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基于加密观测的重庆暴雨预警等级标准确定

气象 2024年第7期50卷 868-876页

作者：王颖翟丹华廖要明康俊杨宝钢中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室重庆401147 重庆市气候中心重庆401147 重庆市气象台重庆401147 国家气候中心北京100081

基于重庆市2011—2021年2066个加密观测自动气象站小时雨量和暴雨灾情数据,利用暴雨过程滑动抽样和百分位法确定区县暴雨预警信号发布标准及全市暴雨灾害风险预警等级标准,为重庆地方部门启动暴雨应急响应提供参考。结果表明:重庆设气... 详细信息

基于重庆市2011—2021年2066个加密观测自动气象站小时雨量和暴雨灾情数据,利用暴雨过程滑动抽样和百分位法确定区县暴雨预警信号发布标准及全市暴雨灾害风险预警等级标准,为重庆地方部门启动暴雨应急响应提供参考。结果表明:重庆设气象主管机构的34个区县累计发生5363次暴雨过程,平均每个区县每年出现14.3次,选取1、3、12 h作为暴雨过程预警信号发布参考历时;各历时雨量升序排列后按照30%~50%、70%~80%、90%~95%、99%~99.9%百分位区间取整,得到暴雨蓝、黄、橙、红预警等级阈值分别是:1 h-30-50-70-100 mm,3 h-50-70-100-150 mm,12 h-70-100-150-250 mm;区县不同预警信号的致灾概率随信号增强、历时增加而增大,综合各历时最高预警等级和最大致灾概率,各区县平均每年发布暴雨蓝、黄、橙、红预警5.4、4.0、1.3、0.18次,致灾概率分别是30%、60%、85%、95%;全市累计出现114次区域暴雨过程,根据暴雨过程可能受灾区县个数发布暴雨灾害风险预警等级,平均每年发布Ⅳ级5.3次、Ⅲ级3.1次、Ⅱ级1.6次、Ⅰ级0.1次,与区县预警信号发布频次基本一致,符合预警发布规律。

关键词：暴雨预警信号暴雨过程滑动抽样法百分位法致灾概率暴雨灾害预警

Dust storms evolution in Taklimakan Desert and its correlation with climatic parameters

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2008年第4期18卷 415-424页

作者： XIAO Fengjin ZHOU Caiping liao yaoming Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center Beijing 100081 China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China

Based on the sand dust storms data and climatic data in 12 meteorological stations around sand dust storm originating areas of the Taklimakan Desert, we analyzed the trends of the number of dust storm days from 1960 to 2005 as well as their correlations with temperature, precipitation, wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed 〉 5 m/s. The results show that the frequency of dust storm events in the Taklimakan region decreased with the elapse of time. Except Ruoqiang and Minfeng, in the other 10 meteorological stations, the frequency of dust storm events reduces, and in 4 meteorological stations of Kuqa, Korla, Kalpin and Hotan, the frequency of dust storm events distinctly decreases. The temperature has an increasing trend, while the average wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed ≥ 5 m/s have decreasing trends. The correlation analysis between the number of days of dust storms and climatic parameters demonstrates that wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed 〉 5 m/s have strong positive correlation with the number of days of dust storms, with the correlations coefficients being 0.743 and 0.720 （p〈0.01）, respectively, which indicates that strong wind is the direct factor resulting in sand dust storms. Whereas precipitation has significant negative correlation with the number of days of dust storms （p〈0.01）, and the prior annual precipitation has also negative correlation, which indicates that the prior precipitation restrains the occurrence of sand dust storms, but this restraining action is weaker than the same year＇s precipitation. Temperature has negative correlation with the number of dust storm days, with a correlations coefficient of -0.433 （p〈0.01）, which means that temperature change also has impacts on the occurrence of dust storm events in the Taklimakan region.

关键词： sand dust storm climatic parameter dust storm originating area Taklimakan Desert

Construction and Application of a Climate Risk Index for China

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2018年第6期32卷 937-949页

作者： Yujie WANG Lianchun SONG Dianxiu YE Zhe WANG Rong GAO Xiucang LI Yizhou YIN Zunya WANG yaoming liao Northwest Climate Center of Gansu Meteorological Bureau Lanzhou 730020 National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Caixin Insight Group Beijing 100027

In the context of global warming,China is facing with increasing climate *** is imperative to develop quantitative indices to reflect the climate risks caused by extreme weather/climate events and adverse climatic conditions in association with different *** on the observations at 2288 meteorological stations in China and the meteorological disasters data,a set of indices are developed to measure climate risks due to water-logging,drought,high temperature,cryogenic freezing,and typhoon.A statistical method is then used to construct an overall climate risk index(CRI)for China from these individual *** is a good correspondence between these indices and historical climatic *** CRI,the index of water-logging by rain,and the high temperature index increase at a rate of 0.28,0.37,and 0.65 per decade,respectively,from 1961 to *** cryogenic freezing index is closely related to changes in the consumer price index for *** high temperature index is correlated with the consumption of energy and *** correlation between the yearly growth in claims on household property insurance and the sum of the water-logging index and the typhoon index in the same year is as high as *** the growth rate of claims on agricultural insurance and the annual growth rate of hospital inpatients are positively correlated with the *** year-on-year growth in the number of domestic tourists is significantly negatively correlated with the CRI in the same *** efforts are needed to develop regional CRIs.

