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第2.届中国气象学会年会气候变化分会场

作者： li zhen1,2.and {2. zhong-wei1 1key laboratory of Regional climate-environment in temperate east asia,{12., chinese academy of sciences, beijing 10002., china 2.raduate university of chinese academy of sciences, beijing 100049, china

Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960-2.08 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in china were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） software package. Typical biases in the dataset were illustrated via the cases of beijing （BJ）, Wutaishan （WT）, ürümqi （UR） and Henan （HN） stations. The homogenized dataset shows a mean warming trend of 0.2.1/0.193/0.344oC/decade for the annual series of Tm/Tmax/Tmin, s{2.ghtly smaller than that of the original dataset by 0.006/0.009/0.007oC/decade. However, considerable differences between the adjusted and original datasets were found at the local scale. The adjusted Tmin series shows a significant warming trend almost everywhere for all seasons, while there are a number of stations with an insignificant trend in the original dataset. The adjusted Tm data exhibit significant warming trends annually as well as for the autumn and winter seasons in northern china, and coo{2.ng trends only for the summer in the middle reaches of the yangtze River and parts of central china and for the spring in southwestern china, while the original data show coo{2.ng trends at several stations for the annual and seasonal scales in the Qinghai, Shanxi, Hebei, and Xinjiang provinces. The adjusted Tmax data exhibit coo{2.ng trends for summers at a number of stations in the mid-lower reaches of the yangtze and Yellow Rivers and for springs and winters at a few stations in southwestern china, while the original data show coo{2.ng trends at three/four stations for the annual/autumn periods in the Qinghai and Yunnan provinces. In general, the number of stations with a coo{2.ng trend was much smaller in the adjusted Tm and Tmax dataset than in the original dataset. The coo{2.ng trend for summers is mainly due to coo{2.ng in August. The results of homogenization using MASH appear to be robust;in particular, different groups of stations with consideration of elevation led to m

关键词： daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature series homogenization china MASH climate trend

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Changes in Wind Speed and Wind Speed Extremes in beijing during 1960-2.08 Based on Homogenized Observations

Changes in Wind Speed and Wind Speed Extremes in Beijing dur...

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International Workshop on Urban Weather and climate:Observation and Modeling

作者： li zhen~(1.2),yan zhongwei~(*1),TU Kai~1,liU weidong~3,and WANG Yingchun~4 ~1key laboratory of Regional climate-environment in temperate east asia,institute of atmospheric physics, chinese academy of sciences,beijing 10002.,china ~2.raduate university of the chinese academy of sciences,beijing 100049,china ~3institute of Urban Meteorology,china Meteorological Administration,beijing 100089 ~4beijing Meteorological Bureau,beijing 100089,china

Daily observations of wind speed at 12.stations in the Greater beijing Area during 1960-2.08 were homogenized using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization *** linear trends in the regional mean annual and seasonal(winter,spring,summer and autumn) wind speed series were -0.2.,-0.39,-0.30,-0.1{2. -0.2. m s 10yr,*** showed the greatest magnitude in declining wind speed,followed by spring,autumn and *** annual and seasonal frequencies of wind speed extremes(days) also decreased,more prominently for winter than for the other *** declining trends in wind speed and extremes were formed mainly by some rapid declines during the 1970s and *** maximum declining trend in wind speed occurred at Chaoyang(CY),a station within the central business district(CBD) of beijing with the highest level of *** declining trends were in general smaller in magnitude away from the city center,except for the winter case in which the maximum declining trend shifted northeastward to rural Miyun(MY).The influence of urbanization on the annual wind speed was estimated to be about -0.05 m s(10 yr) during 1960-2.08,accounting for around one fifth of the regional mean declining *** annual and seasonal geostrophic wind speeds around beijing,based on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset,also exhibited decreasing trends,coincident with the results from site observations.A comparative analysis of the MSLP fields between 1966-1975 and 1992.2.01 suggested that the influences of both the winter and summer monsoons on beijing were weaker in the more recent of the two *** is suggested that the bulk of wind in beijing is influenced considerably by urbanization,while changes in strong winds or wind speed extremes are prone to large-scale climate change in the region.

