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The Inter-Annual Variability of Rainfall Onset and Its Implication on Crop Planting in Selected East Africa Countries

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American Journal of Climate change 2023年第2期12卷 268-291页

作者： Isack Baliyendeza Yonah Philemon Henry King’uza ladislaus benedict chang’a Mecklina Merchades Babyegeye Henry Fatael Mahoo Agnes Lawrence Kijazi Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) Dar es Salaam Tanzania Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA) Morogoro Tanzania World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Addis Ababa Ethiopia

The inter-annual variability of rainfall onset and crop replanting in East Africa (EA) was assessed using daily estimated rainfall data from climate hazard group infrared precipitation (CHIRPS Ver2.0) and monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) indices [Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at NINO3.4 region] from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The data covered a period of 40 years from1981 to 2020. The methods of cumulative of daily mean rainfall, percentage of onset date departure (PODD), Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, student t-test, and correlation were applied in the analysis. The results showed that early onset with dry spell (WDS) consideration frequently occurs in Uganda between the first and second dekads of September, while late rainfall onset WDS occurs in the first and second dekads of December over central and Northern Kenya as well as in the Northeastern highlands, parts of the northern coast and unimodal regions in Tanzania. Rainfall onset with no dry spell (WnDS) portrayed an average of 10 days before the occurrence of true onset WDS, with maximum onset departure days (ODD) above 30 days across the Rift Valley area in Kenya and the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. The high chance of minimum ODD is seen over entire Uganda and the area around Lake Victoria. However, few regions, such as Nakuru (Kenya) Gulu and Kibale (Uganda), and Gitega (Burundi), revealed a slight positive linear trend while others showed negative trend. Significant positive patterns for correlation between onset WDS and SST indices (IOD and NINO 3.4) were discovered in Northern and Northeastern Kenya, as well as areas along the Indian Ocean (over Tanzania’s Northern Coast). Inter-annual relationship between onset dates WDS and IOD (NINO3.4) indices exhibits a high correlation coefficient r = 0.23 (r = 0.48) in Uganda and r = 0.44 (r = 0.36) in Kenya. On the other hand, a negative correlation was revealed over Burundi and

关键词： Inter-Annual Variability Rainfall Onset Crop Planting East Africa

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Assessing the Variability of Heavy Rainfall during October to December Rainfall Season in Tanzania

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第2期11卷 267-283页

作者： Lovina Peter Japheth Guirong Tan ladislaus benedict chang’a Agnes Lawrence Kijazi Kantamla Biseke Mafuru Isack Yonah Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Nanjing University of Science and Technology Nanjing China

Heavy rainfall is one of the primary causes of flood during rainy season in Tanzania leading to severe socio-economic impacts. The study aimed at assessing and characterizing the variability of Heavy Rainfall Events (HREs) using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Mann-Kendal (MK) trend test, Correlation and Composite analysis methods. Based on the daily-observed precipitation and reanalysis data sets for the October to December (OND) rainfall season of 35 years (1981-2015), the spatial and temporal characteristics of HREs in Tanzania are studied. The relationship between heavy rainfall (HR) and large-scale circulation anomalies including the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Ni?o southern oscillation (ENSO) indices was assessed. The study found that, approximately 590 HREs were concentrated over northern sector and coastal belt of Tanzania. The monthly variability indicates that HREs are more pronounced in December followed by November while October being the least affected. The occurrence of HREs over the Lake Victoria, Kigoma and Tabora is largely attributed to low-level convergence of westerlies and enhanced moisture from Congo basin accompanied by a pronounced rising limb of Indian Walker circulation cell. A time-series analysis of HRE exhibits an inter-annual variation characterized by a slightly increasing trend, though the computed trends were not statistically significant at 95% confidence level. In most part of Tanzania HREs were positively correlated with both ENSO and IOD indices, underscoring the critical role of ENSO and Indian Ocean dynamic in modulating rainfall variability over the region. In general, it has been found that most of the HREs are generally triggered or amplified by large-scale circulation patterns such as ENSO and IOD.

