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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2017年第8期36卷 34-41页

作者： SONG Mirong liu jiping state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Large parts of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia have experienced cold snaps and heavy snowfalls for the past few winters, which have been linked to rapid decline of Arctic sea ice. Although the role of reduction in Arctic sea ice in recent cold and snowy winters is still a matter of debate, there is considerable interest in determining whether such an emerging climate feedback will persist into the future in a warming environment. Here we show that increased winter snowfall would be a robust feature throughout the 21st century in the northeastern Europe, central and northern Asia and northern North America as projected by current-day climate model simulations under the medium mitigation scenario. We argue that the increased winter snowfall in these regions during the 21st century is due primarily to the diminishing autumn Arctic sea ice （largely externally forced）. Variability of the winter Arctic Oscillation （dominant mode of natural variability in the Northern Hemisphere）, in contrast, has little contribution to the increased winter snowfall. This is evident in not only the multi-model ensemble mean, but also each individual model （not model-dependent）. Our findings reinforce suggestions that a strong sea ice-snowfall feedback might have emerged, and would be enhanced in coming decades, increasing the chance of heavy snowfall events in northern high-latitude continents.

关键词： Arctic sea ice winter snowfall warming environment

A Neural-network-based Alternative Scheme to Include Nonhydrostatic Processes in an atmospheric Dynamical Core

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1083-1099,I0002,I0003页

作者： Yang XIA Bin WANG Lijuan LI Li liu Jianghao LI Li DONG Shiming XU Yiyuan LI Wenwen XIA Wenyu HUANG Juanjuan liu Yong WANG Hongbo liu Ye PU Yujun HE Kun XIA Ministry of Education key laboratory for Earth System modeling and Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Innovation Group 311020008 Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong LaboratoryZhuhai 519000China Shanghai Ecological Forecasting and Remote Sensing Center Shanghai 200030China key laboratory of Earth System modeling and Prediction China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China College of Ocean sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Here,a nonhydrostatic alternative scheme(NAS)is proposed for the grey zone where the nonhydrostatic impact on the atmosphere is evident but not large enough to justify the necessity to include an implicit nonhydrostatic solver in an atmospheric dynamical *** NAS is designed to replace this solver,which can be incorporated into any hydrostatic models so that existing well-developed hydrostatic models can effectively serve for a longer *** advances in machine learning(ML)provide a potential tool for capturing the main complicated nonlinear-nonhydrostatic *** this study,an ML approach called a neural network(NN)was adopted to select leading input features and develop the *** NNs were trained and evaluated with 12-day simulation results of dry baroclinic-wave tests by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)*** forward time difference of the nonhydrostatic tendency was used as the target variable,and the five selected features were the nonhydrostatic tendency at the last time step,and four hydrostatic variables at the current step including geopotential height,pressure in two different forms,and potential temperature,***,a practical NAS was developed with these features and trained layer by layer at a 20-km horizontal resolution,which can accurately reproduce the temporal variation and vertical distribution of the nonhydrostatic *** by the NN-based NAS,the improved hydrostatic solver at different horizontal resolutions can run stably for at least one month and effectively reduce most of the nonhydrostatic errors in terms of system bias,anomaly root-mean-square error,and the error of the wave spatial pattern,which proves the feasibility and superiority of this scheme.

关键词： neural network nonhydrostatic alternative scheme atmospheric model dynamical core

Seasonal constraint of dynamic water temperature on riverine dissolved inorganic nitrogen transport in land surface modeling

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 35-40页

作者： Shuang liu Kaiheng Hu Zhenghui Xie Yan Wang state key laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Safety Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengduChina state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina The National key laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention Nanjing Hydraulic Research InstituteNanjingChina

水体温度变化对河流可溶性无机氮(DIN)输送有着强烈控制作用.然而,在全球尺度上河流DIN输送量对水温度变化的响应尚不清楚.因此,本文基于陆面过程模式,耦合河流水温估算和DIN传输方案,设定有,无动态水温情景,对比研究陆面模拟中水温变... 详细信息

水体温度变化对河流可溶性无机氮(DIN)输送有着强烈控制作用.然而,在全球尺度上河流DIN输送量对水温度变化的响应尚不清楚.因此,本文基于陆面过程模式,耦合河流水温估算和DIN传输方案,设定有,无动态水温情景,对比研究陆面模拟中水温变化对河流DIN通量变化的影响.结果表明:在考虑水温动态变化后,在30°N和30°S之间, DIN通量年振幅减小5%–25%.在中国东部地区,水温动态变化使河流DIN通量在夏季减少1%–3%,在冬季增加1%–5%,对DIN通量具有明显的季节性约束作用,表明动态水温的表达在河流DIN输送模拟中的重要性.

