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Simulation of sea surface temperature changes in the Middle Pliocene warm period and comparison with reconstructions

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Science Bulletin 2011年第9期56卷 892-901页

作者： YAN Qing1,2*, ZHANG ZhongShi3.1*, WANG HuiJun1,4. JIANG DaBang1,4.5 & ZHENG WeiPeng6 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029,{3. 2 Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10004.,{3. 3.Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, UniResearch, Bergen N-5007, Norway 4.Climate Change Research Center, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029,{3. 5 key laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029,{3. 6 National key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical {24. {23., institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029,{3. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research UniResearch Bergen N-5007 Norway Climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China key laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China National key laboratory of numerical {3. for {4. sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The Middle Pliocene (ca 3.12–2.97 Ma) is a recent warm period in the Earth’s history. In many respects, the warmth of the Middle Pliocene is similar to the probable warm situation of the late 21st century predicted by climate models. Understanding the Middle Pliocene climate is important in predicting the future climate with global warming. Here, we used the latest reconstructions for the Middle Pliocene—Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 3.to simulate the Middle Pliocene climate with a fully coupled model Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. From comparison of the results of simulations with reconstructions, we considered two important scientific topics of Middle Pliocene climate modeling: extreme warming in the subpolar North Atlantic and a permanent El Ni?o in the tropical Pacific. Our simulations illustrate that the global annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Middle Pliocene was about 2.3.C higher than that in the pre-industrial era. The warming was stronger at midand high latitudes than at low latitudes. The simulated SST changes agree with SST reconstructions in PRISM3.data, especially for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and west coast of South America. However, there were still discrepancies between the simulation of the SST and reconstructions for the subpolar North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. In the case of the Atlantic, the weakened meridional overturning circulation in the simulation did not support the reconstruction of the extremely warm condition in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the case of the tropical Pacific, the whole ocean warmed, especially the eastern tropical Pacific, which did not support the permanent El Ni?o suggested by the reconstruction. From evaluation of the modeling and reconstruction, we suggest that the above discrepancies were due to uncertainties in reconstructions, difficulties in paleoclimate modeling and deficiencies of climate models. The discrepancies should be reduced through cons

关键词： Middle Pliocene sea surface temperature permanent El Ni?o numerical modeling extreme warming

Formation of the thermal-driven boundary jet in an f-plane mesoscale basin

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Science china Earth sciences 2008年第1期51卷 152-160页

作者： FENG LiCheng1,2 & CHAO JiPing3.4.1 State key laboratory of numerical {3. for atmospheric Science and geophysical fluid dynamics (LASG), institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100029, china 2 Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences, {13. 10004., china 3.National Marine Environment Forecast Center, {13. 100081, china 4.First institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, china 1. State key laboratory of numerical {3. for {4. Science and geophysical fluid dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China 2. Graduate University of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China 3. National Marine Environment Forecast Center Beijing 100081 China 4. First institute of Oceanography State Oceanic Administration Qingdao 266061 China

The paper adopts an f-plane quasi-geostrophic inertial model without linearization to investigate the perturbation temperature, boundary jet and upwelling (downwelling) in an idealized rectangular basin, under the consideration of west side friction layer and heat conservation. There is net heat input on the upper surface and equal quality heat dissipation on the west boundary, and without heat exchange on other boundaries, then the heat is conservation in the whole basin. Results show that there is thermal front due to denseness of the perturbation temperature in the west side boundary, the perturbation pressure and flow field are reversal on the upper layer and bottom layer. On the bottom layer, the west coastal current is northward, and the maximum perturbation pressure center is on the west, however, on the upper layer, the east coastal current is southward, and the maximum perturbation pressure center is on the east. There is strong vertical flow in narrow western boundary layer, and also in the central zone. The effect of different upper thermal forcings is also studied, and it can be concluded that there is always temperature denseness and boundary jet near the west boundary, and the appearance of flow field reversal, but the distribution of vertical flow is rather different.