关键词： Rainfall Variability Heavy Rainfall Events OND Tanzania

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Best Practices and Lessons Learned in the Implementation of Global Framework for Climate Services—Adaptation Programme in Africa: Tanzania-Experience

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第4期11卷 749-766页

作者： Agnes Lawrence Kijazi ladislaus benedict chang’a Wilbert Timiza Muruke Mathew Masumbuko Ndaki Mecklina Merchades Babyegeya Sudi Yasini Kisama Omari Hamisi Juma Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Meteorological Cooperation Unit Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Agro-Meteorology Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Central Forecasting Office Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Climatology and Climate change Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania

This paper provides an analysis and a description of the best practices and lessons learned in the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Program in Africa (GFCS-APA) focusing on Tanzania country’s activities. GFCS-APA was the first multi-agency initiative implemented under the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) in two African countries, namely Tanzania and Malawi with funding from the Royal Government of Norway. In Tanzania, the programme was implemented in two phases from the year 2014 to 2021 in the three pilot districts of Kondoa, Longido and Kiteto located in Dodoma, Arusha and Manyara regions, respectively. The overarching goal of the programme was to enable better management of the risks caused by climate variability and change at all levels, from end-users to policy level, through development and incorporation of science-based climate in

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Trends of Temperature Extreme Indices over Arusha and Kilimanjaro Regions in Tanzania

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第3期11卷 520-534页

作者： ladislaus benedict chang’a Lovina Peter Japheth Agnes Lawrence Kijazi Elisia Hamisi Zobanya Leila Francis Muhoma Meshack Anton Mliwa Jafari Swalehe Chobo Research and Applied Meteorology Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Agrometeorological Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Climatology and Climate change Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Volunteers Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania

The study aimed at analyzing the trends and variability of temperature extremes over the northeastern highlands in Tanzania, specifically over Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. Quality controlled mean monthly, daily maximum and minimum temperature data for the period 1961 to 2020, obtained from Tanzania Meteorological Authority, were used in the study. Rclimdex and the National Climate Monitoring Products (NMCP) software, developed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), were used for computation of the indices at a monthly, season

关键词： Climate Extreme Warm Night Cold Night Extreme Temperature Indices NCMP

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Assessment of the Evolution and Socio-Economic Impacts of Extreme Rainfall Events in October 2019 over the East Africa

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2020年第3期10卷 319-338页

作者： ladislaus benedict chang’a Agnes Lawrence Kijazi Kantamla Biseke Mafuru Alfred Lawrence Kondowe Sarah Emirald Osima Habiba Ismail Mtongori Hashim Karim Ng’ongolo Omari Hamisi Juma Edward Michael Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania

This study aimed at establishing and quantifying the evolution and socio-economic impacts of extreme rainfall events in October 2019. The study also focused on ascertaining the extent to which the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influenced anomalous rainfall over East Africa (EA) in October 2019. It employed Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) methods to analyze inter-annual variability of EA rainfall and the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) over the Indian and Pacific Ocean with a focus on October to December 2019 rainfall season. The SVD analysis enabled the exploration of the leading modes from the mean monthly rainfall and SSTs leading to the determination of the likely influence of the IOD and ENSO respectively. The first SVD coupled modes, which dominate the co-variability between the October rainfall over the EA domain, and SSTA over the Indian and Pacific Oceans based on 1981 to 2010 climatology indicate the monopole positive co-variability with rainfall over the entire EA domain. The corresponding spatial pattern for the SSTA over the Indian Ocean (IO) recaptures the positive IOD event while the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (i.e., over Ni?o 3.4 region) reveals a monopole positive loading, a typical signal for the warm phase of ENSO. The positive rainfall anomaly over the EA during October is found to be associated with either the IOD event or ENSO condition events independently or in phase. However, the inter-annual variability between October rainfall over EA and ENSO reveals a moderate relationship (r = 0.4212) while a robust association (r = 0.7084) is revealed with IOD. Comparatively, the October 2019 rainfall anomaly peaks the highest in history over the EA and was found to be coupled with highest positive IOD event in record. Unlikely, the 1997 October rainfall (which peaked the second in history), was associated with the co-occurrence of the positive phase of ENSO and