关键词： climate risk index construction economic activities correlation application and services

Spatial and temporal variations and controlling factors of potential evapotranspiration in China:1956-2000

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2006年第1期16卷 3-12页

作者： GAO Ge CHEN Deliang REN Guoyu CHEN Yu liao yaoming Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China Regional Climate Group Earth Sciences Centre Goeteborg University Goeteborg Sweden

Based on the climatic data of 580 stations in China during 1956 and 2000, potential evapotranspiration are calculated using the Penman-Monteith Method recommended by FAO. The spatial and temporal distributions of the potential evapotranspiration over China and the temporal trends of the regional means for 10 major river basins and whole China are analyzed. Through a partial correlation analysis, the major climate factors which affect the temporal change of the potential evapotranspiration are analyzed. Major results are drawn as follows： 1） The seasonal and annual potential evapotranspiration for China as a whole and for most basins show decline tendencies during the past 45 years; for the Songhua River Basin there appears a slightly increasing trend. 2） Consequently, the annual potential evapotranspirations averaged over 1980-2000 are lower than those for the first water resources assessment （1956-1979） in most parts of China. Exceptions are found in some areas of Shandong Peninsula, western and middle basins of the rivers in Southwest China, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as well as the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers, which may have brought about disadvantages to the exploration and utilization of water resources. 3） Generally, sunshine duration, wind speed and relative humidity have greater impact on the potential evapotranspiration than temperature. Decline tendencies of sunshine duration and/or wind speed in the same period appear to be the major causes for the negative trend of the potential evapotranspiration in most areas.

关键词： potential evapotranspiration Penman-Monteith formula trend controlling factors China

Stochastic modeling of daily precipitation in China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2004年第4期14卷 417-426页

作者：廖要明张强陈德良 National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081ChinaLaboratory of Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081ChinaLaboratory of Climate StudiesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081ChinaEarth Sciences CenterGothenburg UniversitySweden

A stochastic model for daily precipitation simulation in China was developedbased on the framework of a 'Richardson-type' weather generator that is an important tool instudying impacts of weather/climate on a variety of systems including ecosystem and risk *** purpose of this work is to develop a weather generator for applications in China. The focus ison precipitation simulation since determination of other weather variables such as temperature isdependent on precipitation simulation. A framework of first order Markov Chain with GammaDistribution for daily precipitation is adopted in this work. Based on this framework, fourparameters of precipitation simulation for each month at 672 stations all over China were determinedusing daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2000. Compared with previous works, our estimation forthe parameters was made for more stations and longer observations, which makes the weather generatormore applicable and reliable. Spatial distributions of the four parameters are analyzed in aregional climate context. The seasonal variations of these parameters at five stations representingregional differences are discussed. Based on the estimated monthly parameters at 672 stations, dailyprecipitations for any period can be simulated. A 30-year simulation was made and compared withobservations during 1971-2000 in terms of annual and monthly statistics. The results aresatisfactory, which demonstrates the usefulness of the weather generator.

关键词： weather generator precipitation markov Chain gamma distribution China

淮河发生流域性大洪水江南华南大范围高温干旱——2007年7月

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气象 2007年第10期33卷 124-125页

作者：廖要明国家气候中心北京100081

7月,全国平均气温为21.9℃,比常年同期偏高0.5℃,其中浙江、广东区域平均气温为历史同期最高值,福建为次高值.全国平均降水量为121.8mm,较常年同期(116.8mm)略偏多,但降水分布不均,其中新疆区域平均降水量为历史同期最大值,重庆、河南... 详细信息

7月,全国平均气温为21.9℃,比常年同期偏高0.5℃,其中浙江、广东区域平均气温为历史同期最高值,福建为次高值.全国平均降水量为121.8mm,较常年同期(116.8mm)略偏多,但降水分布不均,其中新疆区域平均降水量为历史同期最大值,重庆、河南为次大值,广东为最小值,内蒙古、黑龙江为次小值.月内,淮河发生仅次于1954年的流域性大洪水;重庆、四川、山东、新疆、云南等地遭受暴雨袭击,部分地区受灾严重;江南、华南以及黑龙江、内蒙古东部等地的部分地区出现了严重干旱;江南、华南出现大范围持续高温天气;雷雨大风、冰雹、龙卷等局地强对流天气频发;热带风暴桃芝7月5日在广西东兴市登陆.

