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Scenario simulation of water retention services under land use/cover and climate changes: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

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Journal of Arid Land 2022年第4期14卷 390-410页

作者： SUN Dingzhao LIANG Youjia PENG Shouzhang State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau Institute of Water and Soil ConservationChinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water ResourcesYangling 712100China School of Resources and Environmental Engineering Wuhan University of TechnologyWuhan 430070China Institute of Surveying and Mapping Guizhou Geology and Mineral Exploration BureauGuiyang 550018China

Comprehensive assessments of ecosystem services in environments under the influences of human activities and climate change are critical for sustainable regional ecosystem management. Therefore,integrated interdisciplinary modelling has become a major focus of ecosystem service assessment. In this study, we established a model that integrates land use/cover change(LUCC), climate change, and water retention services to evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of water retention services in the Loess Plateau of China in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050). An improved Markov-Cellular Automata(Markov-CA) model was used to simulate land use/land cover patterns, and ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to simulate and assess water retention services from 2000 to 2050 under six combined scenarios, including three land use/land cover scenarios(historical scenario(HS), ecological protection scenario(EPS), and urban expansion scenario(UES)) and two climate change scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP is the representative concentration pathway). LUCCs in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050) are dominated by transformations among agricultural land, urban land and grassland. Urban land under UES increased significantly by 0.63×10^(3) km^(2)/a, which was higher than the increase of urban land under HS and EPS. In the Loess Plateau, water yield decreased by 17.20×10^(6) mm and water retention increased by 0.09×10^(6) mm in the historical period(2000–2015),especially in the Interior drainage zone and its surrounding areas. In the future(2020–2050), the pixel means of water yield is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(96.63 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(95.46mm), and the pixel means of water retention is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(1.95 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(1.38 mm). RCP4.5-EPS shows the highest total water retention capacity on the plateau scale among the six combined scenarios, with the value of 1.27×10^(6) mm. Ecological restoration projects in the Loess Plateau have enha

关键词： water retention water yield land use/cover change climate change representative concentration pathway Markov-Cellular Automata model Loess Plateau

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Simulating land-use change and its effect on biodiversity conservation in a watershed in northwest China

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Ecosystem Health and Sustainability 2017年第5期3卷 13-23页

作者： youjia liang Lijun Liu School of Resources and Environmental Engineering Wuhan University of TechnologyWuhanChina School of Navigation Wuhan University of TechnologyWuhanChina

Introduction:Land-use management strategies play a major role in biodiversity change.In many parts of the world,local governments are under increasing pressure to regulate human activity to mitigate negative impacts on ecosystems.Outcomes/other:This study aimed to analyze the effects of different land-use patterns on biodiversity change across a typical artificial desert watershed.We first analyzed land-cover change based on past and future management scenarios in a watershed spanning Gaotai,Linze,and Ganzhou counties in northwest China.We then analyzed the effect of different land-use patterns on biodiversity change in the watershed.We found that the crucial landcover changes are likely to occur in the wetland reserves and areas established for the Grain for Green Project around the oases,and such changes could affect biodiversity throughout the entire watershed landscape.Discussion:The use of spatial analysis to illustrate explicit changes in ecosystems is useful in fostering biodiversity awareness and the need for decision-making at different scales.Conclusion:Thus,these findings indicate that land-use management strategies for the middle and southeast parts of the watershed are particularly important for future management of biodiversity and the integrated ecosystem services of the entire watershed landscape.

关键词： Land-use management biodiversity scenario analysis spatial modeling

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Identifying eco-functional zones on the Chinese Loess Plateau using ecosystem service bundles

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Regional Sustainability 2023年第4期4卷 425-440页

作者： WU Fan LIANG Youjia LIU Lijun YIN Zhangcai HUANG Jiejun School of Resources and Environmental Engineering Wuhan University of TechnologyWuhan430070China College of Resources and Environment Yangtze UniversityWuhan430100China