关键词： Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Extreme Events OND

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Understanding the Evolution and Socio-Economic Impacts of the Extreme Rainfall Events in March-May 2017 to 2020 in East Africa

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2020年第4期10卷 553-572页

作者： ladislaus benedict chang’a Agnes Lawrence Kijazi Kantamla Biseke Mafuru Patricia Achieng Nying’uro Musa Ssemujju Bamanya Deus Alfred Lawrence Kondowe Isack Baliyendeza Yonah Mohamed Ngwali Sudi Yasini Kisama Gahigi Aimable Joseph Ndakize Sebaziga Blandine Mukamana Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Kenya Meteorological Department Nairobi Kenya Uganda National Meteorological Authority Kampala Uganda Rwanda Meteorology Agency Kigali Rwanda

This study aimed at assessing the evolution, distribution and the socio-economic impacts of extreme rainfall over East Africa during the March, April and May (MAM) rainfall season focusing on assessing the trends and contribution of MAM rainfall in mean annual rainfall across the region. It employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA) methods to capture the patterns and variability of MAM rainfall. The PCA results indicated that the first Principal Component (PC) describe 17% of the total variance, while the first six PCs account only 53.5% of the total variance in MAM rainfall, underscoring the complexity of rainfall forcing factors in the region. It has been observed that MAM rainfall accounts about 30% - 60% of the mean annual rainfall in most parts of the region, signifying its importance in agriculture, water, energy and other socio-economic sectors. MAM has been characterized by increasing variability with varying trend patterns across the region. The MAM rainfall trend is not homogeneous across the region;some areas are experiencing a slight decreasing rainfall trend, while other areas are experiencing a slight increasing rainfall trend. The observed trend dynamics is consistent with the global trend patterns in precipitation as depicted in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) reports. Over the last five years MAM rainfall season have been characterized by record-breaking extremes. On 8th May 2017, Tanga and Mombasa meteorological stations recorded 316 mm and 235.1 mm of rainfall in 24 hours respectively, which are the highest amounts for these respective stations, since their establishment. Record highest 24 hours rainfall amounting to 134.9 mm and 119.4 mm were also observed at Buginyanya and Kawanda meteorological stations in Uganda on 18th March 2018 and 7th May 2020. On 6th May 2020, Byimana meteorological station in Rwanda, also observed 140.6 mm of rainfall in 24 hours, the highest since its establishment. These extremes have caused multiple losses of life and

关键词： Extreme Rainfall Events Principal Components MAM ENSO IOD

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Rainfall Variability over Tanzania during October to December and Its Association with Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2021年第2期11卷 324-341页

作者： Hassan Khatib Ame Agnes Lawrence Kijazi ladislaus benedict changa Kantamla Biseke Mafuru Mohamed Khamis Ngwali Masoud Makame Faki Asya Omar Hmad Miraji Khamis Miraji Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania

The current study examines the interannual rainfall variability and its associated atmospheric circulation in Tanzania during October-December (OND) rainfall season based on 1974 to 2010 climatology. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), composite and correlation analysis were used in this study. Years with enhanced precipitation are found to be associated with the low level moist and unstable wind from Congo basin which organizes and forms a confluent zone, an inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) extending from Congo to northern sector of the country. It however, characterizes low-level westerly moisture flux transport sourced from Congo basin, ascending limb of the local Indian Ocean Walker circulation over East Africa which enhances convection for wetness condition. Wet years are also coupled with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition. On the spatial scale, both the IOD and ENSO indices are well correlated with OND rains over the bimodal areas (Lake Victoria basin, North Eastern Highlands (NEH), and northern coast) with strong correlation being to the NEH. Strong temporal correlation is revealed between the OND rains and IOD (r = 0.6304) compared to ENSO (r = 0.5538) indicating that anomalous warming over the western Indian Ocean has a faster response to OND rains in Tanzania than the remote influence induced by anomalous warming from the central Pacific Ocean. The patterns associated with dry years are found to be linked with the low-level divergence accompanied by convergence in the upper level. This condition enhances continuous descending motion accompanied with suppression in rainfall activities. Dry years are also associated with negative IOD, cold phase of ENSO condition, descending limb of the Walker Circulation and significant reduction in the westerly moisture flux transport sourced from Congo basin towards the western sector and Lake Victoria basin.

