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Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017

Geodesy and Geodynamics 2018年第6期9卷 485-490页

作者： leonid zotov Xueqing Xu Yonghong Zhou Arkadiy Skorobogatov Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Lomonosov Moscow State University Moscow 119992 Russia Shanghai Astronomical Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanghai 200030 China National Research University Higher School of Economics Russia

As the participants of Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project(EOPC PPP),Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University(SAI) and Shanghai Astronomical Observatory(SHAO) have accumulated ～1800 days of Earth Orientation Parameters(EOP) predictions since2012 till 2017, which were up to 90 days into the future, and made by four techniques: auto-regression(AR), least squares collocation(LSC), and neural network(NNET) forecasts from SAI, and least-squares plus auto-regression(LS+AR) forecast from SHAO. The predictions were finally combined into SAISHAO COMB EOP prediction. In this work we present five-year real-time statistics of the combined prediction and compare it with the uncertainties of IERS bulletin A predictions made by USNO.

关键词： EOP prediction Error estimation Combined forecast Polar motion UT1-UTC

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A possible interrelation between Earth rotation and climatic variability at decadal time-scale

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Geodesy and Geodynamics 2016年第3期7卷 216-222页

作者： leonid zotov C.Bizouard C.K.Shum National Research University Higher School of Economics Moscow Institute of Electronics and Mathematics Lomonosov Moscow State University Sternberg Astronomical Institute SYRTE Observatoire de Paris PSL Research University CNRS Sorbonne Universités UPMC Univ Division of Geodetic Science School of Earth Sciences The Ohio State University State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth's Dynamics Institute of Geodesy & Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences

Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis （MSSA） we decomposed climatic time se- ries into principal components, and compared them with Earth rotation parameters. The global warming trends were initially subtracted. Similar quasi 60 and 20 year periodic os- cillations have been found in the global mean Earth temperature anomaly （HadCRUT4） and global mean sea level （GMSL）. Similar cycles were also found in Earth rotation variation. Over the last 160 years multi-decadal change of Earth＇s rotation velocity is correlated with the 60-year temperature anomaly, and Chandler wobble envelope reproduces the form of the 60-year oscillation noticed in GMSL. The quasi 20-year oscillation observed in GMSL is correlated with the Chandler wobble excitation. So, we assume that Earth＇s rotation and climate indexes are connected. Despite of all the clues hinting this connection, no sound conclusion can be done as far as ocean circulation modelling is not able to correctly catch angular momentum of the oscillatory modes.

关键词： Earth rotation Climate change Sea level Multichannel singular spectrumanalysis (MSSA) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO)

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Multichannel singular spectrum analysis of the axial atmospheric angular momentum

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Geodesy and Geodynamics 2017年第6期8卷 433-442页

作者： leonid zotov N.S.Sidorenkov Ch.Bizouard C.K.Shum Wenbin Shen National Research University Higher School of Economics Moscow Institute of Electronics and MathematicsRussia Hydro-Meteorological Center of Russia Global Atmospheric Circulation LaboratoryRussia SYRTE Observatoire de ParisPSL Research UniversityCNRSSorbonne Universit esUPMC Univ.Paris 06Franced Division of Geodetic Science School of Earth SciencesThe Ohio State UniversityUSA Institute of Geodesy&Geophysics Chinese Academy of SciencesWuhanChina department of geophysics school of geodesy and ceomaticskey Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy of MinistryWuhan UniversityWuhan 430079China

Earth＇s variable rotation is mainly produced by the variability of the AAM（atmospheric angular momentum）. In particular, the axial AAM component X_3, which undergoes especially strong variations,induces changes in the Earth＇s rotation rate. In this study we analysed maps of regional input into the effective axial AAM from 1948 through 2011 from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Global zonal circulation patterns related to the LOD（length of day） were described. We applied MSSA（Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis） jointly to the mass and motion components of AAM, which allowed us to extract annual, semiannual, 4-mo nth, quasi-biennial, 5-year, and low-frequency oscillations. PCs（Principal components） strongly related to ENSO（El Nino southern oscillation） were released. They can be used to study ENSO-induced changes in pressure and wind fields and their coupling to LOD. The PCs describing the trends have captured slow atmospheric circulation changes possibly related to climate variability.

关键词： Earth's variable rotation Atmospheric circulation AAM(Atmospheric angular momentum) MSSA(Multichannel singular spectrum analysis) ENSO(El Nino southern oscillation) LOD(Length of day)

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