensus *** agencies are increasingly producing situation-dependent depictions of track uncertainty,rather than relying on a static depiction of track forecast certainty based on accuracy statistics from the preceding 5 *** trend has been facilitated by the greater availability of ensemble NWP guidance,particularly vortex parameter files,and improved spread in *** improving spread-skill relationships,most ensemble NWP systems remain under *** many operational centers are looking to leverage“super-ensembles”(ensembles of ensembles)to ensure the full spread of location probability is *** is an important area of service development for multi-hazard impact-based warnings as it supports better decision making by emergency managers and the community in the face of uncertainty.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological *** services by Elsevier *** behalf of KeAi Communication *** is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： Tropical cyclones Track forecasting Ensembles Track uncertainty

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A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 2:Forecasts by operational centers

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第1期12卷 50-63页

作者： Weiguo Wang Zhan Zhang John P.Cangialosi Michael Brennan levi cowan Peter Clegg Hosomi Takuya Ikegami Masaaki Ananda Kumar Das Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma John A.Knaff John Kaplan Thomas Birchard James D.Doyle Julian Heming Jonathan Moskaitis Suhong Ma Charles Sampson Liguang Wu Eric Blake NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center USA NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center USA Joint Typhoon Warning Center USA Bureau of Meteorology Australia Japan Meteorological Agency Japan Indian Meteorological Department India NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division USA Central Pacific Hurricane Center USA Naval Research Laboratory USA Met Office UK China Meteorological Administration China Fudan University ShanghaiChina IMSG@NOAA/NWS/OSTI USA

This paper summarizes the progress and activities of tropical cyclone(TC)operational forecast centers during the last four years(2018–2021).It is part II of the review on TC intensity change from the operational perspective in the rapporteur report presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,*** I of the review has focused on the progress of dynamical model forecast *** part discusses the performance of TC intensity and rapid intensification forecasts from several operational *** is shown that the TC intensity forecast errors have continued to decrease since the 9th IWTC held in *** particular,the improvement of rapid intensification forecasts has accelerated,compared with years before *** models,operational procedures,tools and techniques,as well as recent challenging cases from 2018 to 2021 identified by operational forecast centers are *** needs and recommendations are also discussed.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological *** services by Elsevier *** behalf of KeAi Communication *** is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://***/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关键词： Forecast error Intensity forecast Operational forecasts Tropical cyclone

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A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 1:Dynamical model guidance

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第1期12卷 30-49页

作者： Zhan Zhang Weiguo Wang James D.Doyle Jonathan Moskaitis William A.Komaromi Julian Heming Linus Magnusson John P.Cangialosi levi cowan Michael Brennan Suhong Ma Ananda Kumar Das Hosomi Takuya Peter Clegg Thomas Birchard John A.Knaff John Kaplan Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Ikegami Masaaki Liguang Wu Eric Blake NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center USA SAIC@NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center USA Naval Research Laboratory USA Met Office UK ECMWF ReadingUK NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center USA Joint Typhoon Warning Center USA China Meteorological Administration China Indian Meteorological Department India Japan Meteorological Agency Japan Bureau of Meteorology Australia Central Pacific Hurricane Center USA NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research USA NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division USA Fudan University ShanghaiChina IMSG@NOAA/NWS/OSTI USA

This review summarizes the rapporteur report on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change from the operational perspective,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,*** accuracy of TC intensity forecasts issued by operational forecast centers depends on three aspects:real-time observations,TC dynamical model forecast guidance,and techniques and methods used by *** rapporteur report covers the progress made over the past four years(2018–2021)in all three *** review focuses on the progress of dynamical model forecast *** companion paper(Part II)summarizes the advance from operational *** dynamical model forecast guidance continues to be the main factor leading to the improvement of operational TC intensity ***,we describe recent advances and developments of major operational regional dynamical TC models and their intensity forecast performance,including HWRF,HMON,COAMPS-TC,Met Office Regional Model,CMA-TYM,and newly developed *** performance of global dynamical models,including NOAA's GFS,Met Office Global Model(MOGM),JMA's GSM,and IFS(ECMWF),has also been improved in recent years due to their increased horizontal and vertical resolution as well as improved data assimilation *** challenging cases of rapid intensification are presented and discussed.

关键词： Dynamical models Intensity forecast Operational forecasts Tropical cyclone

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