关键词： OND Rainfall Empirical Orthogonal Function Correlation Tanzania

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Precise mapping of hilar cholangiocarcinoma with a skip lesion by SpyGlass cholangioscopy:A case report

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World Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2023年第5期15卷 965-971页

作者： Cheng-Han Chiang Kuan-Chih Chen benedict Devereaux Chen-Shuan Chung Kuei-chang Kuo Chien Chu Lin Cheng-Kuan Lin Hsiu-Po Wang Kuo-Hsin Chen Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Department of Internal MedicineXin-Tai General HospitalNew Taipei 242063Taiwan Department of Internal Medicine Far Eastern Memorial HospitalNew Taipei 22060Taiwan Department of Gastroenterology Royal Brisbane and Women's HospitalHerston 4029QueenslandAustralia Department of Internal Medicine College of MedicineNational Taiwan UniversityTaipei 10002Taiwan Department of Surgery Far Eastern Memorial HospitalNew Taipei 22060Taiwan

BACKGROUND Cholangiocarcinoma(CC)is a very aggressive cancer with a poor prognosis.As surgery is the only curative therapy,preoperative evaluation of the tumor extent is essential for surgical planning.Although high-quality image modalities such as computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging have been used extensively in preoperative evaluation,the accuracy is low.To obtain precise localization of tumor spread arising from the hilar region preoperatively,the development of an acceptable imaging modality is still an unmet need.CASE SUMMARY A 52-year-old female presented to our emergency department with jaundice,abdominal pain,and fever.Initially,she was treated for cholangitis.Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography with the cholangiogram showed long segment filling defect in the common hepatic duct with dilatation of bilateral intrahepatic ducts.Transpapillary biopsy was performed,and the pathology suggested intraductal papillary neoplasm with high-grade dysplasia.After treatment of cholangitis,contrasted-enhanced computed tomography revealed a hilar lesion with undetermined Bismuth-Corlette classification.SpyGlass cholan gioscopy showed that the lesion involved the confluence of the common hepatic duct with one skip lesion in the posterior branch of the right intrahepatic duct,which was not detected by previous image modalities.The surgical plan was modified from extended left hepatectomy to extended right hepatectomy.The final diagnosis was hilar CC,pT2aN0M0.The patient has remained disease-free for more than 3 years.CONCLUSION SpyGlass cholangioscopy may have a role in precision localization of hilar CC to provide surgeons with more information before the operation.

关键词： Hilar cholangiocarcinoma Jaundice SpyGlass cholangioscopy Bismuth-Corlette classification Hepatectomy Case report

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Medium-term mortality after hip fractures and COVID-19:A prospective multicentre UK study

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Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2022年第3期25卷 161-165页