关键词： homogenization daily mean wind speed urbanization mean sea level pressure geostrophic wind east asian monsoon

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Assessment of Central asian heat extremes by statistical downscaling:Validation and future projection for 2.15-2.00

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Advances in climate Change Research 2022年第1期13卷 14-27页

作者： li-Jun FAN zhong-{2. yan Deliang CHEN zhen li key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment Research for temperate east asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Regional climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden

Increasing heatwaves and extreme temperatures have recently been observed across Central asia(CA).Accurately assessing and projecting the changing climate extremes at the local(station)scale required for climate risk management are therefore highly ***,global and regional climate models often fail to represent the statistical distributions of observed daily extreme variables and hence extremes in complex *** this work,we developed a statistical downscaling(SD)model to project summer daily maximum temperature(Tmax)and heatwave indices for 65 meteorological stations in CA toward *** SD model involves first-order autoregression and multiple linear regression using large-scale Tmax and circulation indices(Cis)as predictors,and the model is cross-validated against historical *** local Tmax and heatwave indices are then projected for 2.15-2.00 driven by the output of a global climate model(CNRM-CM6-1)under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP12.,SSP2.5,SSP370,and SSP585).The application of the SD model significantly improves forecasting of the probability distribution(10th/90th percentiles)of Tmax at stations,particularly across mountainous *** model also captures interannual variability and the long-term trend in Tmax,consistent with synoptic-scale *** projections demonstrate strong warming trends of summer Tmax in CA toward 2.00 with rates between 0.35-0.64℃ per decade based on the SSP2.5 and SSP370 ***,heatwave occurrence is projected to rise by 1.0-5.0 and 2.0-7.0 d per decade under the SSP2.5 and SSP370 scenarios,respectively,by ***,intensity,and amplitude of heatwaves rise at greater rates under higher-emission scenarios,particularly in south{12.ern *** proposed SD model serves as a useful tool for assessing local climate extremes,which are needed for regional risk management and policymaking for adaption to climate change.

关键词： Heatwave Statistical downscaling Projection of local climate extremes Central asia

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Assessment of total and extreme precipitation over central asia via statistical downscaling: Added value and multi-model ensemble projection

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Advances in climate Change Research 2023年第1期14卷 62-76页

作者： li-Jun FAN zhong-{2. yan Deliang CHEN zhen li key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of ScienceBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China Regional climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg40530Sweden

Central asia(CA)is highly sensitive and vulnerable to changes in precipitation due to global warming,so the projection of precipitation extremes is essential for local climate risk ***,global and regional climate models often fail to reproduce the observed daily precipitation distribution and hence extremes,especially in areas with complex *** this study,we proposed a statistical downscaling(SD)model based on quantile delta mapping to assess and project eight precipitation indices at 73 meteorological stations across CA driven by ERA5 reanalysis data and simulations of 10 global climate models(GCMs)for present and future(2.81-2.00)periods under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2.5 and SSP585).The reanalysis data and raw GCM outputs clearly underestimate mean precipitation intensity(SDII)and maximum 1-day precipitation(RX1DAY)and overestimate the number of wet days(R1MM)and maximum consecutive wet days(CWD)at stations across ***,the SD model effectively reduces the biases and RMSEs of the modeled precipitation indices compared to the *** it effectively adjusts the distributional biases in the downscaled daily precipitation and indices at the stations across *** addition,it is skilled in capturing the spatial patterns of the observed precipitation ***,SDII and RX1DAY are improved by the SD model,especially in the southeastern mountainous *** the intermediate scenario(SSP2.5),our SD multi-model ensemble projections project significant and robust increases in SDII and total extreme precipitation(R95PTOT)of 0.5 mm d^(-1) and 19.7 mm,respectively,over CA at the end of the 2.st century(2.81-2.00)compared to the present values(1995-2.14).More pronounced increases in indices R95PTOT,SDII,number of very wet days(R10MM),and RX1DAY are projected under the higher emission scenario(SSP585),particularly in the mountainous southeastern *** SD model suggested that SDII and RX1DAY will likely rise more rap

关键词： Local precipitation extremes Statistical downscaling Multi-model ensemble projection Robustness and uncertainty Central asia

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Homogenized Daily Mean/Maximum/Minimum Temperature Series for china from 1960-2.08

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2009年第4期2卷 237-243页

作者： li zhen {2. zhong-wei key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment in temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Graduate university of{2. Beijing 100049 China

Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2.08 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in china were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） software package. Typical biases in the dataset were illustrated via the cases of beijing （B J）, Wutaishan （WT）, Urumqi （UR） and Henan （HN） stations. The homogenized dataset shows a mean warming trend of 0.2.1/0.193/0.344℃/decade for the annual series of Tm/Tmax/Tmin, s{2.ghtly smaller than that of the original dataset by 0.006/0.009/0.007℃/decade. However, considerable differences between the adjusted and original datasets were found at the local scale. The adjusted Tmin series shows a significant warming trend almost everywhere for all seasons, while there are a number of stations with an insignificant trend in the original dataset. The adjusted Tm data exhibit significant warming trends annually as well as for the autumn and winter seasons in northern china, and coo{2.ng trends only for the summer in the middle reaches of the yangtze River and parts of central china and for the spring in southwestern china, while the original data show coo{2.ng trends at several stations for the annual and seasonal scales in the Qinghai, Shanxi, Hebei, and Xinjiang provinces. The adjusted Tmax data exhibit coo{2.ng trends for summers at a number of stations in the mid-lower reaches of the yangtze and Yellow Rivers and for springs and winters at a few stations in southwestern china, while the original data show coo{2.ng trends at three/four stations for the annual/autumn periods in the Qinghai and Yunnan provinces. In general, the number of stations with a coo{2.ng trend was much smaller in the adjusted Tm and Tmax dataset than in the original dataset. The coo{2.ng trend for summers is mainly due to coo{2.ng in August. The results of homogenization using MASH appear to be robust; in particular, different groups of stations with consideration of elevation led to

关键词： daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature series homogenization china MASH climate trend

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Updated Homogenized chinese Temperature Series with Physical Consistency

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2015年第1期8卷 17-22页

作者： li zhen {2. zhong-wei WU Hong-Yi key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment in temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences beijing Meteorological Bureau

Most methods of homogenization of climate data are applied to time series of a single variable, such as daily maximum temperature(Tmax) or daily minimum temperature(Tmin). Consequently, the physical relationship among different variables, e.g., Tmax>Tmin, may be distorted after homogenization of climate series of individual variables. The authors develop a solution to improve consistency among diurnal temperature records, while using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization(MASH) method to homogenize the observation series of daily mean temperature(Tm), Tmin, and Tmax at 545 stations in china for the period 1960–2.11, called CHTM2.0. In the previous version of this homogenized dataset based on MASH(CHTM1.0) for the period 1960–2.08, there are a few records(0.039% of the total) that are physically inconsistent. For developing CHTM2.0, the authors apply additional adjustments for each day with inconsistent temperature records, in order to hold Tmax>Tm>Tmin. Although the additional adjustments are barely influential for estimating long-term climate trends in china as a whole(because very few records are additionally adjusted), the newly introduced solution improves the physical consistency throughout the dataset. It is also helpful for developing more reasonable homogenized climate datasets with regard to physical consistency among multiple variables. Based on CHTM2.0, the annual Tmax/Tm/Tmin series averaged over china for the period 1960–2.11 show significant warming trends of about 0.19/0.2./0.34°C per decade, respectively. Large warming trends of up to 0.42./0.596/ 0.704°C per decade occur in northeastern and northwestern china.

关键词： diurnal temperature records homogenization physica

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Homogenized Daily Relative Humidity Series in china during 1960?2.17

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2020年第4期37卷 318-327页

作者： zhen li {2.wei yan yani ZHU Nicolas FREYCHET Simon TETT key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment in temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China university of chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049China National Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China university of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH89YLUnited Kingdom

Surface relative humidity(RH)is a key element for weather and climate monitoring and ***,RH is not as commonly app{2.ed in studying climate change,partly because the observation series of RH are prone to inhomogeneous biases due to non-climate changes in the observation system.A homogenized dataset of daily RH series from 746 stations in chinese mainland for the period 1960–2.17,chinaRHv1.0,has been ***(685 or 91.82.of the total)station time series were inhomogeneous with one or more break *** major breakpoints occurred in the early 2.00s for many stations,especially in the humid and semi-humid zones,due to the implementation of automated observation across the *** inhomogeneous biases in the early manual records before this change are positive relative to the recent automatic records,for most of the biased station *** are more break points detected by using the MASH(Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization)method,with biases mainly around?0.5%and 0.5%.These inhomogeneous biases are adjusted with reference to the most recent observations for each *** on the adjusted observations,the regional mean RH series of china shows {2.ttle long-term trend during 1960–2.17[0.006%(10 yr)^?1],contrasting with a false decreasing trend[?0.414%(10 yr)?1]in the raw *** is notable that ERA5 reanalysis data match closely with the interannual variations of the raw RH series in china,including the jump in the early 2.00s,raising a caveat for its app{2.cation in studying climate change in the region.

