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Scenario simulation and forecast of land use/cover in northern china

Chinese science Bulletin 2008年第9期53卷 1401-1412页

作者： li yuechen 1,2.3 & he chunyang 3 1 college of geographical science, Chongqing {2. university, Chongqing 400047, china 2.college of Resources and Environmental science, Chongqing university, Chongqing 400044, china 3 college of Resources science & Technology, Beijing {2. university, Beijing 100875, china college of geographical {2. Chongqing Normal University Chongqing 400047 China college of Resources and Environmental science Chongqing University Chongqing 400044 China college of Resources science & Technology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China

Modeling land use/cover scenario changes and its potential impacts on structure and functions of ecosystem in typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use/cover system and ecosystem. Based on the analysis of the existing land use/cover simulation and forecast models, a land use/cover scenario dynamics model by the integration of System Dynamics (SD) model, Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) and Cellular Automata (CA) model is developed with land use/cover scenario changes in northern china in the next 30 years and simulated in this paper. The model is to simulate the land use/cover scenario demands by using a SD model at first, and then allocating the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use/cover suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using BPNN-CA model to satisfy the balance between land use/cover scenario demands and supplies. It integrates the advantages of SD, BPNN and CA. Macro-driving factors and the micro-spatial pattern are also fully taken into account. The BPNN simplifies the identification of the factors’ weights used in CA model and improves the reliability of the simulation results. The simulation accuracy of the model developed in this paper was found to be about 74%. It suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complexity of land use/cover system at different scales to some extent and it is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecosystem. The simulated results also indicate that the urban land, water area and forest will increase significantly, and farmland and unable land will decrease gradually. Obvious land use/cover changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone and the southeast area of northern china.

关键词：土地利用中国北方细胞自动机系统动力学

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Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model

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science china Earth sciences 2005年第11期48卷 1979-1989页

作者： he chunyang, SHI Peijun, CheN Jin, li Xiaobing, PAN Yaozhong, li Jing, li yuechen & li Jinggang Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of china, Beijing normal university college of Resources {12. & Technology, Beijing normal university, Beijing 100875, china 1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education of China Beijing Normal University China 2. college of Resources science & Technology Beijing Normal University 100875 Beijing China

Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system. A Land Use Scenario Dynamics (LUSD) model by the integration of System Dynamics (SD) model and Cellular Automata (CA) model is developed with land use scenario changes in northern china in the next 2. years simulated in this paper. The basic idea of LUSD model is to simulate the land use scenario de-mands by using SD model at first, then allocate the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using CA model to satisfy the balance between land use scenario demands and supply. The application of LUSD model in northern china suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complex behavior of land use system at different scales to some extent and is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecological system. In addition, the simulated results also indicate that obvious land use changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone of northern china in the next 2. years with cultivated land and urban land being the most active land use types.

关键词： system dynamics, cellular automata, scenario, land use, model

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of electric power consumption in Chinese Mainland from 1995 to 2.08 modeled using DMSP/OLS stable nighttime lights data

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Journal of geographical sciences 2012年第1期22卷 125-136页

作者： he chunyang MA Qun {2. Tong YANG Yang {2.U Zhifeng State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University college of Resources science ＆ Technology Beijing Normal University

Electric power consumption （EPC） is one of the basic indices for evaluating electric power use. Obtaining timely and accurate data on the spatiotemporal dynamics of EPC is crucial for understanding and practical deployment of electric power resources. In this study, an EPC model was developed using stable nighttime {2.ghts time-series data from the Defense Meteorological Satel{2.te Program Operational {2.nescan System （DMSP/OLS）. The model was used to reconstruct the spatial patterns of EPC in Chinese Mainland at the county level from 1995 to 2.08. In addition, the spatiotemporal dynamics of EPC were analyzed, and the fol-lowing conclusions were drawn. （1） The EPC model re{2.ably represented the spatiotemporal dynamics of EPC in Chinese Mainland with approximately 70% accuracy. （2. The EPC in most regions of Chinese Mainland was at low to moderate levels, with marked temporal and spatial variations; of high-level EPC, 58.2.% was concentrated in eastern china. Six urban agglomerations （Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou region, Pearl River Delta, Shandong Peninsula, middle-south of {2.aoning Province, and Sichuan Basin） accounted for 10.69% of the total area of Chinese Mainland but consumed 39.2.% of the electricity. （3） The EPC of most regions in Chinese Mainland increased from 1995 to 2.08, and 64% of the mainland area showed a significant increase in EPC. Moderate increases in EPC were found in 61.62. of eastern china and 80.65% of central china from 1995 to 2.08, whereas 75.69% of western china showed no significant increase in EPC. Meanwhile, 77.2.%, 89.35%, and 66.72. of the Shanghai-Nanjing-Hangzhou region, Pearl River Delta, and Shandong Peninsula, respectively, showed high-speed increases in EPC. Moderate increases in EPC occurred in 71.12. and 72.13% of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region and middle-south of {2.aoning Province, respectively, while no significant increase occurred in 56.34% of the Sichuan Basin.

