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Large-scale frequent testing and tracing to supplement control of Covid-19 and vaccination rollout constrained by supply

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 955-974页

作者： Lia Humphrey Edward W.Thommes Roie Fields laurent coudeville Naseem Hakim Ayman Chit Jianhong Wu Monica G.Cojocaru Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of GuelphGuelphOntarioCanada Vaccine Epidemiology and Modeling Sanofi PasteurCanada Founder ***Canada Sanofi Pasteur&Leslie Dan School of Pharmacy University of TorontoCanada Department of Mathematics and Statistics York UniversityCanada

Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPI)were implemented all around the world in the fight against COVID-19:Social distancing,shelter-in-place,mask wearing,*** mitigate transmission,together with testing and contact-tracing to identify,isolate and treat the *** majority of countries have relied on the former measures,followed by a ramping up of their testing and tracing *** present here the cases of South Korea,Italy,Canada and the United States,as a look back to lessons that can be drawn for controlling the pandemic,specifically through the means of testing and *** fitting a disease transmission model to daily case report data in each of the four countries,we first show that their combination of social-distancing and testing/tracing have had a significant impact on the evolution of their first wave of pandemic *** then consider the hypothetical scenario where the only NPI measures implemented past the first pandemic wave consisted of isolating individuals due to repeated,country-scale testing and contact tracing,as a mean of lifting social distancing measures without a resurgence of *** give estimates on the average isolation rates needed to occur in each *** find that testing and tracing each individual of a country,on average,every 4.5 days(South Korea),5.7 days(Canada),6 days(Italy)and 3.5 days(US),would have been sufficient to mitigate their second pandemic *** also considered the situation in Canada to see how a frequent large-scale asymptomatic testing and contact tracing could have been used in combination with vaccination rollout to reduce the infection in the *** could offer an alternative approach towards preventing and controlling an outbreak when vaccine supply is limited,while testing capacity has been increasingly enhanced.

关键词： Pandemic modelling Pandemic evolution scenarios Testing frequency policy modelling

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