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CHAR ACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FORECASTS AND UNDERDISPERSION IN HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECASTING WITH A STOCHASTIC KINETIC ENERGY BACKSCATTER SCHEME

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2014年第4期3卷 203-217页

作者： levi thatcher Zhaoxia Pu Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of UtahSalt Lake CityUtahUSA

This study evaluates ensemble forecasts with a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme(SKEBS)to predict tropical cyclone(TC)genesis and also to characterize the related ensemble *** sets of ensemble forecasts are generated using an advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model at 5 km horizontal resolution to predict the genesis of Hurricane Ernesto(2006)and Typhoon Nuri(2008).Ensemble forecasts with SKEBS are compared against a control ensemble forecast with the WRF model using downscaled initial conditions derived from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting *** is found that ensemble forecasts with SKEBS are able to generate probabilistic forecasts for TC genesis and also capable of indicating the forecast *** with the deterministic forecast that fails to predict the genesis of Typhoon Nuri,the ensemble forecast with SKEBS is able to produce the genesis ***,the underdispersion of ensemble forecasts with SKEBS is also present in all cases in terms of the simulation period and over the whole model domain,TC environment,and inner core regions,although it is reduced near the TC inner core *** addition,the initial perturbation–based ensemble forecasts shows slightly less underdispersion compared with the SKEBS ensembles.

关键词： tropical cyclone genesis stochastic kinetic energy backscatter ensemble forecasting WRF

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EVALUATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS PRECURSORS WITH REI ATIVE OPER ATING CHARACTERISTICS(ROC)IN HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE FORECASTS:HURRICANE ERNESTO

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2013年第3期2卷 131-148页

作者： levi thatcher Zhaoxia Pu Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of UtahSalt Lake CityUtahU.S.A.

Identifying the environmental conditions that control tropical cyclone(TC)genesis is a challenging *** study examines a new method to evaluate the precursors of TC genesis using high-resolution ensemble forecasts and relative operating characteristic(ROC)*** an advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,high-resolution ensemble forecasts(at 5 km horizontal resolution)are conducted in various configurations using a bred vector method to form a set of 140 ensemble members for predicting Hurricane Ernesto’s *** evaluation shows that high-resolution ensemble forecasts are able to predict well-developed TCs,whereas the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System(GEFS)fails to do *** set of 140 ensemble members is employed to study the precursors of Hurricane Ernesto’s genesis by contrasting the genesis and nongenesis ***,ROC curves,composite figures for genesis and nongenesis cases,and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests are applied to characterize the relationship between important environmental parameters near the beginning of the simulation and genesis likelihood 15-18 h *** is found that moist conditions at 850 hPa,vertical wind shear,the strength of the 850 hPa pre existing wave,and upper-level warming play notable roles in Ernesto’s genesis.

关键词： tropical cyclone genesis ensemble forecasting relative operating characteristics WRF bred vector

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