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2023年汛期气候预测效果评述及先兆信号分析

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气象 2024年第3期50卷 377-386页

作者：支蓉高辉孙冷国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室北京100081

2023年夏季,我国整体表现为高温少雨的特征,旱涝分布不均。夏季台风虽然生成和登陆个数均较常年偏少,但破坏力极强。华北、西北等地阶段性高温事件异常突出,但长江流域的高温干旱强度明显弱于2022年同期。从预测效果来看,2023年汛期预... 详细信息

2023年夏季,我国整体表现为高温少雨的特征,旱涝分布不均。夏季台风虽然生成和登陆个数均较常年偏少,但破坏力极强。华北、西北等地阶段性高温事件异常突出,但长江流域的高温干旱强度明显弱于2022年同期。从预测效果来看,2023年汛期预测较好把握了我国北方主雨带特征,对松花江流域、嫩江流域、海河流域可能出现的较重汛情做出了准确的预测预警。对夏季热带气旋的生成个数、主要路径、影响区域等的预测与实况较为相符。对夏季全国大部地区气温偏高的特征预测与实况一致,并明确指出,长江流域发生类似2022年夏季大范围持续性高温干旱事件的可能性低。汛期预测的不足之处主要在于对华南等地的降水预测与实况出现较大偏差,对华北、黄淮等地的高温过程极端性估计不足。针对2023年汛期降水的先兆信号及其预报性能进行了回顾和评估,无论是年代际尺度还是年际尺度外强迫信号,均对我国北方主雨带有较好的指示意义。同时,几乎所有先兆信号都对华南降水给出了一致的错误信息,是导致华南降水预报失败的主要原因。

关键词：夏季降水高温热浪热带气旋先兆信号

Exploration for the Priority of HIV Intervention:Modelling Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness—Six Cities,Eastern China,2019-2028

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China CDC weekly 2024年第20期6卷 463-468,I0008-I0014页

作者： Youran Zhang Lili Wang Zhen Jiang Hongjing Yan Xiaoxia Liu Jing Gu Guoyong Wang Xiaosong Cheng Qiyan leng Qisui Long Zimian Liang Jing Wang Liang Liang Yanchao Qiu Lin Chen Hang Hong School of Health Service Management Anhui Medical UniversityHefei CityAnhui ProvinceChina Division of Prevention and intervention National Center for AIDS and STD Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Nanjing CityJiangsu ProvinceChina Zhenjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention Zhenjiang CityJiangsu ProvinceChina Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention Wuxi CityJiangsu ProvinceChina Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Jinan CityShandong ProvinceChina Yantai Center for Disease Control and Prevention Yantai CityShandong ProvinceChina Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Guangzhou CityGuangdong ProvinceChina Foshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention Foshan CityGuangdong ProvinceChina Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Shijiazhuang CityHebei ProvinceChina Shijiazhuang Center for Disease Control and Prevention Shijiazhuang CityChina Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Hangzhou CityZhejiang ProvinceChina Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention Ningbo CityZhejiang ProvinceChina

Introduction:In order to enhance the effectiveness of resource allocation,regions must tailor their responses to their specific epidemiological and economic ***:Utilizing Spectrum software,we projected the cost-effectiveness of 10 chosen HIV interventions in six cities in eastern China from 2019 to *** assessed three scenarios—Base,Achievable,and Idealized—for each *** analysis included the projected number of HIV infections and deaths averted,as well as the incremental costeffectiveness ratios for each intervention in the six ***:In Shijiazhuang,Wuxi,Yantai,and Zhenjiang,cities with initially low antiretroviral therapy(ART)coverage,ART showed significant effectiveness,especially for ***,in Foshan and Ningbo,where ART coverage was notably high,oral pre-exposure prophylaxis(PrEP)for men who have sex with men(MSM)proved effective in the Idealized *** outreach,ART for males,and ART for females demonstrated cost-effectiveness across all six cities in both Achievable and Idealized scenarios at the predefined thresholds for each ***:Maintaining an appropriate coverage rate for outreach to MSM can lead to *** cities with low ART coverage,scaling up ART remains a crucial *** regions with high ART coverage,consideration may be given to the utilization of oral PrEP for MSM individuals,requiring budget allocation.

