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Prediction of solar cycle based on the invariant

chinese Science Bulletin 2003年第23期48卷 2568-2571页

作者： liu shijun, yu {2. & chen yongyi chinese meteorological administration training Centre, beijing 100081, china correspondence should be addressed to liu shijun (e-mail: liushj@ ***) chinese meteorological {2. training Centre

A new method of predicting solar activities has been introduced in this paper. The method can predict both the occurrence time and the maximum number of sunspot at the same time. By studying the variation of sunspot, we find that the combination of the several variables was nearly in-variable during the entire solar cycles, as called invariant. And just only by determining the start time of a cycle, we can predict the occurrence time of cycles peak value accurately. Furthermore, according to observational data of the sunspot cycles, it showed that the sunspot maximum number has correlation not only with the prophase variety of the number in the cycle but also with the anaphase of the previous period. So we can introduce an equivalent regression coefficient, which can dynamically self-adapt to different cycle lengths, and effectively solve the inconsistency between the accuracy and the lead-time of the forecast. It can guarantee the satis-fied accuracy and effectively increases the lead-time of the forecast. This method can predict the maximum sunspot number for solar cycle at the approximate half rise of the period. This method predicts that the occurrence time of the maximum sunspot number for cycle 2. will be in January 2.11.

关键词：太阳黑子太阳活动周期周期预测地磁指数

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