关键词： boundary jet vertical flow thermal front thermal-driven heat conservation

Evaluation and Projection of Population Exposure to Temperature Extremes over the beijing−Tianjin−Hebei Region Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model RegCM4.Ensemble

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1132-1146页

作者： Peihua QIN Zhenghui XIE Rui HAN Buchun liu State key laboratory of numerical {3. for {4. sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences(CAAS)Beijing 100081China

Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and *** of all,the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4.with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core in simulating seasonal temperature and temperature extremes was evaluated over the historical period of 1991–99 at a 12-km spatial resolution over china and a 3.km resolution over the beijing−Tianjin−Hebei(JJJ)region,a typical urban agglomeration of *** of spatial distributions of temperature extremes over the JJJ region using RegCM4.with hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic cores showed high spatial correlations of more than 0.8 with the *** a warming climate,temperature extremes of annual maximum daily temperature(TXx)and summer days(SU)in china and the JJJ region showed obvious increases by the end of the 21st century while there was a general reduction in frost days(FD).The ensemble of RegCM4.with different land surface components was used to examine population exposure to temperature extremes over the JJJ *** exposure to temperature extremes was found to decrease in 2091−99 relative to 1991−99 over the majority of the JJJ region due to the joint impacts of increases in temperature extremes over the JJJ and population decreases over the JJJ region,except for downtown ***,changes in population exposure to temperature extremes were mainly dominated by future population ***,we quantified changes in exposure to temperature extremes with temperature increase over the JJJ *** study helps to provide relevant policies to respond future climate risks over the JJJ region.

关键词： CMIP6 convection-permitting population exposure RegCM4 temperature extremes

利用长短期记忆网络LSTM对赤道太平洋海表面温度短期预报

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大气科学 2024年第2期48卷 745-754页

作者：张桃林鹏飞刘海龙郑伟鹏王鹏飞徐天亮李逸文刘娟陈铖中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球物理流体动力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029 中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院北京100049 哈尔滨工业大学电子与信息工程学院哈尔滨150001 北京应用气象研究所北京100029 西北工业大学航海学院西安710072

海表面温度作为海洋中一个最重要的变量,对全球气候、海洋生态等有很大的影响,因此十分有必要对海表面温度(SST)进行预报。深度学习具备高效的数据处理能力,但目前利用深度学习对整个赤道太平洋的SST短期预报及预报技巧的研究仍较少。... 详细信息

海表面温度作为海洋中一个最重要的变量,对全球气候、海洋生态等有很大的影响,因此十分有必要对海表面温度(SST)进行预报。深度学习具备高效的数据处理能力,但目前利用深度学习对整个赤道太平洋的SST短期预报及预报技巧的研究仍较少。本文基于最优插值海表面温度(OISST)的日平均SST数据,利用长短期记忆(LSTM)网络构建了未来10天赤道太平洋(10°S~10°N,120°E~80°W)SST的逐日预报模型。LSTM预报模型利用1982~2010年的观测数据进行训练,2011~2020年的观测数据作为初值进行预报和检验评估。结果表明:赤道太平洋东部地区预报均方根误差(RMSE)大于中、西部,东部预报第1天RMSE为0.6℃左右,而中、西部均小于0.3.。在不同的年际变化位相,预报RMSE在拉尼娜出现时期最大,正常年份次之,厄尔尼诺时期最小,RMSE在拉尼娜时期比在厄尔尼诺时期可达20%。预报偏差整体表现为东正、西负。相关预报技巧上,中部最好,可预报天数基本为10天以上,赤道冷舌附近可预报天数为4.7天,赤道西边部分地区可预报天数为3.。预报模型在赤道太平洋东部地区各月份预报技巧普遍低于西部地区,相比较而言各区域10、11月份预报技巧最低。总的来说,基于LSTM构建的SST预报模型能很好地捕捉到SST在时序上的演变特征,在不同案例中预报表现良好。同时该预报模型依靠数据驱动,能迅速且较好地预报未来10天以内的日平均SST的短期变化。

关键词：海表面温度 LSTM (long short-term memory) 短期预报赤道太平洋

Different Impacts of Intraseasonal Oscillations on Precipitation in Southeast china between Early and Late Summers