关键词： Eastern Ningbo Impact

Applying Hybrid Clustering in Pulsar Candidate Sifting with Multi-modality for FAST Survey

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Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 2024年第3期24卷 283-296页

作者： Zi-Yi You Yun-Rong Pan Zhi Ma Li Zhang Shuo Xiao Dan-Dan Zhang Shi-Jun Dang Ru-Shuang Zhao Pei Wang Ai-Jun Dong Jia-Tao Jiang Ji-Bing leng Wei-An Li Si-Yao Li School of Physics and Electronic Science Guizhou Normal UniversityGuiyang 550025China Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory of Radio Astronomy and Data Processing Guizhou Normal UniversityGuiyang 550025China College of Big Data and Information Engineering Guizhou UniversityGuiyang 550025China CAS Key Laboratory of FAST National Astronomical ObservatoriesChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Information and Computing Guizhou Province Guizhou Normal UniversityGuiyang 550001China School of Big data and Computer Science Guizhou Normal UniversityGuiyang 550025China Guizhou Software Engineering Research Center Guiyang 550000China

Pulsar search is always the basis of pulsar navigation,gravitational wave detection and other research ***,the volume of pulsar candidates collected by the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical radio Telescope(FAST)shows an explosive growth rate that has brought challenges for its pulsar candidate filtering ***,the multi-view heterogeneous data and class imbalance between true pulsars and non-pulsar candidates have negative effects on traditional single-modal supervised classification *** this study,a multi-modal and semi-supervised learning based on a pulsar candidate sifting algorithm is presented,which adopts a hybrid ensemble clustering scheme of density-based and partition-based methods combined with a feature-level fusion strategy for input data and a data partition strategy for *** on both High Time Resolution Universe SurveyⅡ(HTRU2)and actual FAST observation data demonstrate that the proposed algorithm could excellently identify pulsars:On HTRU2,the precision and recall rates of its parallel mode reach0.981 and 0.988 *** FAST data,those of its parallel mode reach 0.891 and 0.961,meanwhile,the running time also significantly decreases with the increment of parallel nodes within ***,we can conclude that our algorithm could be a feasible idea for large scale pulsar candidate sifting for FAST drift scan observation.

关键词： methods data analysis-surveys-methods numerical

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东海区域海洋学调查研究回顾

海洋科学进展 2024年第1期42卷 1-20页

作者：冉祥滨徐腾飞赵彬郭景松乔淑卿魏泽勋冷疏影自然资源部第一海洋研究所山东青岛266061 崂山实验室山东青岛266237 国家自然科学基金委员会地球科学部北京10085

由于近几十年来日益增强的人类活动影响,近海海洋环境较过去发生了巨大变化;科学认知近海海洋环境特征、变化和控制因素对于应对全球变化具有重要意义,是当前海洋学关注的重要议题。东海作为中国重要的海洋区域之一,存在独特的环流系统... 详细信息

由于近几十年来日益增强的人类活动影响,近海海洋环境较过去发生了巨大变化;科学认知近海海洋环境特征、变化和控制因素对于应对全球变化具有重要意义,是当前海洋学关注的重要议题。东海作为中国重要的海洋区域之一,存在独特的环流系统,孕育了大河口、上升流和黑潮三个代表性的生态系统,其海洋科学研究对于我国的海洋资源开发、环境保护和国家安全具有重要意义。本文通过对东海区域海洋学研究的现状进行综述,围绕海洋生物地球化学这一主线,重点总结了物理海洋学、海洋化学、海洋地质学和生物海洋学的相关研究进展,分析了目前存在的问题,并展望了未来的发展方向。研究表明,东海区域海洋环境受到人类活动和气候变化的深刻影响,呈现新的变化格局;长江径流输入、黑潮北上及其入侵陆架是东海三大生态系统格局形成的主要驱动力。除主要的环流结构外,穿刺锋面和跨陆架海流是连接东海内陆架和外陆架水体的主要动力过程,并促进了碳等重要生源物质的跨陆架输送。相关研究在海洋生态环境、应对气候变化、海洋灾害等方面取得了一定的成果,但仍面临着数据不足、研究领域不够广泛等挑战。东海海洋环境在时间和空间上变化均较大,且存在近岸富营养化、大河口低氧现象等主要环境问题,因此有必要加强东海区域海洋学的研究。未来,应鼓励自由探索研究,加强国内、国际合作,提高数据共享和技术创新能力,推动东海海洋研究迈向更高水平。

关键词：综述区域海洋学海洋调查东海

Thrombus migration in patients with acute ischaemic stroke undergoing endovascular thrombectomy

