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Fractional Order Modeling of Predicting COVID-19 with Isolation and Vaccination Strategies in Morocco

Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2023年第8期136卷 1931-1950页

作者： lakhlifa sadek Otmane sadek Hamad Talibi Alaoui Mohammed S.Abdo Kamal Shah Thabet Abdeljawad Laboratory of Engineering Sciences for Energy National School of Applied SciencesChouaib Doukkali UniversityEl Jadida10002Morocco Department of Mathematics Faculty of SciencesChouaib Doukkali UniversityEl Jadida10002Morocco Department of Mathematics Hodeidah UniversityAl-Hudaydah91911Yemen Department of Mathematics and Sciences Prince Sultan UniversityRiyadh11586Saudi Arabia Department of Mathematics University of MalakandChakdara Dir(L)Khyber Pakhtankhawa18000Pakistan Department of Medical Research China Medical UniversityTaichung40402Taiwan

In this work,we present a model that uses the fractional order Caputo derivative for the novel Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)with different hospitalization strategies for severe and mild cases and incorporate an awareness *** generalize the SEIR model of the spread of COVID-19 with a private focus on the transmissibility of people who are aware of the disease and follow preventative health measures and people who are ignorant of the disease and do not follow preventive health ***,individuals with severe,mild symptoms and asymptomatically infected are also *** basic reproduction number(R0)and local stability of the disease-free equilibrium(DFE)in terms of R0 are ***,the uniqueness and existence of the solution are *** simulations are performed by using some real values of ***,the immunization of a sample of aware susceptible individuals in the proposed model to forecast the effect of the vaccination is also ***,an investigation of the effect of public awareness on transmission dynamics is one of our aim in this ***,a prediction about the evolution of COVID-19 in 1000 days is *** the qualitative theory of the existence of a solution,we use some tools of nonlinear analysis,including Lipschitz ***,for the numerical interpretation,we use the Adams-Moulton-Bashforth *** the numerical results are presented graphically.

关键词： Fractional calculus caputo derivatives COVID-19 reproduction number future prediction

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