Optimizing the function of ecosystem services(ESs)is vital for implementing regional ecological management strategies.In this study,we used multi-source data and integrated modelling methods to assess the spatiotemporal variations in eight typical ESs on the Chinese Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2015,including grain production,raw material provision,water conservation,carbon storage service,soil conservation,oxygen production,recreation,and net primary productivity(NPP)services.Then,we divided the ecosystem service bundles(ESBs)according to relationships among the eight ESs,obtaining four types of eco-functional areas at the county(city or banner or district)level based on the spatial clustering of similarities in different ES types.We also identified and assessed the contributions of influencing factors to these eco-functional areas using principal component analysis(PCA)across spatiotemporal scales.We found that the spatiotemporal variations in different ESs were noticeable,with an overall increase in grain production and soil conservation services,no significant change in carbon storage service,and overall decreases in raw material provision,water conservation,oxygen production,recreation,and NPP services.From 2000 to 2015,the number of significant synergistic ES pairs decreased,while that of significant trade-off pairs increased.To the changes of ESBs in the eco-functional areas,the results indicated that the indirect loss of these ESs from forest and grassland due to urban expansion should be reduced in ecological development area(ESB 2)and multi ecological functional area(ESB 3).Meanwhile,crop planting structures and planting densities should be adjusted to reduce ES trade-offs associated with water conservation service in grain-producing area(ESB 4).Lastly,ESB-based ecofunctional zoning can be used to improve ecological restoration management strategies and optimize ecological compensation schemes in ecologically fragile area(ESB 1).

关键词： Ecosystem services Trade-offs Synergy Land use/land cover Climate change Principal component analysis(PCA) Chinese Loess Plateau

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An integrated analysis approach to LUCC at regional scale:A case study in the Ganzhou District of Zhangye City,China

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2012年第4期4卷 320-329页

作者： youjia liang ZhongMin Xu Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of SciencesLan.zhouGansu 730000China

Land use/cover change （LUCC） models are helpful tools for analyzing driving forces and processes of land use changes, assessing ecological impacts of land use change and decision-making for land use planning. However, no single model is able to capture all the essential key processes to explore land use change at different spatial-temporal scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and macro-ecological impacts. Taken Ganzhou District as a case study, this paper describes an integrated analysis （IA） ap- proach by combining with system dynamics （SD） model, the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） model and landscape indices method to analyze land use dynamics at different spatial-temporal scales. The SD model was used to calculate and predict demands for different land use types at the macro-scale as a whole during 2000-2035. The LUCC process was simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply by using the CLUE-S model, and Kappa values of the map simulation are 0.86 and 0.81 in 2000 and 2005, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the macro-ecological effect of LUCC and optimized sce- nario managements of land use by using landscape indices method. The IA approach could be used for better understanding the complexity of land use change and provide scientific support for land use planning and management, and the simulation results also could be used as a source data for scenario analysis of different hydrological and ecological processes based on different un- derlying surface of LUCC.

关键词： SD model CLUE-S model LUCC landscape indices scenario analysis

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Integrated assessment of the supply-demand relationship of ecosystem services in the Loess Plateau during 1992-2015

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Ecosystem Health and Sustainability 2022年第1期8卷 200-213页

作者： Dan Wang youjia liang Shouzhang Peng Zhangcai Yin Jiejun Huang School of Resources and Environmental Engineering Wuhan University of TechnologyWuhanChina State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau Institute of Water and Soil ConservationChinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water ResourcesYanglingChina

Landscape alterations and ecosystem services(ES)are crucial elements that affect the socioecological development of ecologically fragile regions.To provide scientific support for the land-use planning and regional ecological restoration to achieve sustainable development goals(SDGs)in the Loess Plateau from 1992 to 2015,this study proposes an integrated assessment framework for assessing the supply-demand match and equilibrium of ES combining potential relationships between landscape alterations,ES,and sustainable development at the county and regional scales.Results show that more than 85%of local counties have a supply-demand mismatch in terms of ecosystem services.Supply-demand distributions for provisioning and supporting services were relatively balanced compared to cultural services,which were imbalanced.Although the overall supply-demand relationship is relatively balanced because of the significant influence of ecological restoration,it shows an increasing trend toward imbalance as human-land conflict is prominent in some regions.SDGs emphasize on specific ES information such as ecosystem conservation,sustainable agriculture,and urban construction.Furtherly,positive impacts from landscape dynamics can improve the supply capacity of the ES and contribute to regional sustainability.