关键词：陆面模拟河流氮输送水温变化季节变化全球尺度

Delving into the relationship between autumn Arctic sea ice and central–eastern Eurasian winter climate

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2016年第5期9卷 366-374页

作者： WANG Shao-Yin liu jiping state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences College of Earth Science University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Department of atmospheric and Environmental sciences University at AlbanyState University of New York

Whether recent Arctic sea ice loss is responsible for recent severe winters over mid-latitude continents has emerged as a major debate among climate scientists owing to short records of observations and large internal variability in mid- and high-latitudes. In this study, the authors divide the evolution of autumn Arctic sea ice extent during 1979–2014 into three epochs, 1979–1986（high）, 1987–2006（moderate）, and 2007–2014（low）, using a regime shift identification method. The authors then compare the associations between autumn Arctic sea ice and winter climate anomalies over central and eastern Eurasia for the three epochs with a focus on extreme events. The results show robust and detectable signals of Arctic sea ice loss in weather and climate over western Siberia and East Asia. Associated with sea ice loss, the latitude（speed） of the jet stream shifts southward（reduces）,the wave extent amplifies, and blocking high events increase over the Ural Mountains, leading to increased frequency of cold air outbreaks extending from central Asia to northeast china. These associations bear a high degree of similarity to the observed atmospheric anomalies during the low sea ice epoch. By contrast, the patterns of atmospheric anomalies for the high sea ice epoch are different from those congruent with sea ice variability, which is related to the persistent negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation.

关键词： Arctic sea ice regime shift climate extreme events

Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South china and Indochina

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1184-1200,I0022-I0034页

作者： Bin TANG Wenting HU Anmin DUAN Yimin liu Wen BAO Yue XIN Xianyi YANG state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 101408China state key laboratory of Marine Environmental Science College of Ocean and Earth SciencesXiamen UniversityXiamen 361005China chinese academy of sciences the CAS Institutes of Science and DevelopmentBeijing 101408China School of Public Policy and Management University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South china and Indochina(INCSC)in recent *** the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this *** on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are *** indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global *** changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of *** only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South china,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in ***,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these ***,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

关键词： CMIP6 heavy precipitation extreme drought South china Indochina economic impact

Reduced Spring Precipitation Bias and Associated Physical Causes over South china in FGOALS-f3 Climate Models:Experiments with the Horizontal Resolutions

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第4期38卷 784-804页

作者： Peng ZI Yimin liu Jiandong LI Ruowen YANG Bian HE Qing BAO Department of atmospheric Science Yunnan UniversityKunming 650504 state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029

Considerable spring precipitation occurs over South china(SC),a region that is adjacent to large-scale Asian topography and *** reasonable simulation is crucial for improving regional climate *** study investigates spring precipitation biases over SC and their possible causes in atmosphere-only and coupled Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System finite-volume version 3(FGOALS-f3) models with different horizontal *** performance of spring precipitation simulation over SC varies across different FGOALS-f3 model versions,with the best reproducibility in the high-resolution coupled model(25 km).In the low-resolution atmosphere-only model(100–125 km),the precipitation dry bias over SC is closely linked to overestimated surface sensible forcing over the eastern Tibetan Plateau(TP),which weakens the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific(SAWP) through regional circulation *** contrast,the high-resolution atmosphere-only model further amplifies surface thermal forcing in the Asian continents,causing intensified land–sea thermal contrast between the Southeast Asian continents and western Pacific,enhanced southerly winds and SAWP,and increased water vapor transport into ***,the reduced middle–high level cold bias over 10°–30°N in the high-resolution atmosphere-only model intensifies the East Asian westerly jet and ascent over SC,leading to enhanced spring precipitation *** high-resolution coupled model simulation not only reduces sea surface cold bias over the Bay of Bengal,thus intensifying the Indian–Burma trough and strengthening low-level water vapor transport into SC,but also enhances ascent over *** a result,the high-resolution coupled model better reproduces the magnitude and pattern of spring precipitation over SC than its atmosphere-only *** with low-resolution models,the domain-mean spring precipitation dry bias decreases by 11.2% over SC in the high-resolution atmosphere-only mod

关键词： South china spring precipitation high resolution Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System finite-volume version 3(FGOALS-f3)models simulation

Variation of Sea Ice Temperature from chinaRE 2003 and Its Application on Sea Ice Model Evaluation

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2009年第1期2卷 57-61页

作者： Zhang Zhanhai liu jiping key laboratory for Polar Science Polar Research Institute of China Shanghai 200129 China state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

Variation of vertical profiles of sea ice temperature and adjacent atmosphere and ocean temperatures were measured by ice drifting buoys deployed in the northeast Chukchi Sea as part of the 2003 chinese Arctic Research *** buoy observations (September 2003 to February 2005) show that the cooling of the ice began in late September,propagated down through the ice,reaching the bottom of the ice in December,and continued throughout the *** winter 2003/04,some obvious warmings were observed in the upper portion of the ice in response to major warmings in the overlying atmosphere associated with the periodicity of storms in the northeast Chukchi *** is found that the melt season at the buoy site in 2004 was about 15% longer than *** buoy observed vertical ice temperature profiles were used as a diagnostic for sea ice model *** results show that the simulated ice temperature profiles have large discrepancies as compared with the observations.