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Stroke & Vascular Neurology 2024年第2期9卷 126-133,I0006-I0395页

作者： ZeFeng Tan Lei Zhang Li'an Huang Hongyu Qiao Min Guan Bing Yang Pengfei Yang Yongwei Zhang Hongjian Shen Yu Zhou Bo Hong Huaizhang Shi Hongxing Han Xinyi leng Yi Dong Changlin Lian Wenhuo Chen Anding Xu Jianmin Liu Neurology First People's Hospital of FoshanFoshanGuangdongChina Department of Neurology Jinan University First Affiliated HospitalGuangzhouGuangdongChina Neurovascular Center Changhai HospitalNaval Medical UniversityShanghaiChina Department of Neurosurgery First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical UniversityHarbinChina Department of Neurology Linyi People's HospitalLinyiShandongChina Medicine&Therapeutics The Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongChina Neurology Huashan Hospital Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina Neurology Zhangzhou Municipal Hospital of Fujian Province and Zhangzhou Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical UniversityZhangzhouFujianChina Stroke Center Jinan University First Affiliated HospitalGuangzhouGuangdongChina

Objective The impact of thrombus migration(TM)prior to endovascular thrombectomy(EVT)on clinical outcomes and revascularisation rates remains *** aimed to examine whether preinterventional TM modifies the treatment effects of direct EVT versus bridging EVT in acute large vessel occlusion *** All patients undergoing catheter angiography in the Direct Intra-arterial thrombectomy in order to Revascularise acute ischaemic stroke patients with large vessel occlusion Efficiently in chinese Tertiary hospitals:A Multicentre randomised clinical Trial were *** was determined by radiologists unaware of the study by analysing discrepancies between computed tomographic angiography at baseline and first-run digital subtraction angiography before *** primary outcome was the score on the modified Rankin scale(mRS)assessed at 90 *** Of 627 included patients,the TM rate was 11.3%(71/627).In the multivariable logistic regression model,baseline National institutes of Health Stroke Scale score(adjusted OR 0.956,95%CI 0.916 to 0.999;p=0.043)and intravenous thrombolysis(adjusted OR 2.614,95%CI 1.514 to 4.514;p<0.001)were independently associated with *** patients with TM were less likely to be completely recanalised than those without TM(21.27%vs 36.23%,p=0.040).The interaction of TM and the EVT treatment effect did not significantly affect mRS shift analysis(p=0.687)or mRS scores of 0 to 1(p=0.436).Conclusion Preinterventional TM does not modify the treatment effects of direct versus bridging EVT on functional outcomes in patients with acute ischaemic stroke with anterior large vessel *** leads to a lower complete recanalisation rate.

关键词： patients throm acute

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法外因素不当入侵刑法立法系统的防范研究

河南师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版） 2024年第5期51卷 89-96页

作者：冷枫阴建峰北京师范大学法学院北京100875

刑法立法应当与社会现实保持适当互动,但同时严格区分刑法立法系统与系统的外部因素,避免外部因素不当入侵刑法立法系统,也是保证刑法立法系统正常、合理运作的重要前提,否则可能引发诸多负面后果。外部因素要进入刑法立法系统,应先转... 详细信息

刑法立法应当与社会现实保持适当互动,但同时严格区分刑法立法系统与系统的外部因素,避免外部因素不当入侵刑法立法系统,也是保证刑法立法系统正常、合理运作的重要前提,否则可能引发诸多负面后果。外部因素要进入刑法立法系统,应先转译为刑法立法系统的内部语言,进而顺利经由刑法立法系统内部理论的审查才有可能。应当确立法益保护理论和比例原则为刑法立法的条件性纲要。外部因素唯有符合或能够还原为这一条件性纲要,才可能成为刑法立法规制的对象,或者成为为刑法立法提供正当性支撑的理由。

关键词：刑法立法系统外部因素系统理论法益保护理论

Nonlinear compression of picosecond chirped pulse from thin-disk amplifier system through a gas-filled hollow-core fiber

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chinese Physics B 2016年第12期25卷 277-282页

作者：陆俊黄志远王丁许毅刘彦祺郭晓杨黎文开吴分翔刘征征冷雨欣 School of Physics Science and Engineering Tongji University Shanghai 200092 China State Key Laboratory of High Field Laser Physics Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanghai 201800 China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China Department of Physics Shanghai University Shanghai 200444 China