关键词： DMSP/OLS electric power consumption spatiotemporal dynamics Chinese Mainland

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The urbanization process of Bohai Rim in the 1990s by using DMSP/OLS data

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Journal of geographical sciences 2006年第2期16卷 174-182页

作者： he chunyang {2. Jinggang CheN Jing SHI Peijun CheN Jin PAN Yaozhong {2. Jing ZHUO {2. Ichinose Toshiaki Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education of ChinaBeijing Normal University college of Resources science ＆ Technology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875 China Institute of Remote Sensing Applications CAS. Beijing 100101 China Japan National Institute of Environmental Studies 16-2 Onogawa Tsukuba 305-8506 Japan

This paper firstly derived urban information from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational linescan System （DMSP/OLS） data in 1992. 1996 and 1998 with t{2. support of statistical data, and t{2.n developed three basic urban models of polygon-urbanization, line-urbanization and point-urbanization in urban agglomerations from viewpoint of spatial analysis. T{2. conclusions are as follows：（1） Urban patch numbers in t{2. Bohai Rim increased from 1659 to 2.53 with an annual average increase number of about 66. Meanwhile, t{2. small urban patc{2.s accounted for a larger proportion in t{2. region and t{2. patch density increased fast. In addition, t{2. urban barycenter of t{2. region showed a moving trend toward northwest from 1992.to 1998. Urbanization in t{2. Bohai Rim in t{2. 1990s is fast and obvious. （2. Urbanization in t{2. Bohai Rim can be reflected by three basic processes, i.e., t{2. polygon-urbanization around t{2. big cities, t{2. line-urbanization around t{2. transportation lines and t{2. point-urbanization emerging in large areas. Of t{2.m, t{2. polygon-urbanization has been in dominance. It is obviously within an effective range of 3-4 km surrounding t{2. urban patc{2.s. T{2. line-urbanization and point-urbanization in t{2. region was relatively small, both of which showed an obvious increasing trend.

关键词： DMSP/OLS urbanization agglomeration urbanization spatial mode process Bohal Rim

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Understanding cultivated land dynamics and its driving forces in northern china during 1983-2.01

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Journal of geographical sciences 2005年第4期15卷 387-395页

作者： he chunyang {2. Jinggang WANG Yuanyuan SHI Peijun CheN Jin PAN Yaozhong Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education of China Beijing Normal University college of Resources science ＆ Technology Beijing NormalUniversity Beijing 100875 China Institute of Remote Sensing Applications CAS Beijing 100101 China

Based on the long-term serial NOAA/NDVI dataset during 1983-1999 and SPOT/VGT dataset in 2.01, the land use/cover change information in the 13 provinces of northern china was extracted based on the analysis of the cul... 详细信息

Based on the long-term serial NOAA/NDVI dataset during 1983-1999 and SPOT/VGT dataset in 2001, the land use/cover change information in the 13 provinces of northern china was extracted based on the analysis of the cultivated landscape characteristics at first, then the effects of human activities on cultivated land process were explored by GIS and the driving forces of cultivated land change were investigated. The conclusions can be drawn as follows：（1） The constant increase of weak ecological function land as desert and cultivated land and the decrease of the ecological function land of forest and shrub were the main characteristics of the land use/cover change in the 13 provinces from 1983 to 1999, which showed the effects on the ecological adjustment fimction. However, such situations were changed to some extent in the 2000s because of the eco-construction policy of the government. （2） From 1983 to 2001, the Barycenter of cultivated land tended to move from northeast to southwest with the topography and transportation situations being the main influences on the cultivated land distribution. It is found that the cultivated land use intensity decreased noticably with the increase of distance from the main communication arteries. （3） The improvement of the people＇s living standard is closely related with the cultivated land change. The structural adjustment in the agricultural land caused by economic development and the improvement of the people＇s living standard ig an important factor affecting the cultivated land change in northern china from 1983 to 2001

关键词： cultivated land change spatial process driving forces northern china

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