关键词： Sea ice temperature ice drifting buoy sea ice model

A semi-analytical model for the propagation of Rossby waves in slowly varying flow

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chinese Science Bulletin 2011年第25期56卷 2727-2731页

作者： liu Fei CHAO jiping HUANG Gang FENG LiCheng key laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaii at Manoa Honolulu 96822 USA National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing 100081 China state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100083 China

Instead of using complicated general circulation models (GCMs), a simple semi-analytical model based on ray theory has been used to study energy evolution and ray path of Rossby waves in slowly varying mean flows. Our model yields similar results to those calculated from barotropic models, and also provides a chance to study Rossby waves in the slowly varying flows with both vertical and meridional shears. The model results show that upward Rossby waves can only grow in westerlies, and decay when further ascend. The baroclinic Rossky waves are restrained by the β effect in lower latitude. In the westerly jet with meridional and vertical shears, the barotropic Rossby waves originated from south of the westerly jet, and these can grow while propagating upper-northward. The baroclinic Rossby waves originated from north of the westerly jet and can grow while propagating upward and southward. Such a semi-analytical model provides a simple forecasting tool to allow study of the local weather anomalies to the heating/topography forcing associated with the global warming.

关键词： Rossby波半解析模型传播模式大气环流模型变流西风急流 GCMS 射线路径

The Tibetan Plateau bridge:Influence of remote teleconnections from extratropical and tropical forcings on climate anomalies

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第1期17卷 28-33页

作者： Yimin liu Wei Yu Jilan Jiang Tingting Ma Jiangyu Mao Guoxiong Wu state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of chinese academy of sciences BeijingChina School of atmospheric sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversitySouthern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiChina Guangdong Province key laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiChina

本文回顾了青藏高原桥梁作用方面的最新研究进展,涉及北大西洋气候异常对春,夏亚洲季风和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件的遥相关影响,热带海洋异常和中国东部极端气候异常之间的联系以及华南春雨的季节内变化等.介绍了年际时间尺度上,冬... 详细信息

本文回顾了青藏高原桥梁作用方面的最新研究进展,涉及北大西洋气候异常对春,夏亚洲季风和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件的遥相关影响,热带海洋异常和中国东部极端气候异常之间的联系以及华南春雨的季节内变化等.介绍了年际时间尺度上,冬-春季北大西洋海表温度强迫如何影响南亚季风的季节性转变以及随后ENSO事件的触发.5月份青藏高原上空显著的负感热斜压结构,为北大西洋影响亚洲季风和ENSO提供了桥梁效应,夏季北大西洋涛动与华东夏季降水变化显著相关,高原潜热在这一关系中起着桥梁作用.另一方面,这种高原桥梁效应也存在于从热带海洋异常到东亚夏季极端降水事件的连接中,以及从中纬度波列到华南春雨准双周振荡的联系中.

关键词：青藏高原桥梁作用遥相关北大西洋厄尔尼诺-南方涛动热带对流气候异常和极端事件

Correcting Climate Model Sea Surface Temperature Simulations with Generative Adversarial Networks:Climatology,Interannual Variability,and Extremes

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1299-1312页

作者： Ya WANG Gang HUANG Baoxiang PAN Pengfei LIN Niklas BOERS Weichen TAO Yutong CHEN BO liu Haijie LI state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao 266237China College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Earth System Modelling School of Engineering and DesignTechnical University of MunichOttobrunn 85521Germany Potsdam institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam 14412Germany Department of Mathematics and Global Systems institute University of ExeterExeter EX44QEUK CMA Earth System modeling and Prediction Centre(CEMC) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China

Climate models are vital for understanding and projecting global climate change and its associated ***,these models suffer from biases that limit their accuracy in historical simulations and the trustworthiness of future *** these challenges requires addressing internal variability,hindering the direct alignment between model simulations and observations,and thwarting conventional supervised learning ***,we employ an unsupervised Cycle-consistent Generative Adversarial Network(CycleGAN),to correct daily Sea Surface Temperature(SST)simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2(CESM2).Our results reveal that the CycleGAN not only corrects climatological biases but also improves the simulation of major dynamic modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode,as well as SST ***,it substantially corrects climatological SST biases,decreasing the globally averaged Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)by 58%.Intriguingly,the CycleGAN effectively addresses the well-known excessive westward bias in ENSO SST anomalies,a common issue in climate models that traditional methods,like quantile mapping,struggle to ***,it substantially improves the simulation of SST extremes,raising the pattern correlation coefficient(PCC)from 0.56 to 0.88 and lowering the RMSE from 0.5 to *** enhancement is attributed to better representations of interannual,intraseasonal,and synoptic scales *** study offers a novel approach to correct global SST simulations and underscores its effectiveness across different time scales and primary dynamical modes.

关键词： generative adversarial networks model bias deep learning El Niño-Southern Oscillation marine heatwaves