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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2018年第8期17卷 1888-1899页

作者： SONG Chun-xiao les oxley MA Heng-yun College of Economics and Management Henan Agricultural University Department of Economics and Finance University of Waikato

Water availability is a major constraint on grain production in China, therefore, improving irrigation efficiency is particularly important when agriculture faces extreme weather events. This paper first calculates irrigation efficiency with a translog stochastic frontier production function and then investigates what happens when extreme weather events occur via a Tobit model. The estimated results reveal several important features of irrigation practices: i) irrigation efficiency is lower when extreme weather events occur; ii) large variations in irrigation efficiency occur across irrigation facilities; iii) the farm plots exhibit an extreme distribution across efficiency levels; and iv) water-saving techniques, technology adoption, and the maintenance of farmers’ economic resilience are major determinants of irrigation efficiency. Based on these results we propose the following recommendations: i) farmers should balance crop yield and water use; undertake relevant training programs and adopt water-saving techniques; ii) local governments and researchers should help farmers to find the optimal level of irrigation water use based on their own circumstances and provide better water-saving techniques and training programs rather than simply encouraging farmers to invest in irrigation facilities in the most extreme weather years; and iii) the income level of farm households should be increased so as to improve their resilience to natural disasters.

关键词： irrigation efficiency determinants irrigation facilities water-saving techniques extreme weather events

Do farmers care about climate change? Evidence from five major grain producing areas of China

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2019年第6期18卷 1402-1414页

作者： SONG Chun-xiao LIU Rui-feng les oxley MA Heng-yun College of Economics and Management Henan Agricultural UniversityZhengzhou 450002P.R.China Department of Economics and Finance University of WaikatoHamilton 3240New Zealand

Using a logistic model,this paper empirically investigated farmers’perception of climate change and its determinants based on a field survey of 1 350 rural households across five major grain producing provinces in *** results show:i)There is an apparent difference in perception levels for long-term temperature and precipitation ***,57.4%of farmers perceived the long-term temperature change correctly,but only 29.7%of farmers perceived the long-term precipitation change correctly;ii)The factors influencing the farmers’perceptions are almost completely different between precipitation and temperature,the former are mostly agriculture related,while latter are mostly non-agriculture related,except for farm size;and iii)Farmers are not expected to pay more attention to long-term precipitation changes over the crop growing seasons,because less than 30%of farmers can correctly perceive long-term precipitation ***,to improve the accuracy of farmers’perceptions of climate change,the government is recommended to:i)enhance education and training programs;ii)speed up land transfer and expand household land farm size;iii)develop farmer cooperative organizations;iv)invest more in agricultural infrastructure,specifically in major grain producing regions;and v)improve the agricultural environment and increase farming income.

关键词： China major grain producing areas determinants climate change perception irrigation areas

The puzzle of the missing meat: Food away from home and China's meat statistics

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Journal of Integrative Agriculture 2015年第6期14卷 1033-1044页

作者： XIAO Hong-bo CHEN Qiong WANG Ji-min les oxley MA Heng-yun School of Economics and Management Beijing University of Agriculture Institute of Rural Economy and Agricultural Regional Planning Tianjin Academy of Agricultural Sciences Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Department of Economics University of Waikato College of Economics and Management Henan Agricultural University

From 1985, an increasing gap has emerged between the official statistical measures of meat production and meat consumption in China, which has raised concerns from many researchers using such data. In this paper we report the results of 428 observations（survey of 107 urban and rural households×4 quarters） from 7 provinces conducted in 2010, and compare them with the official statistical data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China（NBSC）. We conclude that the main reason for the discrepancy is due to the underreporting of consumption, which is due mainly to the omission of consumption away from home.

关键词： consumed quarters capita official household income missing puzzle Bureau raised

A New Procedure to Test for Fractional Integration

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Open Journal of Statistics 2016年第4期6卷 651-666页

作者： William Rea Chris Price les oxley Marco Reale Jennifer Brown Department of Economics and Finance University of Canterbury Christchurch New Zealand Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Canterbury Christchurch New Zealand Waikato Management School University of Waikato Hamilton New Zealand

It is now widely recognized that the statistical property of long memory may be due to reasons other than the data generating process being fractionally integrated. We propose a new procedure aimed at distinguishing between a null hypothesis of unifractal fractionally integrated processes and an alternative hypothesis of other processes which display the long memory property. The procedure is based on a pair of empirical, but consistently defined, statistics namely the number of breaks reported by Atheoretical Regression Trees (ART) and the range of the Empirical Fluctuation Process (EFP) in the CUSUM test. The new procedure establishes through simulation the bivariate distribution of the number of breaks reported by ART with the CUSUM range for simulated fractionally integrated series. This bivariate distribution is then used to empirically construct a test which rejects the null hypothesis for a candidate series if its pair of statistics lies on the periphery of the bivariate distribution determined from simulation under the null. We apply these methods to the realized volatility series of 16 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and show that the rejection rate of the null is higher than if either statistic was used as a univariate test.

关键词： Long-Range Dependence Strong Dependence Global Dependence Regression Trees CUSUM Test Volatility

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中国的能源经济形势、机遇挑战和政策建议

中国人口·资源与环境 2010年第S1期20卷 257-260页

作者：马恒运郭学先唐华仓刘旗 les oxley 河南农业大学河南郑州450002 济南工程职业技术学院山东济南250200 新西兰坎特伯雷大学

中国的能源消费增长快且增加基数大,以煤炭为主导致运输环境压力较大,石油资源匮乏、需求缺口大和进口依赖度高,使用效率低、消耗强度高、节能潜力大,出口增长拉动国内能源消耗增加。中国能源消费面临高速稳定的经济增长、不断提高的城... 详细信息

中国的能源消费增长快且增加基数大,以煤炭为主导致运输环境压力较大,石油资源匮乏、需求缺口大和进口依赖度高,使用效率低、消耗强度高、节能潜力大,出口增长拉动国内能源消耗增加。中国能源消费面临高速稳定的经济增长、不断提高的城市化水平、交通运输业飞速发展、能源体制改革的滞后、高能耗产品出口、能源使用效率低等的主要挑战。同时,中国能源供给有转变经济增长方式、开发新能源、改进能源勘探技术、充分利用丰富的劳动力资源,改革能源管理体制等机遇。中国能源经济研究主要集中在能源消费与经济增长关系,能源消费时间序列预测,能源消费强度指数分析等上。未来中国能源经济研究要以能源经济的制度创新、能源经济的技术创新、能源经济市场化发展、能源消费行为、能源和非能源要素替代等为重点。中国能源经济发展要以转变经济增长方式、提高能源效率为主,加强制度创新和技术创新,用市场经济手段引导能源消费行为。

关键词：中国能源经济机遇挑战能源改革