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1885-1896页

作者： Junqi liu Riyu LU State key laboratory of numerical {3. for {4. sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This study investigates the influences of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO), which originates from the equatorial Indian Ocean and prevails over the Indo-Pacific region, on precipitation over Southeast china, including South china and Yangtze River Valley. The results indicate that the BSISO-related precipitation anomalies are remarkably different between early summer(May–June) and late summer(July–August). The BSISO-related precipitation anomalies tend to appear more northward in late summer in comparison with early summer. Accordingly, the BSISO is significantly related to precipitation anomalies over South china during many phases in early summer but related to very weak anomalies during all the phases in late summer. Such northward shifts of precipitation anomalies from early summer to late summer are clearest during phases 4.and 7, when the lower-tropospheric anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation anomalies dominate over the subtropical western North Pacific, respectively. Finally, we explain the differences between early and late summers through the seasonal northward migration of climatological equivalent potential temperature gradient, which is located in the South china during early summer but migrates northward to the YRV during late summer.

关键词： intraseasonal oscillation precipitation Southeast china

Heating status of the Tibetan Plateau from April to June and rainfall and atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia in midsummer

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Science china Earth sciences 2005年第2期48卷 250-257页

作者： DUAN Anmin liu Yimin WU Guoxiong State key laboratory of numerical {3. for {4. sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China

Based on the 1958-1999 monthly averaged reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)/National Center for atmospheric Research(NCAR)and the rainfall data of 160 chinese surface stations,the relationship between rainfall and the atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia(EA)in July and the sensible heating(SH)over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)from April to June(AMJ)is investigated by using the rotational experimental orthogonal function(REOF)*** results show that the TP is an isolated heating source in this *** lagged correlation analysis between the first rotational principal component(RPC)of SH over the TP in May and rainfall of EA in July demonstrates that strong SH over the TP before July leads to a positive rainfall anomaly over the TP,the valley between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River,and the regions south and southeast of the TP,and the Sichuan Basin and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,but less rainfall anomaly over the regions north,northeast,and west of the *** rainfall anomaly patterns are shown to be well coordinated with those of the circulation and vapor flux fields,and are explained by using the thermal adaptation theory and quasi-stationary large-scale vorticity ***,the status of SH over the TP during AMJ can be used as a predictor for the rainfall anomaly over EA,especially in the valley between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau sensible heating East Asia rainfall circulation.

ITF in a coupled GCM and its interannual variability related to ENSO and IOD

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2006年第1期25卷 32-47页

作者： LI Wei LI Zhaoxin liu Hailong State key laboratory of numerical {3. for {4. sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique CNRS Universite Pierre et Marie Curie Paris France

The interannual variability of the mass transport of the Indonesian Throughflow （ITF） is very possible to be connected with the E1 Nino-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） in the Pacific Ocean and/or the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD）. The IPSL （institute Pierre-Simon Laplace） coupled general circulation model （CGCM） was employed to examine the interannual variability of the ITF and understand its relationship with the climatic variation in both the basins. A 1 000 a integration was conducted and an annual mean model output was utilized. The pathways of the simulated ITF are reasonable within the Indonesian seas. The major transport occurs in the upper 3.0 m, with an annual mean transport of 15.68×106 m^3.s, among which the 13.83.1^6 m^3.s through the Makassar Strait is the principal component. The interannual variability of the ITF transport is significant in a 2～4.a period. The relationship between sea level differences across the Indonesian seas （sites in the western Pacific north of the equator and south coast of Java, respectively） and the ITF transport is straightforward on the interannual time-scale with a simultaneous correlation of 0.82. Further investigation indicates that the preceding climatic variation in the tropical Pacific is related to the ITF transport anomaly. The ENSO-like pattem leads the extreme of ITF transport by 1 a, with the correlation between a Nifio 3.SST index and the ITF transport of 0.3.. It means that there tends to be an E1 Nino anomaly in the Pacific 1 a before a large ITF transport. The simultaneous correlation between the Nino 3.SST index and the ITF transport is -0.3.. The patterns of sea surface temperature and sea surface height are, however, not the typical ENSO anomaly. The ITF transport is more related to the concurrent interannual variability over the Indian Ocean. The simultaneous correlation between the ITF transport and the dipole mode index is 0.4. and the pattem of upper layer anomaly is much like that of the IOD.