关键词： Ecosystem services landuse/coverage change supply–demand relationship sustainable development goals

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生态系统服务与景观格局集成研究综述

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生态学报 2018年第20期38卷 7159-7167页

作者：梁友嘉刘丽珺武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院武汉430070 武汉理工大学航运学院武汉430000

生态系统服务是综合科学和政策应用的有效工具,可用于应对人类干扰下的景观和生态系统服务的快速退化等复杂生态环境问题。综述生态系统服务与景观格局集成的学科发展、基础理论和模型开发的进展与存在的问题,建立可用的集成建模框架,... 详细信息

生态系统服务是综合科学和政策应用的有效工具,可用于应对人类干扰下的景观和生态系统服务的快速退化等复杂生态环境问题。综述生态系统服务与景观格局集成的学科发展、基础理论和模型开发的进展与存在的问题,建立可用的集成建模框架,并提出知识集成的概念框架:1)在要素层,"政策-决策—景观—生态系统服务—社会经济系统"的跨学科知识反馈环是集成理论基础; 2)在模型层,结构化、多层次的集成模拟模型是核心方法; 3)在数据层,多源数据集成是模拟模型的数据基础。集成生态系统服务与景观格局为区域生态环境治理实践提供了科学参考,能更好地应对生态系统服务科学与应用的挑战。

关键词：生态系统服务景观格局集成建模决策支持

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集成CFD与Kalman滤波的微尺度风电场风功率预报方法

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高原气象 2018年第4期37卷 1061-1073页

作者：刘丽珺梁友嘉武汉理工大学航运学院湖北武汉430063 内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室湖北武汉430063 国家水运安全工程技术研究中心湖北武汉430063 武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院湖北武汉430070

基于Kalman滤波的风功率预测方法难以捕获风电场的风力空间分布特征,集成计算流体力学CFD模型和Kalman滤波能将风资源分布纳入风力发电预报框架,对提高微尺度风能利用率有重要意义。以黄土高原沟壑区的中国华电集团公司甘肃省环县南湫... 详细信息

基于Kalman滤波的风功率预测方法难以捕获风电场的风力空间分布特征,集成计算流体力学CFD模型和Kalman滤波能将风资源分布纳入风力发电预报框架,对提高微尺度风能利用率有重要意义。以黄土高原沟壑区的中国华电集团公司甘肃省环县南湫风电场为研究区,首先利用CFD模拟风电场风速分布特征和划分风区,再利用Kalman滤波订正BJ-RUC模式预报的各风区长时间序列风速变化,并对比不同风区的订正效果,最终基于发电能力评估风电场的风功率预报效果与效益。结果表明:(1)风电场内部的风机均不同程度地受到复杂地形的影响,围绕"马蹄形"山梁和山谷形成明显的"阶梯式"风区,风速差最高达2.78 m·s^(-1);(2)CFD与Kalman滤波的集成订正方法使风速预报准确率由BJ-RUC的20%~30%提高到90%以上,并使风功率预报准确率达到80%以上,显著提高了微尺度沟壑区风速-风功率预报精度;(3)风电场容量因子C_P平均在12.4%~16.8%之间,弃风率η为5.5%~17.5%,表明该电场的风功率预报精度明显受其发电效益制约;(4)还讨论了风电机组监控数据采集控制系统SCADA的数据质量、CFD计算效率和能源部门决策等不确定性因素对风速分区及风功率预报的影响。

关键词：风能 BJ-RUC模式 CFD Kalman滤波弃风率

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黄土高原1995−2050年快速城市增长的时空动态模拟

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2023年第3期14卷 567-580页

作者：梁友嘉刘丽珺武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院武汉430070 长江大学资源与环境学院武汉430100 长江大学油气地球化学与环境湖北省重点实验室武汉430100

随着中国的“黄河流域高质量发展”政策的实施,黄土高原未来的城市增长将进一步快速发展。然而,区域尺度城市增长的时空动态模拟研究还很有限。基于历史土地利用数据和SLEUTH模型模拟,得到1995−2050年1-km分辨率的城市覆盖数据,并利用... 详细信息