关键词： relative humidity homogenization observation system changes MASH(Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization)

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Impact of Urbanization on Low-Temperature Precipitation in beijing during 1960–2.08

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2014年第1期31卷 48-56页

作者： HAN Zuoqiang yan zhong{2. li zhen liU {2.dong WANG Yingchun key laboratory of Regional {2.–environment for temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Graduate university of {2. academy of Science institute of Urban Meteorology China Meteorological Administration

Daily precipitation and temperature records at 13 stations for the period 1960-2.08 were analyzed to identify climatic change and possible effects of urbanization on low-temperature precipitation [LTP, precipitation of ≥ 0.1 mm d^-1 occurring under a daily minimum temperature （Tmin） of ≤ 0℃] in the greater beijing region （B JR）, where a rapid process of urbaniza tion has taken place over the last few decades. The paper provides a climatological overview of LTP in B JR. LTP contributes 61.7% to the total amount of precipitation in B JR in the cold season （November-March）. There is a slight increasing trend [1.2. mm （10 yr）^-1] in the amount of total precipitation for the cold season during 1960-2.08. In contrast, the amount of LTP decreases by 0.6 mm （10 yr）^-1. The warming rate of Train in B JR is 0.66℃ （10 yr）^-1. Correspondingly, the frequency of LTP decreases with increasing Tmin by -0.67 times per ℃. The seasonal frequency and amount of LTP in southeast B JR （mostly urban sites） are 17%-2.% less than those in the northwestern （rural and montane sites）. The intensity of LTP for the urban sites and northeastern B JR exhibited significant enhancing trends [0.18 and 0.15 mm d^- 1 （10 yr）^- 1, respectively]. The frequency of slight LTP （〈0.2.mm d^-1） significantly decreased throughout B JR [by about -15.74% （10 yr）^-1 in the urban area and northeast B JR], while the contribution of the two heaviest LTP events to total LTP amount significantly increased by 3.2. （10 yr） ^-1.

关键词： urbanization low-temperature precipitation empirical orthogonal function climate change

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Further-Adjusted Long-Term Temperature Series in china Based on MASH

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2018年第8期35卷 13-21页

作者： zhen li {2.wei yan lijuan CAO Phil D. JONES key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment in temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing 100029 China university of the chinese academy of sciences Beijing 100049 China National Meteorological Information Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich Norfolk NR4 7TJ United Kingdom Center of Excellence for climate Change Research/Department of Meteorology King Abdulaziz University Jeddah 21589 Saudi Arabia

A set of homogenized monthly mean surface air temperature （SAT） series at 32.stations in china back to the 19th century had previously been developed based on the RHtest method by Cao et al., but some inhomogeneities remained in the dataset. The present study produces a further-adjusted and updated dataset based on the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） method. The MASH procedure detects 33 monthly temperature records as erroneous outliers and 152.meaningful break points in the monthly SAT series since 192. at 2. stations. The inhomogeneous parts are then adjusted relative to the latest homogeneous part of the series. The new data show significant warming trends during 192.-2.16 at all the stations, ranging from 0.48 to 3.57℃ （100 yr）^-1, with a regional mean trend of 1.65℃ （100 yr）^-1 ; whereas, the previous results ranged from a slight cooling at two stations to considerable warming, up to 4.5℃ （100 yr）^-1. It is suggested that the further-adjusted data are a better representation of the large-scale pattern of climate change in the region for the past century. The new data axe available online at http：//***/10.1192./sciencedb.516.

关键词： homogenization Multiple Analysis of series for homogenization (MASH) monthly temperature series long-term trend china

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Application of Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization to beijing Daily Temperature Series (1960-2.06)

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2010年第4期27卷 777-787页

作者：李珍严中伟 key laboratory of Regional {2.-environment in temperate east asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Graduate university of{2.

Homogenization of climate observations remains a challenge to climate change researchers, especially in cases where metadata （e.g., probable dates of break points） are not always available. To examine the inffuence of metadata on homogenizing climate data, the authors applied the recently developed Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） method to the beijing （BJ） daily temperature series for 1960- 2.06 in three cases with different references：（1） 13M-considering metadata at BJ and 12.nearby stations; （2. 13NOM-considering the same 13 stations without metadata; and （3） 2.NOM-considering 2. further stations and BJ without metadata. The estimated mean annual, seasonal, and monthly inhomogeneities are similar between the 13M and 13NOM cases, while those in the 2.NOM case are slightly different. The detected biases in the BJ series corresponding to the documented relocation dates are as low as -0.71~0C, -0.79~0C, and -0.5~0C for the annual mean in the 3 cases, respectively. Other biases, including those undocumented in metadata, are minor. The results suggest that any major inhomogeneity could be detected via MASH, albeit with minor differences in estimating inhomogeneities based on the different references. The adjusted annual series showed a warming trend of 0.337, 0.316, and 0.365~0C （10 yr）^（-1） for the three cases, respectively, smaller than the estimate of 0.453~0C （10 yr）^（-1） in the original series, mainly due to the relocation-induced biases. The impact of the MASH-type homogenization on estimates of climate extremes in the daily temperature series is also discussed.

关键词： homogenization MASH daily temperature series climate change

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