We theoretically study the nonlinear compression of a 20-rnJ, 1030-nm picosecond chirped pulse from the thin-disk amplifier in a krypton gas-filled hollow-core fiber. The chirp from the thin-disk amplifier system has little influence on the initial pulse, however, it shows an effect on the nonlinear compression in hollow-core fiber. We use a large diameter hollow waveguide to restrict undesirable nonlinear effects such as ionization; on the other hand, we employ suitable gas pressure and fiber length to promise enough spectral broadening; with 600-μm, 6-bar （1 bar = 105 Pa）, 1.8-m hollow fiber, we obtain 31.5-fs pulse. Moreover, we calculate and discuss the optimal fiber lengths and gas pressures with different initial durations induced by different grating compression angles for reaching a given bandwidth. These results are meaningful for a compression scheme from picoseconds to femtoseconds.

关键词： picosecond pulse hollow-core fiber thin-disk amplifier spectrum broadening

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科技战略情报实践与思考

农业图书情报学报 2024年第5期36卷 4-13页

作者：冷伏海中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院北京100190

[目的/意义]新一轮科技革命与产业变革加速演进,对国家发展与安全的影响日益深刻和广泛,科技创新系统的复杂性和不确定性凸显,科技政策议程也面临着变革转型,以应对国际上日益激烈的科技竞争,为感知科技发展的态势,各国普遍开展数据智... 详细信息

[目的/意义]新一轮科技革命与产业变革加速演进,对国家发展与安全的影响日益深刻和广泛,科技创新系统的复杂性和不确定性凸显,科技政策议程也面临着变革转型,以应对国际上日益激烈的科技竞争,为感知科技发展的态势,各国普遍开展数据智能驱动的科技战略情报实践。[方法/过程]通过调研国际标准化组织颁布的标准《创新管理-战略情报管理的工具与方法-指南》、经济合作发展组织公开的《科学、技术、创新政策议程》、美国近期开展的国家关键技术评估后发布的《保障美国的未来:关键技术评估框架》、欧盟委员会的联合研究中心的《欧洲产业研发投入记分牌》、日本《研发俯瞰报告》和中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院的《科学结构图谱》等报告研制过程中如何开发利用科技战略情报支持“证据决策”的议程。[结果/结论]科技战略情报的要义是为决策提供数据、知识与证据,战略情报运作周期模型是DIKI,面向科技政策问题的战略情报数据基础设施及其分析模型、指标和工具,在组织中建立专门的战略情报机构,理解并利用科技战略情报数据并自觉地将其纳入“证据决策”议程,以及把不同类型的战略情报结合起来使用已经成为科技政策制定者应具备的技能,科技创新政策制定者应承担起与监测科技创新系统和政策有关的大量行政数据的生成、维护、完整性和可获取性的责任。

关键词：战略情报 DIKI 数据基础设施关键技术评估证据决策

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京津冀协同发展十周年回顾与展望

经济与管理 2024年第2期38卷 1-8页

作者：武义青冷宣荣河北经贸大学京津冀协同发展河北省协同创新中心河北石家庄050061 中共河北省委党校(河北行政学院)政策情报研究中心河北石家庄050061

京津冀协同发展战略实施十周年,在疏解北京非首都功能方面推动形成了“一核两翼”发展新格局,在交通、生态环保、产业三大领域实现了率先突破,在教育、医疗、养老等公共服务均等化方面取得了令人瞩目的成效,在体制机制改革创新方面迈出... 详细信息

京津冀协同发展战略实施十周年,在疏解北京非首都功能方面推动形成了“一核两翼”发展新格局,在交通、生态环保、产业三大领域实现了率先突破,在教育、医疗、养老等公共服务均等化方面取得了令人瞩目的成效,在体制机制改革创新方面迈出了坚实的步伐。在高质量发展新阶段,努力成为中国式现代化建设的先行区、示范区已成为京津冀协同发展新的目标,因此,京津冀还须克服诸多短板和不足,以创新发展为动力,在加快形成“新质生产力”上走在全国前列;以协调发展为主线,在打造世界级城市群方面发挥示范带动作用;以绿色发展为导向,在建设生态修复环境改善示范区上实现新突破;以开放发展为助力,在打造改革开放引领区方面发挥先行先试作用;以共享发展为目的,在推进区域共同富裕方面打造全国样板。

关键词：京津冀中国式现代化先行区示范区

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