随着中国的“黄河流域高质量发展”政策的实施,黄土高原未来的城市增长将进一步快速发展。然而,区域尺度城市增长的时空动态模拟研究还很有限。基于历史土地利用数据和SLEUTH模型模拟,得到1995−2050年1-km分辨率的城市覆盖数据,并利用指标化空间制图方法发展了一种城市增长量化与制图的集成分析方法。在黄土高原的研究表明:城市发展政策、自然环境和行政职能影响了不同等级城市的城市增长速度和空间格局;15个地级市和省会城市在2050年的总面积大约是1995年的8.12倍,1995−2015年和2015−2050年城市总体增长率分别为5.97%和3.2%;总体而言,1995−2015年的城市增长模式主要是跨越式增长,21世纪30年代以后,边缘增长模式将成为城市增长的主导模式,内生型增长模式仅对兰州、西宁等个别河谷型城市发展具有贡献作用。基于高分辨率地图集的多层次城市增长时空变化分析可为区域城市规划和可持续城市管理提供重要信息。

关键词： SLEUTH 模拟城市增长模式城市化城市等级

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基于改进Markov-CA模型的黄土高原土地利用多情景模拟

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地球信息科学学报 2021年第5期23卷 825-836页

作者：孙定钊梁友嘉武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院武汉430070 贵州省地质矿产勘查开发局测绘院贵阳550018

土地利用/覆被的时空变化研究能为区域生态环境恢复和生态系统集成管理提供科学支持。集成Logistic回归模型、改进的Markov与FLUS模型模拟黄土高原2020—2050年3种典型情景土地利用变化。发现各情景土地利用面积变化及空间置换转移主要... 详细信息

土地利用/覆被的时空变化研究能为区域生态环境恢复和生态系统集成管理提供科学支持。集成Logistic回归模型、改进的Markov与FLUS模型模拟黄土高原2020—2050年3种典型情景土地利用变化。发现各情景土地利用面积变化及空间置换转移主要集中在农用地、草地和城镇用地;历史趋势延续情景下农用地减少15205 km^(2),草地、城镇用地分别增加2742 km^(2)和16007 km^(2);生态保育管护情景中草地增加7076 km^(2),林草用地增长存在权衡关系(r_(主要林地-草地)=-0.66),在典型区域的生态恢复管理中应加以重视;城镇发展建设情景中农用地减少20256 km^(2),城镇用地增加22032 km^(2),变化均达到极值,其中,南部城镇扩张与农用地减少存在强权衡关系(r_(农用地-城镇用地)=-1)。改进的Markov-FLUS模型适用于黄土高原地区的土地利用模拟,情景分析可有效揭示区域生态保护与城镇扩张的阈值变化,为区域土地利用政策权衡管理和水土保育提供科学依据。

关键词： FLUS模型 Markov模型土地利用/覆被变化生态保育城镇扩张多情景模拟权衡分析黄土高原

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柴油烃类族组成分离技术研究进展

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化工学报 2024年第1期75卷 20-32页

作者：王尤佳赵亮高金森徐春明中国石油大学(北京)重质油全国重点实验室北京102249

随着我国炼油技术的不断提高与新能源的开发利用,燃料市场趋向饱和,柴油出现明显过剩。将柴油通过分离手段转油为化,实现族组分中芳烃/非芳烃的高效低碳分离,是实现柴油高值化利用、缓解过剩问题的重要途径。首先阐述了我国柴油族组成... 详细信息

随着我国炼油技术的不断提高与新能源的开发利用,燃料市场趋向饱和,柴油出现明显过剩。将柴油通过分离手段转油为化,实现族组分中芳烃/非芳烃的高效低碳分离,是实现柴油高值化利用、缓解过剩问题的重要途径。首先阐述了我国柴油族组成的分布规律,提出针对直馏柴油与催化裂化柴油(FCC柴油)进行分离时切入点的差异;详细介绍了柴油中芳烃与链烷烃的分离技术,如溶剂萃取、膜分离、吸附分离、尿素络合等,并分析讨论了各种分离技术的优劣势以及未来研究方向;最后对柴油中芳烃与链烷烃的分离进行了总结与展望。

关键词：柴油分离溶剂萃取膜吸附脱蜡

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