关键词： Indonesian Throughflow ENSO interannual variability

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风云三号积雪覆盖产品评估

遥感技术与应用 2018年第1期33卷 35-46页

作者：张帅师春香梁晓贾炳浩吴捷南京信息工程大学地理科学学院江苏南京210044 国家气象信息中心北京100081 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室北京100029 中国气象局国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室北京100081

由于积雪在地球气候系统和水文循环中调节能量和水交换的特定作用,准确地估计积雪分布和制作高质量的积雪产品对短期气候预测以及水文管理至关重要。中国气象局国家卫星气象中心从2009年开始生成风云三号卫星积雪覆盖率(MULSS多仪器融... 详细信息

由于积雪在地球气候系统和水文循环中调节能量和水交换的特定作用,准确地估计积雪分布和制作高质量的积雪产品对短期气候预测以及水文管理至关重要。中国气象局国家卫星气象中心从2009年开始生成风云三号卫星积雪覆盖率(MULSS多仪器融合数据)产品,为了检验产品算法和为积雪产品在气候研究中的应用提供客观依据,有必要对积雪产品的精度进行评估。以MODIS MOD10C1(MYD10C1)全球日积雪覆盖数据集为参考,基于总精度、Heidke技巧评分等5项检验指标,主要对2010~2014.的风云三号积雪产品进行评估,并进一步分析不同时间尺度积雪覆盖率精度的偏差分布。总体而言,风云三号的卫星积雪产品都与MODIS产品保持了较好的时空一致性。如在积雪季节,风云MULSS积雪产品与MODIS产品的空间分布和时间演变相对统一;但是,可能受到云检测的处理的差异的影响,在融雪期二者的有无雪一致性略有下降。此外,两个产品的积雪覆盖率偏差有明显的年际、季节和月变化,从2012年开始,风云三号MULSS积雪产品相对MODIS的偏差由在中国北部偏高转变为在全国范围内的偏低,从积雪期到融雪期,偏差明显减小。从月的时间尺度来说,东北及新疆北部地区都是积雪变化的敏感区域,青藏高原地区受到地形影响,积雪常年保持,偏差稳定。

关键词：风云三号积雪产品 MODIS 积雪覆盖率

The Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream in CRA-4., ERA5, and CFSR Reanalysis Data:Comparative Assessment

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第1期35卷 46-63页

作者： Xiaojing YU Lixia ZHANG Tianjun ZHOU Jingwei liu State key laboratory of numerical {3. for {4. sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029 University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Beijing 100101 National Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

The Asian subtropical westerly jet(AWJ) exerts crucial influences on Eurasian continent weather and climate. This paper analyzes the advantages and limitations of CRA-4., which is china's first generation 4.-yr(1979–2018) global atmosphere and land reanalysis product, in describing the characteristics of AWJ, compared with the ECMWF Reanalysis version 5(ERA5) and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR). The results show a close agreement across the three reanalyses on the whole.(1) In terms of climatology, overall differences of 200-h Pa zonal wind across the three reanalyses are within ± 0.5 m s^(-1)(i.e., ± 2%). Large differences with maxima of ± 2 m s^(-1)(±5%) appear over the Iranian Plateau and south of the Tibetan Plateau in the mid–upper troposphere in winter.(2) For seasonal cycle, the position and intensity of the AWJ centers in the three reanalyses are highly consistent, with correlation coefficient over 0.98. But there are some discrepancies in the zonal shift of the western AWJ center during the transition season.(3. On the interannual timescale, intensity of all AWJ centers varies consistently among the three reanalyses, while larger differences appear in their meridional displacement, especially in the eastern AWJ center.(4.For long-term variations, the three reanalyses all present a significant northward movement of the westerly jet axis in winter, and a southward displacement over central Asia(4.°–80°E) and a northward migration over East Asia(80°–110°E) in summer. Thus, this study has provided confidence that CRA-4. has comparable performance with ERA5 and CFSR in depicting the characteristics of AWJ.

关键词： Asian subtropical westerly jet stream(AWJ) reanalysis products CRA-4.