关键词：高温干旱大洪水流域性平均降水量淮河华南江南平均气温

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中国日降水量小于不同阈值日数时空分布特征

地理学报 2012年第3期67卷 321-336页

作者：廖要明陈德亮谢云北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室地理学与遥感科学学院北京100875 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室国家气候中心北京100081 哥德堡大学地球科学中心

利用中国672个站点1951-2010年的逐日降水资料,系统分析了全国各地日降水量小于0.1mm、1mm、5mm和10mm不同阈值的日数、平均持续日数、最长持续日数和持续10天以上过程出现频次等要素的时空分布特征,并分别选择齐齐哈尔、乌鲁木齐、北... 详细信息

利用中国672个站点1951-2010年的逐日降水资料,系统分析了全国各地日降水量小于0.1mm、1mm、5mm和10mm不同阈值的日数、平均持续日数、最长持续日数和持续10天以上过程出现频次等要素的时空分布特征,并分别选择齐齐哈尔、乌鲁木齐、北京、昆明、常德、南京、汕头和海口8个代表站点,分析了各变量的历史演变趋势。结果表明,全国日降水量小于0.1mm、1mm、5mm和10mm日数、平均持续日数、平均最长持续日数、极端最长持续日数以及日降水量小于0.1m持续10天以上过程发生频次的时空分布特征基本相似,空间上自西北向东南方向递减,时间上冬、秋季多,春、夏季少,这与我国气候干旱的时空分布特点基本一致;而全国日降水量小于1mm、5mm和10mm持续10天以上过程出现频次的时空分布特征,与我国实际干旱灾害的发生规律基本一致,高值中心出现在华北、黄淮、江淮、江南等地,发生时间集中在春、夏季。全国主要区域代表站点日降水量小于0.1mm日数、平均持续日数、最长持续日数基本都呈增加趋势,且南方强于北方;日降水量小于1mm、5mm和10mm日数、平均持续日数和最长持续日数在西部地区,特别是西北地区表现出较为明显的减少趋势,其中乌鲁木齐日降水量小于5mm和10mm平均持续日数线性减少趋势分别达2.0d/10a和7.5d/10a,最长持续日数线性减少趋势分别达9.3d/10a和11.8d/10a,呈现出明显的湿润化趋势。

关键词：干旱持续日数时空分布气候变化中国

BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器非降水变量模拟参数气候变化特征

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地理学报 2013年第3期68卷 414-427页

作者：廖要明陈德亮谢云中国气象局气候研究开放实验室国家气候中心北京100081 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室地理学与遥感科学学院北京100875 哥德堡大学地球科学中心

利用中国699个气象站点1951-2007年的逐日最高气温、最低气温和日照时数资料,分1951-1978年和1979-2007年两个时段分析了气候变化对BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器中我国各地逐日非降水变量模拟参数的影响。结果表明,最高气温、最低气温和日照时... 详细信息

利用中国699个气象站点1951-2007年的逐日最高气温、最低气温和日照时数资料,分1951-1978年和1979-2007年两个时段分析了气候变化对BCC/RCG-WG天气发生器中我国各地逐日非降水变量模拟参数的影响。结果表明,最高气温、最低气温和日照时数三个变量平均值傅立叶级数展开式的年平均值和基波振幅较标准差傅立叶级数展开式的年平均值和基波振幅的变化幅度明显偏大,而平均值傅立叶级数展开式的基波位相变化幅度较标准差的基波位相变化幅度明显偏小;三个变量当天以及后延一天之间的相关系数的绝对变化较小。说明在气候变化背景下,最高气温等三个非降水变量的年平均值和年内变幅有明显的变化,而三个变量年际间的变异、峰值出现时间以及各变量之间的相关性变化较小。

关键词： BCC RCG-WG天气发生器非降水变量模拟参数气候变化中国

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中国天气发生器降水模拟参数的气候变化特征

地理学报 2009年第7期64卷 871-878页

作者：廖要明陈德亮高歌谢云北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室地理学与遥感科学学院北京100875 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室国家气候中心北京100081 哥德堡大学地球科学中心

利用中国672个站点1951-2007年的逐日降水资料,分1951-1978和1979-2007两个时段分析了中国天气发生器BCC/RCG-WG降水模拟参数的气候变化特征。结果表明,在气候变化背景条件下,我国各地干日到湿日的降水转移概率P(WD)和湿日到湿日的降水... 详细信息

利用中国672个站点1951-2007年的逐日降水资料,分1951-1978和1979-2007两个时段分析了中国天气发生器BCC/RCG-WG降水模拟参数的气候变化特征。结果表明,在气候变化背景条件下,我国各地干日到湿日的降水转移概率P(WD)和湿日到湿日的降水转移概率P(WW)除了西部部分地区有增大的趋势外,其余大部地区均有减小的趋势。相对于P(WW),全国各地P(WD)的减小幅度更大。日降水量GAMMA分布形态参数ALPHA除西北地区西部部分地区有减小趋势外,其余大部地区略有增大趋势,尺度参数BETA在全国各地基本都保持增大的趋势,其中西北地区西部等地增大趋势尤为明显。相对于BETA的变化幅度,ALPHA的减小幅度较小,基本在6%以内。

关键词：天气发生器降水气候变化中国