作者： Gareth Chan Ashish Narang Arash Aframian Zaid Ali Joseph Bridgeman Alastair Carr Laura Chapman Henry Goodier Catrin Morgan chang Park Sarah Sexton Kapil Sugand Thomas Walton Michael Wilson Ajay Belgaumkar Kieran Gallagher Koushik Ghosh Charles Gibbons Joshua Jacob Andrew Keightley Zuhair Nawaz Khaled Sarraf Christopher Wakeling William Kieffer benedict Rogers Brighton&Sussex University Hospitals NHS Trust Brighton&Sussex Medical SchoolFainter CampusBrighton UK Surrey&Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust Canada&venueRedhillUK Chelsea&Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust LondonUK Ashford&St frier's Hospital NHS Foundation TrustChertseyUK Western Sussex Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust(Sr Richard's Hospital)ChichesterUK Poole General Hospital&the Royal Bournemouth Hospital froleUK Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust LondonUK Western Sussex Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust(Worthing Hospital) WorthingUK Royal Surrey Hospital NHS Foundation Trust GuildfordUK Frimley Health NHS Foundation Trust FrimleyUK

Purpose:The COVID-19 pandemic has caused 1.4 million deaths globally and is associated with a 3-4 times increase in 30-day mortality after a fragility hip fracture with concurrent COVID-19 infection.Typically,death from COVID-19 infection occurs between 15 and 22 days after the onset of symptoms,but this period can extend up to 8 weeks.This study aimed to assess the impact of concurrent COVID-19 infection on 120-day mortality after a fragility hip fracture.Methods:A multi-centre prospective study across 10 hospitals treating 8%of the annual burden of hip fractures in England between 1st March and 30th April,2020 was performed.Patients whose surgical treatment was payable through the National Health Service Best Practice Tariff mechanism for"fragility hip fractures"were included in the study.Patients'120-day mortality was assessed relative to their perioperative COVID-19 status.Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 27.Results:A total of 746 patients were included in this study,of which 87(11.7%)were COVID-19 positive.Mortality rates at 30-and 120-day were significantly higher for COVID-19 positive patients relative to COVID-19 negative patients(p<0.001).However,mortality rates between 31 and 120-day were not significantly different(p=0.107),16.1%and 9.4%respectively for COVID-19 positive and negative patients,odds ratio 1.855(95%CI 0.865-3.978).Conclusion:Hip fracture patients with concurrent COVID-19 infection,provided that they are alive at day-31 after injury,have no significant difference in 120-day mortality.Despite the growing awareness and concern of "long-COVID"and its widespread prevalence,this does not appear to increase mediumterm mortality rates after a hip fracture.

关键词： Hip fractures Femoral fractures COVID-19 Coronavirus Mortality

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The Contribution of the Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa (GFCS APA) in National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Process for Tanzania

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2019年第4期9卷 650-661页

作者： Agnes Kijazi ladislaus chang’a Philbert Luhunga Hashim Ng’ongolo Mecklina Merchades Pamela Levira Research Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Climatology and Climate change Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania Agrometeorological Section Tanzania Meteorological Authority Dar es Salaam Tanzania.

This article assesses the contribution of the Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Programme in Africa (GFCS APA) in the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process for Tanzania. Different research project outputs (field survey and workshop reports) produced during the implementation of GFCS APA are reviewed to assess the contribution of GFCS APA programme in the establishment and implementation of NAP process in Tanzania. It is found that the implementation of GFCS-APA programme in Tanzania has improved the availability, accessibility, and applicability of climate information to different stakeholders. This has in turn attributed to significant use of climate information in planning and decision making in target sectors: agriculture and food security, disaster risk reduction, energy, health and water resource management. This has increased the adaptation capacity of vulnerable communities from the impacts of climate variability and change. Furthermore, it is evident that the aims and objectives of establishments of NAP process in Tanzania have been addressed through implementation of GFCS APA Programme. Moreover, since the GFCS APA in Tanzania is implemented within its five pillars namely: observation and monitoring, research, modeling and prediction, climate information systems, user interface platform and capacity development. The achievement made in each pillar contributed in enhancement of resilience of vulnerable communities to climate variability and change hence addressing the aims and objectives of NAP process in Tanzania. Therefore, it is recommended that achievements of GFCS APA Programme in Tanzania to be used as a guide to the development and implementations of the NAP process in Tanzania.

关键词： Global Framework for Climate Services World Meteorological Organization National Adaptation Plan

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